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why is 2H 13-16 here? GUBidding

#1 User is offline   virgosrock 

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Posted 2018-June-28, 05:23

i think i should bid 2H over 1NT. Stopped when I saw 13-16 since GUBBO with 10 HCP would take a sunny view and bid 4H.
Or am I basing my comments on result?



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#2 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2018-June-28, 07:22

What kind of system is this? East doesn't even have a stopper.
And you are essentially forbidden from looking for a or fit.

5-2 1 looks way better than 1N with no stopper.
And if opps bid someone should be able to double to find heart fit.
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#3 User is offline   Stephen Tu 

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Posted 2018-June-28, 08:19

I think 1nt is OK. East's hand is awkward, it's a bit too strong to pass IMO, when you can have game on power, and you can't really bid anything but 1nt. Playing in 1S when 3nt/4h/4s is cold is no fun either.
One would prefer to have a full stopper, of course, but sometimes 1nt without stopper works out when:
  • partner has help in the suit
  • opener only has 4 cds in the suit to run
  • opener believes you and doesn't lead his own suit.
  • you stop in 1, the opps run the suit for 5/6 tricks, but you have enough for the rest
  • partner takes you out of 1nt into a suit and it works out
Now as for the range of 2H, that's weird. The ranges for all of 2c/2d/2h are kind of weird and different. I think up to 16 total points is probably OK, but min should be lower? Maybe should be 4 hearts exactly not 4+ due to lack of Michaels. Then have to decide whether we want East to raise or not, which wouldn't be insane. Perhaps with this hand it's a pass but make the CK an ace and it's a raise. Weirdly, at least with practice table GIBs (basic), GIB never wants to bid an inv 3H. It either passes or bids 4 when you tweak a particular high card higher. They should look into that.

Basically I have a tough time going plus on this board if East raises 2H. But hope my style will work better when the hands are tweaked slightly or a lot.
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#4 User is offline   virgosrock 

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Posted 2018-June-28, 12:08

View Poststeve2005, on 2018-June-28, 07:22, said:

What kind of system is this? East doesn't even have a stopper.
And you are essentially forbidden from looking for a or fit.

5-2 1 looks way better than 1N with no stopper.
And if opps bid someone should be able to double to find heart fit.


west has a wide range. passing doesn't seem right. and time and again i find suits are opened with 3 honors missing thus 1nt is ok. plus might be barely short of doubling and then bidding spades.
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#5 User is offline   TylerE 

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Posted 2018-June-28, 13:47

As for the range... I guess GIB system would MIchaels either weaker or stronger. Or make an offshape takeout X.
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#6 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2018-June-28, 14:01

View Postvirgosrock, on 2018-June-28, 12:08, said:

west has a wide range. passing doesn't seem right. and time and again i find suits are opened with 3 honors missing thus 1nt is ok. plus might be barely short of doubling and then bidding spades.


I didn't say passing was right.
I meant to say whole method a disaster when you cant find a second fit without extras.
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#7 User is offline   TylerE 

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Posted 2018-June-28, 14:15

View Poststeve2005, on 2018-June-28, 14:01, said:

I didn't say passing was right.
I meant to say whole method a disaster when you cant find a second fit without extras.


The universe will end if you Michaels on a good 5-4.
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#8 User is offline   virgosrock 

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Posted 2018-June-29, 05:07

View PostTylerE, on 2018-June-28, 14:15, said:

The universe will end if you Michaels on a good 5-4.


I tried going the Michaels route with 5-4 a few times. Was a disaster. e.g. with if I have 5S and 4H GUBBO would choose hearts with 4S and 3H or something like that.

Looks like the consensus of replies is that 2H here should NOT be 13-16.
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#9 User is offline   Stephen Tu 

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Posted 2018-June-29, 05:13

Keep in mind that your hand is "12" by GIB TP count so not far from 13-16, and GIB with East hand would have passed. So it's not that far away, we might tweak it to 11-16.
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#10 User is offline   virgosrock 

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Posted 2018-June-29, 07:05

View PostStephen Tu, on 2018-June-29, 05:13, said:

Keep in mind that your hand is "12" by GIB TP count so not far from 13-16, and GIB with East hand would have passed. So it's not that far away, we might tweak it to 11-16.

pls educate me about TP. We used to have "points" when a fit found. and we have HCP.
During my ten year absence TP seemed to have been introduced.
thanks.
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#11 User is offline   Stephen Tu 

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Posted 2018-June-29, 10:41

"Total points". Which just means HCP + distribution points, which is used by a ton of different authors, using different formulas to calculate, but which tend to work out the same regardless (+/- 1 point), since they are all roughly trying to equate favorable distribution to the trick taking power of a K = 3 pts on the Work HCP scale. Gib's version isn't terribly sophisticated, it just adds 3 for void, 2 for singleton, 1 for doubleton, and subtracts 1 for honors in doubletons/singletons. This is fairly far from optimal, among other things GIB doesn't:
  • give quite enough credit for good long 6/7/8 cd suits, except indirectly through the short suit count
  • discount shortness in partner's suit which typically is not an asset, is duplication of values
  • discount poorly placed honors in opponent's suits
  • promote for honor placement in partner's suits
  • properly evaluate holdings opposite splinter bids
But distribution has to be taken into account to some extent to reflect that hands with shape have more trick taking power than flat hands, generally, particularly at suit contracts. Counting for the short suits indirectly gives some points for long suits (since if you have a long suit it creates shortness elsewhere), which is correct to some extent even if a fit hasn't been found, if you are going to play in that long suit or have some hope of establishing that suit and running it. GIB just needs some dynamic reevaluation code, right now it only is able to capture that on later round decision points if simulations kick in.
So just keep in mind that most GIB point ranges in the descriptions are including something for the shape, not HCP only ranges, so don't think the range is stronger than it actually is.

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