[eagles123]

AKQ832
T743
A3
2

opposite

J4
KQ95
Q
AK9753

North opens 1S and East weak jumps 3D ... a simple question: Which contract would you like to be in? At imps, and mp, is it different? Does strength of field matter?

Thanks,

eagles

[LBengtsson]

eagles123, on 2022-August-06, 15:36, said:

Which contract would you like to be in?

Good hand to post. Two other questions: how to bid and play "what contract"?

There is 20-25% chance that West has ♥AJ(x)(x)(x) and you could make the wrong play with the West holding doubleton ♥AJ, so just on odds alone I would like to be in 6♥ as a contract at both MPs and IMPs. However...

...that 3♦ pre-empt say to me that breaks will be more chance to be bad, so 6♠ looks a better contract and safer to play.

The chance of East having a stiff ♥ (not including the ♥A) and getting a ruff is just over 11%. The chances of the 6♠ contract succeeding are similar to being in 6♥ contract: the ♥ suit still needs to come in with the loss of one trick only.

I do not think it is easy to bid slam here***: aggressive bidders will be in it, and lesser players (thinking of 'the field') will probably not. My honest opinion: if slam is there to bid and made, and we can get there, at any score, you should be there, so if we are in 6♥ or 6♠ and it goes down then we are unlucky.

***seeing both hands makes it easier to bid: bidding slam without seeing partner's hand is guess imo. You either chicken in 5♥/♠ after RKCB or bid one more and hope for the best.

[AL78]

I think I would like to be in 4♠. The pre-empt has made 4-1 breaks more likely and with that, the chance that East can engineer a ruff in the major we don't play in. If I play in spades, I expect a heart lead to the ace, heart ruff. If I play in hearts, I expect a spade lead, West gets in with the heart ace followed by a spade ruff. 4♠ looks more robust against 4-1 or 5-0 trump breaks than 4♥. I would say this at MPs or IMPs.

[Douglas43]

I'd probably be in 4♥. 1♠ -(3♦)-Double-(pass)-3♥-pass 4♥

[dsLawsd]

It depends on the state of our game. Also the opponent. Generally I like 4♠ at matchpoints. I would guess we would end at 5♥ at Imps unless we were behind. That elusive heart J isn't it?

[johnrmoore]

6Spades My only awareness of IMPs is stretch for game. Not a problem here. I have entries and clubs could be 3-3 with a fortced heart entry. no field difference. go for slam.

[johnrmoore]

6Spades My only awareness of IMPs is stretch for game. Not a problem here. I have entries and clubs could be 3-3 with a fortced heart entry. no field difference. go for slam.

[smerriman]

I'm with AL78. If the diamonds are 3-7, the chance of picking up the heart suit for 3 tricks is a tick under 50%, and that's not considering ruffs. Maybe clubs 3-3 gives us a tiny extra chance, but looking at the two hands, I'm happy with 4♠.

Though of course, that's only looking at the two hands. Actually bidding it out without knowing each other's hand could easily go either way.

[Cyberyeti]

smerriman, on 2022-August-08, 18:56, said:

I'm with AL78. If the diamonds are 3-7, the chance of picking up the heart suit for 3 tricks is a tick under 50%, and that's not considering ruffs. Maybe clubs 3-3 gives us a tiny extra chance, but looking at the two hands, I'm happy with 4♠.

Though of course, that's only looking at the two hands. Actually bidding it out without knowing each other's hand could easily go either way.

Before I decide how the diamonds break, I want to know how many the partner of the preemptor does or doesn't bid, they could easily be 6-4 or 8-2

[P_Marlowe]

Hi

I saw the auction on BridgeWinners.

You have a 4-4 fit in hearts, and a 6-2 fit in spades.
The spade fit is better / more robust due to the fact, that South has Jx in Spades.
As far as North knows, his partner may have a Spade Single.
For that matter North never showed a solid 6 card spade suit, why should South ever
believe, Spades to be the better trump suit.

Settling for the heart fit is normal.

The question is, should you end up in 6H.
A side question to answer: Was the neg. X already Game Forcing? Some play it that way,
which gives you more room. But sometimes you will end up to high.

In the end both players stretched to find their bids, the game bid, the Key Card Ask.
An alternative to the Key Card Ask is a Quantitative Slam Invite via 5H, if you have this
av., some play this in the given Seq. as an Control Ask for Diamonds, I find the quantitative
invite more useful.
North will decline the invite.

With kind regards
Marlowe