[rvm1]

Why do suit breaks, trump splits and the like not come anywhere near the
percentages you see in real life? I charted 80 hands in which there were
finesses (no adverse bidding; and yes, I know exactly how the odds change from
the bidding and the progress of the play) and 72.4% didn't work, while a 3-2
trump break only happened 52.1% of the time, not closer to 68%.

[smerriman]

This has been tested to death; all suit breaks and splits follow completely normal percentages in every test that I've run so far over thousands of hands.

Even if you haven't made a mistake in your calculations, 80 is a tiny sample statistically (and your actual sample will be even smaller by the time you've ruled out hands which don't qualify).

I'm not even sure how you're defining finesses though, as a finesse that works for one side fails for the other, so balances out to 50% even if there's guaranteed bias (which there isn't).

See, for example, this one, which used 2000 hands to demonstrate completely normal 3-2 breaks, and complete normal distributions of the Q when KJ was found in the North / South hand.

[johnu]

You have to join BBO's premium, Super Platinum VIP Club to get normal suit distributions. If you want your finesses to work successfully you need to add the Finesse Package which is an added option. Distributions and finesses have to even out, so ordinary BBO players get the bad splits and the finesses that don't work.

[gszes]

johnu, on 2020-December-18, 14:46, said:

You have to join BBO's premium, Super Platinum VIP Club to get normal suit distributions. If you want your finesses to work successfully you need to add the Finesse Package which is an added option. Distributions and finesses have to even out, so ordinary BBO players get the bad splits and the finesses that don't work.

come on surely the SUPER platinum VIP membership grants me at least some edge over merely normal sheeshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh:))))))))

[LBengtsson]

Eureka! Now that you have found that the probability of bridge is different than you thought you have advantage. Think finesses and breaks DO NOT work. you will be a winner with your new knowledge. lol