[msheald]

Just curious. In this pre-dealt, pre-bid robot hand in yesterday's free game that came to a final contract in 6 clubs, how would folks make 7?

I made 6 clubs and got 40%. The only way for folks to receive a higher score is to make 7 since it is pre-bid. The only way I see to make 7 in this distribution is to presume east has the queen and finesse with south's Kx. I'm not sure if this is an unusual play or not; however, when 60% of folks play it this way, it suggests that folks presume that it is the correct finesse even when there is no data as to where the queen might be.

Is there any other way to play this? Or do folks who play a lot of robot hands presume to play such finesses this way? Best regards.

Mike


https://tinyurl.com/29t6qxv3

[smerriman]

You're misunderstanding the scores. A score of 40% does not mean 60% of players made 7 - after all, if you had scored 50%, that would mean nobody made grand. In fact, only about 16% of players made 7.

Now, it's certainly possible that if you cross to dummy and lead the J, East may cover, eliminating any guess, which is a risk free option that is likely better than just laying down the king. (Of course, it would be an extremely bad play by the robots, but it's not like they're not known for that.)

However, more likely is the fact lots of people who play daylongs are not aiming to just average well, they are trying to get top scores. Playing antifield gives you a chance of a very good score, and just as likely a chance of a very bad score. If you can fluke 8 good scores, you have a chance of coming top in a tournament. If you just play good bridge, you don't, due to the fact people play different hands.

[msheald]

Thanks! But I am still confused. How did 60% of the folks get a score better than 6 clubs making 6? I understand about playing anti-field for the entire game, however, this is a single board, so I am confused. Best regards.

Mike

[smerriman]

They didn't. 93 tables made 12 tricks like you, and just 18 tables made 13 tricks. You score half a match point for each table you tied with, and 0 for the ones you lost to, which is 92*0.5 out of a maximum 110 = 41.8%.

Those 18 tables scored 17*0.5 + 93*1 out of 110 = 92.3%.

If the finesse had been the other way, you would have instead scored 58.2% and the others 7.7% - and it would have been impossible for you to score higher than 58.2%.

If someone had Qxxx, both lines get 12 tricks, and you and everyone else get 50% - even though nobody beat you.

Cashing the king first is clearly the better bridge play - since you pick up a singleton queen offside - but if your goal is to get 80+% scores on all boards, you have to do something weird and hope it comes off repeatedly.

[johnu]

smerriman, on 2024-April-20, 12:51, said:

If someone had Qxxx, both lines get 12 tricks, and you and everyone else get 50% - even though nobody beat you.

Cashing the king first is clearly the better bridge play - since you pick up a singleton queen offside

There's also hope for a trump coup if West had ♣Qxxx by ruffing twice in North which makes cashing the king even better.

[msheald]

Thanks! I misunderstood the percentile rank. I appreciate the clarification. Best regards.

Mike