[wank]

26 hcp to make 4M in an 8 card fit? where did you find that stat, the 1930s?

[fromageGB]

wank, on 2016-November-24, 07:05, said:

26 hcp to make 4M in an 8 card fit? where did you find that stat, the 1930s?

That is on the conservative side, agreed. So you would agree that my "9 card fit 23 count" should bid game?

[aguahombre]

Whatever else, I am willing for all my opponents to super-accept on 4-3-3-3 hands. There is no way a 4x3 can re-evaluate to 18 in support of the xfer'd major. Debate that if you want, but all it will do is encourage what I want -- more opponents to do it.

[johnu]

aguahombre, on 2016-November-24, 13:26, said:

Whatever else, I am willing for all my opponents to super-accept on 4-3-3-3 hands. There is no way a 4x3 can re-evaluate to 18 in support of the xfer'd major. Debate that if you want, but all it will do is encourage what I want -- more opponents to do it.

I don't understand why you are focused on an upgrade to 18 (from 17?) points? The key point is showing partner you have 4 card support and a maximum and letting partner take the next move.

[aguahombre]

johnu, on 2016-November-24, 15:30, said:

I don't understand why you are focused on an upgrade to 18 (from 17?) points? The key point is showing partner you have 4 card support and a maximum and letting partner take the next move.

The whole point of super-accepting, IMO is to get to game on a hand where partner will not be inviting game. If I don't have an upgrade based on the transfer, partner will not have what is necessary for game. Simulate that premise, and I predict it will bear out.

If I super-accept, my partner should get us to game with two Kings or an Ace and a King -- and out. With no further leakage from futile gentle probes, I bet those games will be an overall success at any form of scoring. Those who disagree will continue to super-accept with other hands, will break even when partner has enough to invite game anyway, and I believe will lose out when she doesn't.

Or, I am wrong.

[ggwhiz]

aguahombre, on 2016-November-24, 20:31, said:

The whole point of super-accepting, IMO is to get to game on a hand where partner will not be inviting game.

Agreed and with many shapely (6-4) type hands.

As a sidebar an auction of 1nt - 2♦ - 2♥ - 4♥ was originally showing a mild slam try and if you had a super accept (that very few played then) you go slamming. We don't play that anymore, responder was trolling for a super accept and lost their slam ambitions when they didn't get one.

Also, I've NEVER seen a 4x3 worth a super accept.

[Kaitlyn S]

ggwhiz, on 2016-November-25, 08:59, said:

Agreed and with many shapely (6-4) type hands.

As a sidebar an auction of 1nt - 2♦ - 2♥ - 4♥ was originally showing a mild slam try and if you had a super accept (that very few played then) you go slamming. We don't play that anymore, responder was trolling for a super accept and lost their slam ambitions when they didn't get one.

Also, I've NEVER seen a 4x3 worth a super accept.

1nt p 2h p ?

KT98 AKT AKT T98

[nullve]

Kaitlyn S, on 2016-November-25, 14:59, said:

1nt p 2h p ?

KT98 AKT AKT T98

What's your 1N range? 14-18? 13-19?

[ggwhiz]

Kaitlyn S, on 2016-November-25, 14:59, said:

1nt p 2h p ?

KT98 AKT AKT T98

Too strong for 1nt

[aguahombre]

ggwhiz, on 2016-November-25, 15:56, said:

Too strong for 1nt

Just to clarify, Kaitlyn: We were talking about 15-17 1nt opening bids -- the value of which increase to 18 when Responder transfers to our 4-card suit. With the example hand you gave, it already had a value well above 17, so we could not have that when we have opened 1nt.

[johnu]

aguahombre, on 2016-November-25, 20:53, said:

Just to clarify, Kaitlyn: We were talking about 15-17 1nt opening bids -- the value of which increase to 18 when Responder transfers to our 4-card suit. With the example hand you gave, it already had a value well above 17, so we could not have that when we have opened 1nt.

