[manudude03]

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Interesting hand from a cup match tonight. Had an emphatic win, got somewhat lucky on this board- think I misplayed it. ♠K lead. Plan the play.

If you duck the spade:

Spoiler

they will play a second spade.

If you decide to test diamonds:

Spoiler

They break 5-0 !, 5 with south

[Cyberyeti]

Are they playing an old style precision 2♦ so we can rule out 4405 ?

[manudude03]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-July-24, 23:53, said:

Are they playing an old style precision 2♦ so we can rule out 4405 ?

You can't rule out 4405, but would they bid 3♣ with that?

[Cyberyeti]

manudude03, on 2019-July-25, 01:29, said:

You can't rule out 4405, but would they bid 3♣ with that?

Didn't even see that, that makes it a little more awkward, it looks like I either nee S to hold ♥98 or an honour or 3 small, and I need to decide whether he holds an honour doubleton or trebleton.


On balance (what card does S play on the first spade and what does it mean ?), I'll play N for 7 clubs and 3 or 4 spades depending on what S plays if it's a count signal, then if I think S has 2 hearts, I'll lead a small one off the deck (and hope to guess well on the second round if S plays 9 or 8), if I think he has 3, I'll lead the J and hope to guess correctly on the second round if N covers.


Did they have a natural 4♣ available ? as they may have done that with 8 which would also be possible.

[manudude03]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-July-25, 02:52, said:

Didn't even see that, that makes it a little more awkward, it looks like I either nee S to hold ♥98 or an honour or 3 small, and I need to decide whether he holds an honour doubleton or trebleton.


On balance (what card does S play on the first spade and what does it mean ?), I'll play N for 7 clubs and 3 or 4 spades depending on what S plays if it's a count signal, then if I think S has 2 hearts, I'll lead a small one off the deck (and hope to guess well on the second round if S plays 9 or 8), if I think he has 3, I'll lead the J and hope to guess correctly on the second round if N covers.


Did they have a natural 4♣ available ? as they may have done that with 8 which would also be possible.

4♣ would be pre-emptive, south plays the 3 on the first spade (standard count).

[helene_t]

North would probably have bid 2♠ if he had four of them so he is either 3406 or 3307. Assuming he also has ♠Q (was the spade continuation the queen?), I just need a heart trick. if hearts are 3-2 there is no problem so assume 4-1.

I play a small heart from the table. South has:
- King or Queen. I am home.
- 8 or 9. ♥7 will be my 9th trick.
- ♥5. Bad luck.

[Cyberyeti]

helene_t, on 2019-July-25, 16:10, said:

North would probably have bid 2♠ if he had four of them so he is either 3406 or 3307. Assuming he also has ♠Q (was the spade continuation the queen?), I just need a heart trick. if hearts are 3-2 there is no problem so assume 4-1.

I play a small heart from the table. South has:
- King or Queen. I am home.
- 8 or 9. ♥7 will be my 9th trick.
- ♥5. Bad luck.

The count signal strongly suggests 4207 (4306 would prob have bid 2♠), you have to avoid a second heart loser, and small to the J is not the way to do it.

[nige1]

manudude03 'Interesting hand from a cup match tonight. Had an emphatic win, got somewhat lucky on this board- think I misplayed it. ♠K lead. Plan the play.
+++++++++++++++++++++


Duck the ♠K lead. Win the ♠ continuation. Cash ♦Q to discover the bad news. Exit with ♥2. Win the ♠ continuation. Lead ♣J. Cash ♥A. Cash ♦K. Lead ♣Q ...
-- If North wins and cashes a ♠.then you can squeeze South in the red suits.
-- If North ducks, or fails to cash the ♠, then play ♥T.
This line seems to work if North is 4207 (or 4306 without both ♥ honours)

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[gszes]

trick 1 duck I have been fooled before by some ingenious lho leading a presumably dead Kx and finding p with just the right holding. I also prefer the OPPS lead another spade (to get me 2 spade tricks if available) since I am very short of entries.
trick 2 spade J and assuming that holds
trick 3 dia Q and you optimists were worried about a 4/1 split hehe
trick 4 spade ace going to try and set up a successful endplay sequence
trick 5 club J and what happens next will depend on the defense

if lho wins the club J
trick 6 they cash spade and we pitch dia from dummy and heart from hand
lho cannot play another club or we will score 3c 3d 2s 1h and if lho leads a heart they will guarantee us 2h 2c 2s 3d (we still have the dia K as an entry to cash a club trick)

if lho ducks the club trick
trick 6 dia to K
trick 7 heart J and DUCK if covered or run it (this still leaves us with a chance for 2s 3h 3d 1c)
trick 8 lho cashes spade and we pitch dia from dummy and heart from hand (we need to keep a dia for late entry to dummy)
trick 9 lho can cash the club A (pitch another dia from dummy) but then they have to play a heart and solve our heart problem for us OR they can play a club and we score 2s 1h 3d 3c
if lho instead returns a small club vs cashing the ace we win the 9 and return the K (pitching hearts from dummy as needed to club plays) once again going for 2s 1h 3d 3c OR setting up the grand finale as in trick 9 above.

this lop fails whenever rho can win the first heart play AND has the incredible foresight to return a heart a low % chance given the bidding (IMHO) OR rho stared with heart Hxx and our duck on the first heart cover set up 2h 2s and 1c for the opps (a much higher but still small % chance IMHO)