[Fluffy]

---

LHO leads ♥2 (new partnership, they have just agreed on 3/5 on a partner's suit on the previous board)

RHO wins the ace and returs the jack

[cherdano]

Sure, restricted choice applies, but of course there are many other factors.

• In practice, most players would play A-J from AKJ here, not KJ, as they are trying to be "tricky".
  
• Would RHO overcall with ♥AJ9xx, ♣Q and nothing else? (By ducking we are of course playing for RHO not to have ♣A.)
  
• Would LHO lead high from xxx since he has raised the suit?

On balance, I would play the queen I think.

[bluecalm]

Restricted choice always applies. It just means that combinations which had other plays available are now less likely. In this hand in particular AKJ is twice less likely that it was a priori.
I don't think W would bid 2H with xxx of hearts and withotu Ac (at least not too often while if E has AJxxx the location of Ac is imo more or less a flip (with W slightly more likely to have the card still).
Anyway, a priori there are 10 ways to deal Kxx-AJxxx and 10 ways to deal xxx-AKJxx of which only 5 survived to the moment of our decision.
It's 10-5 for Kxx now but out of those 10 cases you lose some when Ac is with E. I estimated it as less than 50% above so I am playing low expecting to make 3NT about 55-60% of the time :-)

[dake50]

Would LHO lead high from xxx since he has raised the suit?

*** I still keep my count lead, so never!

On balance, I would play the queen I think. -- cherdano

*** Didn't we already decide that by bidding 3NT instead of suggesting penalties?
I will make 3NT and not accept 2H-X-2.

[gnasher]

cherdano, on 2014-February-16, 03:06, said:

• Would RHO overcall with ♥AJ9xx, ♣Q and nothing else? (By ducking we are of course playing for RHO not to have ♣A.)

Would he play the ace at trick one from that?

[JLOGIC]

The most interesting part of this type of spot to me is always the decision to play back the jack. In a vacuum with AJ9xx you would like to lead back low since they will almost always play you for AKxxx (since AJ9xx will often play the jack back, but AKxxx has no choice but to win and lead a low one back, ofc K9x with LHO is a possibility but less likely). However, if you do that it means that your jack back is always AKJ.

Anyways in this case without the ace of clubs playing the queen seems pretty straight forward.

[JLOGIC]

gnasher, on 2014-February-16, 13:49, said:

Would he play the ace at trick one from that?

I would guess he would, the most straight forward way to beat it is a heart misguess and you will often have 9 if you get to win the first trick (might depend on how many spades he has). Of course he has a real problem though since you might have xxx Kxx AKx K9xx or something, but having 4 spades 4 diamonds and a heart is pretty likely, or the club ace and one less pointed suit trick,or if partner has a diamond honor then you have AK of clubs and the hook is on... and I think if you have Qxx of hearts it is just normal to go down especially after such a light overcall.

This is some evidence that AKJ of hearts should win the king at trick one, on the other hand I am never playing a guy to have overcalled a 6 count so the ace was probably right anyways.

[bluecalm]

JLOGIC, on 2014-February-16, 14:02, said:

I would guess he would, the most straight forward way to beat it is a heart misguess and you will often have 9 if you get to win the first trick (might depend on how many spades he has). Of course he has a real problem though since you might have xxx Kxx AKx K9xx or something, but having 4 spades 4 diamonds and a heart is pretty likely, or the club ace and one less pointed suit trick,or if partner has a diamond honor then you have AK of clubs and the hook is on... and I think if you have Qxx of hearts it is just normal to go down especially after such a light overcall.

This is some evidence that AKJ of hearts should win the king at trick one, on the other hand I am never playing a guy to have overcalled a 6 count so the ace was probably right anyways.

So do I get it right that you play a Q because overcaller rarely has only AJxxx/Q for his overcall and it's more likely that it's his partner who raised on xxx + Q ?
I find this hand interesting because to me it's straightforward analysis to play low but somehow everybody finds playing a Q correct.

