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a matchpoint decision how far do you advance over opps nt opening?

#1 User is offline   luckyloser 

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Posted 2016-May-11, 03:22

AQ65
J4
98753
94

Matchpoints, both vulnerable

RHO opens 1NT (15-17), LHO passes and P balances with 2(majors, at least 5-4, HCP more or less unknown).
RHO now bids 3.

Is your hand worth 3 or not?
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#2 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2016-May-11, 04:56

Game All is the worst time to stretch to compete. If the opps are any good they will MP-double freely so the KoD is very much on the cards.
(-: Zel :-)
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#3 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2016-May-11, 05:02

I tried to simulate this and made the following assumptions:

RHO 6322 with 14-16 HCP
LHO no 5 card major, 0-8 HCP
Partner 5-4 or better in the majors.

1000 random deals.
3 and 3 made on exactly 671 deals each.

Average number of tricks in spades was 9.05 and in clubs 8.92

It looks like you should bid 3. If you are unlucky it will drive them into a making 3NT.
I know those who vote for pass will question my assumptions.

Rainer Herrmann
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#4 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2016-May-11, 06:06

Depends on style I guess. I mean, KJxx AKxxx xx xx is pretty odds-on for 3S and about what I'd expect for a vulnerable 2C under the strong NT. Plus, partner could be 5-4 rather than 4-5, or have 3 clubs, etc. Trumps rate to break 3-2 - the 1NT opener can't have a singleton and is very unlikely to be 45.

But if partner has a tendency to balance quite weak with both majors, even vul, then it would be wiser to pass.

I can believe Rainer's stats (though why simulate with 14-16 rather than 15-17 or indeed 16-17 given opener is bidding by himself?) and if partner has his bid I think it'll be hard for opps to come up with a penalty X here. So I'd bid 3S.

ahydra
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#5 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2016-May-11, 06:19

View Postahydra, on 2016-May-11, 06:06, said:

I can believe Rainer's stats (though why simulate with 14-16 rather than 15-17 or indeed 16-17 given opener is bidding by himself?) and if partner has his bid I think it'll be hard for opps to come up with a penalty X here. So I'd bid 3S.

ahydra

A matter of hand evaluation.
Playing 15-17 NT would you open 1NT with 17 HCP holding a reasonable 6 card minor?
I would likely upgrade.
And holding 14 HCP and a 6 card minor I htink I am good enough for 15-17 notrumps.
I certainly prefer that to 15 HCP holding 4333 or 4432 unless I have a fit in major.

Rainer Herrmann
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#6 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2016-May-11, 13:27

I really don't think it matters if the hand is worth it or not - I am pretty sure they can make 3 clubs and I am just as sure they will take a push to 4C so I bid 3S.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
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#7 User is offline   mcphee 

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Posted 2016-May-12, 08:22

You bet it's worth bidding. Would you not raise. Partner if they had bid S?
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#8 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2016-May-12, 08:28

All hour points are in the majors. A raise is obvious.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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#9 User is offline   miamijd 

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Posted 2016-May-12, 22:58

It looks like the high-card strength is roughly equal (you have 7; partner likely has at least 10 for his balance -- any less and LHO might have bid originally).

Given that, you should bid 3 over 3 in MPs if the trump count is 17 or more, since with 17 total trump, one contract is likely to make, while the other is likely off one. -100 beats -110, and +140 beats +100.

Here, it's likely the trump count is at least 17, if not 18. You have 4 spades; partner has at least 4 and quite possibly 5. You have 2 clubs; partner has a maximum of 4 minor suit cards, so there's a good chance he has 2 or fewer clubs.

So you may well have a 9-fit, and the opponents likely do have a 9-fit. Sure, it's possible that the trump count is 16, but the odds favor 17+.

So bid 3S.
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#10 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2016-May-13, 04:11

Given our relatively modest power, and also because we are red, we can rely on partner to have some values. So balance of strength is close to 20-20 (with opps likely to be a bit ahead of us).
For all the reasons stated above, total tricks are unlikely to be 16.
I have S honors so the chances of an X by opponents who aim for the magic 200 are reduced. Responder might even be tempted to venture to the 4 level if he has a fit with some C honors as well that could be worthless on defence.
And I love my J💜.
So count me in for the bidders.
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#11 User is offline   maartenxq 

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Posted 2016-May-14, 08:25

View Postluckyloser, on 2016-May-11, 03:22, said:

AQ65
J4
98753
94

Matchpoints, both vulnerable

RHO opens 1NT (15-17), LHO passes and P balances with 2(majors, at least 5-4, HCP more or less unknown).
RHO now bids 3.

Is your hand worth 3 or not?
3 S it is. Partner must have seen vulnerability too and if not this is a good way to teach him to do so in future. tx for simulation btw.
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