I upgrade a 17 HCP 1NT which could have doubleton trump support to a 17 HCP 1NT with 4 card support and break the transfer, even if 4-3-3-3.

[fromageGB]

aguahombre, on 2016-November-24, 20:31, said:

The whole point of super-accepting, IMO is to get to game on a hand where partner will not be inviting game.

ggwhiz, on 2016-November-25, 08:59, said:

Also, I've NEVER seen a 4x3 worth a super accept.

Yet if your 1NT open is a 2-point range, so that there are no invitations, it is worth super-accepting on a 4333.

[johnu]

aguahombre, on 2016-November-24, 20:31, said:

The whole point of super-accepting, IMO is to get to game on a hand where partner will not be inviting game. If I don't have an upgrade based on the transfer, partner will not have what is necessary for game.

If partner doesn't know that you have a 9+ card trump fit, you won't be in game if partner was planning on passing the transfer.

[m1cha]

fromageGB, on 2016-November-22, 10:27, said:

Rather than the above methods, I play a different transfer break. For a 9 card fit you would want to bid game on a combined 23 hcp, and responder will transfer to 3M or 4M if the total is obviously above or below, but in borderline cases I think it helps to look out for "mirrored doubletons". 5323 opposite 4234 is likely to be game, as opener can ruff a heart, but if opener has 4324 this is likely to earn a trick fewer as he has no ruffs. Whether or not you have values in the doubleton is irrelevant. Anyone else do this?

Not exactly, but actually GIB has a similar concept, bidding the doubleton suit as a transfer break.

[m1cha]

fromageGB, on 2016-November-24, 05:37, said:

For a 9 card fit you would want to bid game on a combined 23 hcp
[...]
I'd be interested to see some statistics, but it is a common opinion that you need 26hcp for an 8 card fit, with 3 hcp or 1 additional card equating to a trick, so game is 26/8, 23/9, and 23/8 makes 9 tricks etc.

In my home country's official bidding system they count 2 points for the ninth card in trumps. In addition, since you have one card more in trumps, you will have one card less in another suit. This will usually translate into a distributional point for having a doubleton instead of a tripleton, or a singleton instead of a doubleton. So yes, if you don't count shortages separately, the ninth card in trumps is worth 3 points, or 1 full trick in this system. The tenth card, however, gives you only two points in total, maybe a rounding issue. I have never seen the statistical evidence behind this system but I like it and I have often felt that GIB does not attribute enough value to good fits in trumps.

If you are looking for statistical evidence you may want to check this thread by tnevolin who did an extensive statistical study on hand evaluation:
http://www.bridgebas...873#entry890873

particularly the link in post 68
https://drive.google...mlUR2ZUblU/view

and within this document on the last page the link "hand evaluation model"
https://drive.google...jZJcXlfa0k/view
Here every trump card counts only 1 point (page 3) but in addition you get an increasing number of points for shortages if you hold more trump cards (page 4).

Finally in the same thread, post 99 by Jogs with this graph claiming the ninth trump to 4-4 is worth half a trick in a balanced hand or a full trick in a distributional hand:
http://jogsbridge.we.../554030.jpg?617

[johnu]

m1cha, on 2016-November-29, 20:24, said:

... I have often felt that GIB does not attribute enough value to good fits in trumps.

Which is strange because GIB usually gives way to much value for misfits.

[fromageGB]

m1cha, on 2016-November-29, 18:52, said:

Not exactly, but actually GIB has a similar concept, bidding the doubleton suit as a transfer break.

Well, that's simple, but many times responder is going to bid game or otherwise regardless of what you do, so simple is very good at giving away information. Unfortunately you can't avoid it in the transfer suit.

[m1cha]

johnu, on 2016-November-30, 12:10, said:

Which is strange because GIB usually gives way to much value for misfits.

I agree about the misfits; but sorry, I don't see what should be strange about it.