[Fluffy]

 zillahandp, on 2016-October-01, 16:39, said:

No phil the only chance of four club tricks is a stiff king on your left then finesse against 10,9 on right, however unlikely then you do not need d finesse so small to Ac, and small to Q assuming it does not drop king on first round the we need two diamonds so chance is 50% plus a tiny bit for singleton k of clubs, if clubs split badly and we need three d tricks the you have to play for Kx on your right. Good luck in the Ryder cup.

You might be looking at the wrong diagram. We are missing 10, 9 and 8 in clubs.

[Phil]

 zillahandp, on 2016-October-01, 16:39, said:

Good luck in the Ryder cup.

Thanks. Kooch played like a champ today and it's great to go into singles up 3.

[Kaitlyn S]

 zillahandp, on 2016-October-01, 16:39, said:

No phil the only chance of four club tricks is a stiff king on your left then finesse against 10,9 on right, however unlikely then you do not need d finesse so small to Ac, and small to Q assuming it does not drop king on first round the we need two diamonds so chance is 50% plus a tiny bit for singleton k of clubs, if clubs split badly and we need three d tricks the you have to play for Kx on your right. Good luck in the Ryder cup.

What am I missing? Even if we had the C8, we're saying 50% on a good club break and some small chance on a 4-1 break? That's like a total of 37% or so. (It might be slightly improved by playing West for 10x of diamonds if West has the four clubs.)

My initial stab has to be better than 37%. When I led a diamond to the queen, I was making on 3-2 clubs, singleton king, plus when I got the extra heart entry (East didn't have four hearts) 4-1 clubs in East. That's close to 82% of the DK onside combinations, so that's 41% right there, which whoops that 37%. But I also made the hand sometimes when the DK was off - when West has the CK and diamonds were 3-3 or a club-diamond squeeze or a doubleton king of clubs I get to pick 2 out of three of these I think. I may be off but I think that's another 16% or so, putting me at about 57%. This might be enhanced a bit because when West covers the club, I get to include a doubleton D10 (I can cash my top D, if the 10 drops, cash the D9 and have my tricks. If the D10 doesn't drop, I cash the other diamond picking up 3-3 and still have my squeeze possibility.)

Once you give up a club trick, you're never better than 50% (you need the diamond period) so it seems like those initial lines were better. What am I missing?

[MrAce]

 zillahandp, on 2016-October-01, 16:39, said:

No phil the only chance of four club tricks is a stiff king on your left then finesse against 10,9 on right, however unlikely then you do not need d finesse so small to Ac, and small to Q assuming it does not drop king on first round the we need two diamonds so chance is 50% plus a tiny bit for singleton k of clubs, if clubs split badly and we need three d tricks the you have to play for Kx on your right. Good luck in the Ryder cup.

Are you aware that you do not have ♣8?

[Kaitlyn S]

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[MrAce]

 nullve, on 2016-October-01, 05:40, said:

Why not take the club finesse at trick 3 (after cashing the ♥A and seeing that both opps follow)? The point is:

* If there are 4 diamond tricks available, taking the club finesse can never cost the contract.
* If there are at most 3 diamond tricks available, we'll need to take the club finesse at some point anyway.
* The number of diamond tricks we need depends on how the club suit behaves. (There are 4 possibilites to consider, in terms of who has the ♣K and whether clubs split (32).)

I like things you say when ♦K is on but I am still not convinced in the points you try to make (highlighted bold)

What is your line exactly? And how does playing clubs help you to play diamonds?

As far as I know, you suggest to play ♣J/Q at trick 3 (after ♥A) (correct me if I am wrong)

Assume that it is covered and you won with ♣A (or do you duck?) Do you play 2nd club to test clubs? If not test clubs how will this help you to decide how to play diamonds? If you test and find out 3-2 , you just created a club winner for W when he hold Kxx ♦, where starting ♦ to Q would, a very realistic line, makes easy 3♦+2♠+2♣+5♥=12 tricks. Looks like you go down when 3-2 clubs and 3-3 diamonds, everything friendly. No?

Assume the ♣J/Q is not covered and held the trick, what next? Same position. You either test clubs and create 2nd trick for defense when W has ♦K and ♣K. Or you play diamonds without knowing how the club suit behaves.

[Phil]

The number of diamond tricks we need depends on how the club suit behaves. (There are 4 possibilites to consider, in terms of who has the ♣K and whether clubs split (32).)

Actually, I would say the opposite - the number of club tricks we need depends on what happens in the diamond suit.

[nullve]

 MrAce, on 2016-October-01, 20:05, said:

As far as I know, you suggest to play ♣J/Q at trick 3 (after ♥A)

Yes.

 MrAce, on 2016-October-01, 20:05, said:

Assume that it is covered and you won with ♣A (or do you duck?) Do you play 2nd club to test clubs? If not test clubs how will this help you to decide how to play diamonds? If you test and find out 3-2 , you just created a club winner for W when he hold Kxx ♦, where starting ♦ to Q would, a very realistic line, makes easy 3♦+2♠+2♣+5♥=12 tricks. Looks like you go down when 3-2 clubs and 3-3 diamonds, everything friendly. No?

Assume the ♣J/Q is not covered and held the trick, what next? Same position. You either test clubs and create 2nd trick for defense when W has ♦K and ♣K. Or you play diamonds without knowing how the club suit behaves.

Ok, I realise it sounded like I wanted to find out everything about the club suit before playing on diamonds, but that wasn't the idea. Sorry.

The idea was rather that even partial information about the club suit, e.g. about who has the K, might be useful when handling the diamond suit.

For instance, suppose the ♣Q/J is not covered. Then it makes sense to switch to a "diamonds first" line of the kind that others have suggested, except that one's handling of the diamond suit might be influenced by whether RHO follows suit.

And suppose the ♣Q/J is covered, which seems to be the critical variaton for my line. Then it might be relevant whether

i) RHO shows out (indicating diamond length)
ii) RHO follows suit with the 8,9 or T (Grosvenor from ♣T98x, so suggesting a (32) or 41 club break and therefore diamond length with RHO rather than with LHO).
iii) RHO follows suit with the only spot below the 8 (not revealing much about how clubs break, except that RHO might have chosen to Grosvenor with T98x)

I'm not sure what's best in each case (and I must admit I haven't thought much about it), but I can think of two natural sublines:

1) [cases i) and ii) primarily] Play the ♦J from dummy at trick 4, both with a view to finessing diamonds twice and as a smothering play against LHO, since RHO is the opp most likely to have diamond length. But if RHO covers and the 8 or T doesn't appear from LHO, it might be best to duck a club at trick 5 in ii) or iii).
2) [cases ii) and iii only] Play a diamond towards the Q, intending to duck a club if it holds the trick. Then if clubs are (32), I'm home. If clubs are 14, East will again be squeezed in the minor suits provided he also has the ♦K (seems likely).