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Tollywobbles 1 Your Lead

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2014-February-10, 07:22


NS vul, dealer North.

2H was Acol-style, not FG. Your side is playing intermediate jump overcalls and a multi. Your lead. First board of a 98-board team event. The opponents play a simple style, which has been good enough to win a national team title back-to-back, so should not be decried!
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#2 User is offline   ewj 

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Posted 2014-February-10, 09:50

Think I would probably lead a low diamond...looks like a bit of a guess
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#3 User is offline   ewj 

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Posted 2014-February-10, 09:56

Think I would probably lead a low diamond...looks like a bit of a guess. Not going to lead a trump for sure. Looks like we might have to establish a trick but then when are we getting in again. Dummy could have something strange, club ruff though? Possible I guess. Not convinced a spade lead would work. Wtf was this 3D bid before 6H.
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#4 User is offline   kuhchung 

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Posted 2014-February-10, 12:56

Tollywobbles sounds so cute!
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#5 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2014-February-10, 13:14

If I wanted to be cute, I would lead a low spade, hoping that declarer would reject the finesse out of fear of a ruff at trick 2, but I'd want some surprise lurking elsewhere...say Jxxx in hearts. If he has an inescapable loser elsewhere, he'll take the finesse anyway, while if he doesn't then we're not likely to beat him.

Meanwhile, I suspect that partner has 7+ clubs and a bad hand. Can he ruff the diamond and, if so, can that be the setting trick? My concern is that even if he rises with a high diamond in dummy, and partner ruffs, I may be squeezed in the pointeds. However, there isn't a lot else I can think of, so I also lead my lowest diamond.

I don't see the other alternative, of a heart, as having much chance, due to my holdings under dummy
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#6 User is offline   mfa1010 

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Posted 2014-February-10, 13:26

Would try a diamond. Friday night ♠J.
Michael Askgaard
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#7 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2014-February-10, 17:54

Would try a diamond. Friday night SJ. -- mfa1010
SJ just might mess up entries for a S-D squeeze.
Hope partner has some trick.
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#8 User is offline   jallerton 

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Posted 2014-February-10, 17:57

In principle, dummy has show spades, diamonds and heart support. However, as he jumped to 6♥ without involving partner all bets are off. If he does hold a club void, or even a singleton, why did he jump to slam when his partner made what would be the most discouraging call possible? With a 54(31) shape he would probably just start with a splinter and/or RKCB. If they don't play any special methods here, I reckon dummy has a very good 5422 or 6322 hand.

If partner had a diamond void, he would probably have doubled 6♥ (and that still needs us to find a 2nd trick from somewhere). I lead a club, needing partner to hold the ace of clubs or the ace of hearts and dummy not being able to over-ruff.
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#9 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2014-February-11, 04:27

I would lead a club. Partner rates to have an ace. My main concern is that he has the spade ace and a spade loser is about to go away. Declarer is bound to have a doubleton or singleton spade on this auction. If rho is 2515 a diamond lead might just be letting rho get away with it.

I also think a trump could be right. With spades and diamonds locked up, where are they going to find twelve tricks without ruffs?

I think I have almost talked myself into a trump lead, despite the obvious risks. Yes, I think I would lead a trump now, hope that when partner gets in he can lead a second trump and they just wont have enough tricks.
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#10 User is offline   ewj 

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Posted 2014-February-11, 11:23

I wouldn't say that you had ♠ "locked" up with Kjx under the 1S bidder...Can't lead a trump - that is the worst of all four in my book.
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#11 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2014-February-11, 12:04

View Postjallerton, on 2014-February-10, 17:57, said:

In principle, dummy has show spades, diamonds and heart support. However, as he jumped to 6♥ without involving partner all bets are off. If he does hold a club void, or even a singleton, why did he jump to slam when his partner made what would be the most discouraging call possible? With a 54(31) shape he would probably just start with a splinter and/or RKCB. If they don't play any special methods here, I reckon dummy has a very good 5422 or 6322 hand.

If partner had a diamond void, he would probably have doubled 6♥ (and that still needs us to find a 2nd trick from somewhere). I lead a club, needing partner to hold the ace of clubs or the ace of hearts and dummy not being able to over-ruff.

This seems to me the best analysis by far. Dummy had AQT98xx AKx A xx opposite xx QJxxx K9x Kxx and a club lead beats it immediately. On a diamond lead, declarer will probably make, taking a spade finesse before drawing two rounds of trumps and establishing the spades. A club may win when partner has as little as Kx in trumps as well, with your third heart coming into play. My partner led a deceptive jack of spades and declarer played a despondent queen of spades followed shortly by a delighted claim.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#12 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2014-February-16, 14:24

I've come slightly late to this party (playing too much other bridge) but I looked at my hand and I had a singleton so I was planning to lead it.
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#13 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2014-February-23, 16:09

I'm leading a club. If partner has either rounded ace or maybe even K♥ we are in good shape. Then again, I find it highly unlikely he can have either.

The hand is probably going to come down to a lot of smart discarding by me. I would not be surprised if all the finesses work or if I get squeezed on the run of the trumps plus club ruffs in dummy.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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