[sfi]

apollo1201, on 2016-April-29, 12:07, said:

Sry for the digression but can someone pls explain why 2NT is better w/o fit vs. 2NT = super acceptance? If respondent is very weak the hand needs to be played in 3C regardless of the fit so to rightside the contract, 3C = no fit (most common answer) is best. When opener super accepts, some of the weak hands will choose 3NT so less hands will be played in 3C anyway so no need to have them bid by opener.
Or did I miss sth?
I agree on 2NT openings, opener bids NT if he doesnt like respondent's minor, but in that case responder is GF+, not here.

Another reason for using 3C as the superaccept rather than 2NT is that the club hand is dummy when you know its strength and hidden when you don't. In other words:

1N - 2S; 3C (superaccept) - Pass
We know responder is weak, but the hand is dummy.

1N - 2S; 2NT (no superaccept) - 3C
Responder's hand is either weak or invitational and is hidden.

Contrast this to using 2NT as the superaccept.

[rhm]

hrothgar, on 2016-April-28, 06:24, said:

Torn between 2♠ and an immediate 3N

Winstonm, on 2016-May-14, 18:02, said:

Me, too, and as I cannot see why I should assume my Qx, and K in the majors are a problem, and if they are my hand is worth even less, so I am just bidding 3NT.

The question is of course when do alternative contracts to 3NT get attractive enough to explore.

I simulated this (1000 deals) opposite a 15-17 notrump hand (4333, 4432, 5332)
It turns out

3NT makes on 86.6% of all deals double dummy
6NT makes on 37.3% of all deals double dummy

Average number of tricks 10.8
This suggests 3NT is safe enough. Opponents will hardly be able to beat it whatever they do and whatever you will reveal in the bidding.

6♣ makes on 51.4% of the deals
5♣ makes on 90.2% of the deals

Average number of tricks 11.5

Diamonds is rarely a better option.
Given that most will have difficulty showing a primary club suit and only a secondary diamond suit it might be best to ignore the diamond option all together in most cases unless opener suggests diamonds uninvited.


My conclusion from this is:

Chances for slam in clubs are too good to ignore, certainly at IMPs.
At matchpoints it is as expected closer but making at least a suggestion to a club slam seems appropriate even at matchpoints. If notrump opener accepts you are unlikely to get dissappointed.
I play a new suit after minor suit transfer as shortage and consider this mainstream. Not ideal with a singleton king and would probably simply bid 3NT after transfer to clubs.
At matchpoints this is enough, at IMPs this could be wrong if partner superaccepts.

Rainer Herrmann

[Zelandakh]

rhm, on 2016-May-18, 04:01, said:

I simulated this (1000 deals) opposite a 15-17 notrump hand (4333, 4432, 5332)

Your sim results match up with what I would intuitively expect. I was a little worried when some of the better players were choosing to go directly to 3NT given my comment about LOLs starting with 3♣ but will take your results as backing up that line of thought in keeping with the BBF tradition of cherry-picking data.