[gszes]

bluecalm, on 2014-February-16, 14:26, said:

So do I get it right that you play a Q because overcaller rarely has only AJxxx/Q for his overcall and it's more likely that it's his partner who raised on xxx + Q ?
I find this hand interesting because to me it's straightforward analysis to play low but somehow everybody finds playing a Q correct.

Even if you are right by playing low in the heart suit and lho has to win the K on round 3--
you will be wrong any time rho started with the club A---That is why most will just go up with
the Q since they feel the overcaller is way more likely to have the club A if they did not
start with the heart AK:)

[JLOGIC]

bluecalm, on 2014-February-16, 14:26, said:

So do I get it right that you play a Q because overcaller rarely has only AJxxx/Q for his overcall and it's more likely that it's his partner who raised on xxx + Q ?
I find this hand interesting because to me it's straightforward analysis to play low but somehow everybody finds playing a Q correct.

His partner might have raised on xxx + A or xxx + AQ and the queen would be the winning play, it's not just xxx + Q

[JLOGIC]

bluecalm, if they had won the ace and played low would you play the queen or low? If the queen that suggests that either you are erring by playing low on the jack or they are erring by playing the jack. Of course it depends on the opponents level.

Gnasher's point is also good that they have a legit problem at trick one to play the ace or not with AJ9xx, at the table if they thought for an extra long time or played extra fast that could be a big clue.

If I am understanding correctly your main point is that you don't think they'd raise with just the ace of clubs? I think more people raise with an ace and 3 trumps NV than overcall AJ9xx and a Q but I could be wrong.

[bluecalm]

Quote

Even if you are right by playing low in the heart suit and lho has to win the K on round 3--
you will be wrong any time rho started with the club A---That is why most will just go up with
the Q since they feel the overcaller is way more likely to have the club A if they did not
start with the heart AK:)

Well, I don't agree with "way more" and even more. The raiser has Kxx, the overcaller AJxxx... it's imo a pure flipwho has Ac here based on points. I don't see 2H on K + Q as less aggressive bid than 1H on AJxxx + Q... I might well be wrong about this assumption and then yeah, playing the Q would be correct.

Quote

His partner might have raised on xxx + A or xxx + AQ and the queen would be the winning play, it's not just xxx + Q

Right. I got carried away a bit.
I didn't play much bridge in my life comapring to you guys.. but I find it very suspicious that raise on xxx + A is somewhat standard and overcall on AJxxx Q isn't.

Quote

bluecalm, if they had won the ace and played low would you play the queen or low? If the queen that suggests that either you are erring by playing low on the jack or they are erring by playing the jack. Of course it depends on the opponents level.

I wouldn't play the Q. I would stick to AJxxx being more likely and just play low

Quote

If I am understanding correctly your main point is that you don't think they'd raise with just the ace of clubs? I think more people raise with an ace and 3 trumps NV than overcall AJ9xx and a Q but I could be wrong.

Yes, this is my main point. I feel people are more likely to overcall with junk than to raise with junk. It might be very region specific and it might be very wrong even for my region. I feel somewhat strongly about it but on the other hand I didn't play much bridge in my life and almost none last two years so that might be totally off.

[Jinksy]

LHO seems to have led dummy's card. How much that restricts your choice probably depends on the bridge laws in your country.

[Fluffy]

Good point Jinksy.

The way I see it there are actually double restricted choice (or perhaps better wording, no real restricted choice) because RHO could win either Ace or King with AKJ, but also he could play the 9 with AJ9 if he doesn't have an entry.

I was RHO on this one, and I actually though I would put this one down looking at a dummy with no source of tricks and a declarer that denied one as well with ♦AK and ♣AK missing. I didn't expect the 5th diamond nor the ♠J but they were there. I think I would had ducked trick one if I had ♥AJ9xx. After all it looks like declarer will have ♥K rather than ♥Q most of the time.