[Cyberyeti]

Scoring: IMP

RHO passes
You pass
LHO opens 3♣passed round to you

---

Do you pass or double for takeout. I think this is very close, partner figures to have 12-13 count at least with 3 clubs most of the time, and he knows you're a passed hand that would have opened almost every rule of 19 hand.

[Codo]

It is close but I would double. We won't pay -800.

[gwnn]

I don't think I double, too little defence.

[mcphee]

I see no reason to pass. A third hand pre-empt can be rather frisky at these colors and we may be able to make 4 of a major or perhaps partner will pass the dble. To say partner could have 12 or so HCP is true, but they may also have 15 -16 and a hand unsuitable to dble for t/o. If we do not balance here I think we are being a whimp.

[Fluffy]

obvious double IMO.

[pooltuna]

Cyberyeti, on Sep 9 2009, 06:12 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

RHO passes
You pass
LHO opens 3♣passed round to you

---

Do you pass or double for takeout. I think this is very close, partner figures to have 12-13 count at least with 3 clubs most of the time, and he knows you're a passed hand that would have opened almost every rule of 19 hand.

You think this is close?

This is a WTP Pass

[nick_s]

This is 3rd hand pre-empt at adverse vul. It can even be a hand worth an opening bid that wants to shut out one or both majors. I have very little defense if pard wants to convert the double. I don't think the risk is worth the possible reward.

Clear pass IMO.

[dake50]

How much does partner pass on? The 15 needed to score game? NEVER!
They took a preempt risk verses our partial at best. Bid to fool them into we have game going values???
Their preempt won a partial -- let it go.

[655321]

Double, I don't think this is particularly close.

[Cyberyeti]

I'm glad this has provoked "obvious pass", "obvious double" and "close decision".

At the table I doubled, but everybody I've polled IRL on this has passed.

Will reveal what happened after some more replies.

[neilkaz]

I basically have junk. I've been robbed before when I have junk and will risk that here by passing.

I think we are clear underdogs to make game here as PD couldn't act over 3♣ and I also don't expect to be able to hurt 3♣ often enough to just the risk of defending it doubled.

PASS

[nigel_k]

Pass. Your values are too soft. I'm not so worried about partner passing, but probably he'll bid game and go down with anything good enough to make a three level contract. While LHO can be weak, he can also be stronger than usual so I don't think you can reason that partner must have quite a lot.

[Jlall]

obv X

[benlessard]

Close I pass. In my book a red vs W preempts show real goodies.

[the hog]

Obvious pass. Where are your sharp cards? This is not even close.

[effervesce]

Pass. I'd be extremely worried if partner chose to convert, and I'd be worried that what he bids will be doubled off lots.

[Jlall]

effervesce, on Sep 9 2009, 08:28 PM, said:

Pass. I'd be extremely worried if partner chose to convert, and I'd be worried that what he bids will be doubled off lots.

huh? Who's gonna double you off "lots" the passed hand who heard his partner preempt, or the preemptor? Two of the biggest reasons to bid are that you will never get doubled, and partner will not start overbidding (given that RHO and you are passed hands).

Like if you weren't a passed hand obv you would pass since if you can make 3x partner will bid 4. That isn't the case here. Or if RHO was not a passed hand he could have a strong hand with short clubs and you could get doubled. That isn't the case here.

Also why on earth would you be extremely worried if partner chose to convert? That is the biggest upside in doubling, you might get a nice number if partner passes. You have 2 trumps which is huge. Partner is not expecting MORE defense than this, surely everyone would double with Txxx KQJx QJxx x. That is obviously a worse defensive hand. Again given your passed hand status partner is not playing you for the world and if he converts you are going to kill this.

The big downside of doubling is if you were going plus against 3C and now go minus in 3x. Boo hoo, I think the times when you go plus in 3x vs minus in 3C balance that out, not to mention the times partner passes and you get a number.

[peachy]

As passed hand, I dbl. If I weren't a passed hand, Dbl would be not good.

[effervesce]

Jlall, on Sep 9 2009, 08:44 PM, said:

effervesce, on Sep 9 2009, 08:28 PM, said:

Pass. I'd be extremely worried if partner chose to convert, and I'd be worried that what he bids will be doubled off lots.

huh? Who's gonna double you off "lots" the passed hand who heard his partner preempt, or the preemptor? Two of the biggest reasons to bid are that you will never get doubled, and partner will not start overbidding (given that RHO and you are passed hands).

Like if you weren't a passed hand obv you would pass since if you can make 3x partner will bid 4. That isn't the case here. Or if RHO was not a passed hand he could have a strong hand with short clubs and you could get doubled. That isn't the case here.

Also why on earth would you be extremely worried if partner chose to convert? That is the biggest upside in doubling, you might get a nice number if partner passes. You have 2 trumps which is huge. Partner is not expecting MORE defense than this, surely everyone would double with Txxx KQJx QJxx x. That is obviously a worse defensive hand. Again given your passed hand status partner is not playing you for the world and if he converts you are going to kill this.

The big downside of doubling is if you were going plus against 3C and now go minus in 3x. Boo hoo, I think the times when you go plus in 3x vs minus in 3C balance that out, not to mention the times partner passes and you get a number.

You raise good points, but assuming the opps are rational when vul vs not, partner is less likely to be able to convert (they should have a decent suit+hand vul vs not). Wouldn't be surprised at all if the preemptor had an intermediate, opening strength hand with the nuts. As for having two trumps, it makes it less likely partner has a penalty pass. If you had a singleton club, as in your example, it'd be more likely that partner has a penalty pass, and I'd be happy to X with that. But here, the two small clubs sets off warning signs for me to not double. Agree that X can win lots since they're vul, but it can lose lots too. Another factor is the extremely soft values your hand holds. If you held an A and two K's I'd be happier doubling as the upside of conversion is much bigger.

[Jlall]

effervesce, on Sep 10 2009, 03:11 AM, said:

If you had a singleton club, as in your example, it'd be more likely that partner has a penalty pass, and I'd be happy to X with that.

I agree, but remember I was replying to this statement that you made:

Quote

Pass. I'd be extremely worried if partner chose to convert

Surely if partner converts you are happier to have 2 trumps than 1 trump. Surely you rate to get a bigger number. It is not relevant that partner is passing LESS often because your quoted statement was that WHEN partner passes you would be extremely worried. It doesn't make sense that you would not be worried when partner passes if you have a stiff club, but extremely worried if partner passes and you have a doubleton club.

As far as lefty likely having a very good hand/the nuts for a r/w 3C bid, again that makes it BETTER for us to double, not worse. Remember the biggest downside of doubling is if they were going down and we go down. If LHO is always going to have, say, 7 very good clubs and something else then they are very likely to make! And we are much more likely to have a 9 card fit in that case as well, and we are much less likely to have club wastage, etc.

If I knew LHO to be very sound and always have a good 7 bagger plus something else I would be happier to double, expecting a double partscore swing quite often, and expecting to turn a plus on defense into a minus quite rarely.

It is the times when LHO has SIX clubs AND partner cannot pass our double that I become worried. Now it's more likely both partials go down. But I am ok with that because now there is more chance partner can pass and we get a number (our big upside).