[lmilne]

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[wank]

4 spades would show far more

[nige1]

lmilne, on 2016-January-04, 06:54, said:

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I rank

• 3♠ = Highly unlikely to end the auction.
• 4♠ = Overbid

[gszes]

icky holding in diamonds while the spades are ok need specific heart help to keep even 3sx from being a disaster opposite bupkus for the opps. No real problem with 3s bid but don't be surprised if p gets carried away.

[ahydra]

I'll join the others with 3S. You can't hide an 8-card suit but we're nowhere near good enough for 4S.

ahydra

[rhm]

nige1, on 2016-January-04, 15:55, said:

I rank

• 3♠ = Highly unlikely to end the auction.
• 4♠ = Overbid

Highly unlikely sounds to me like an overbid.
Partner will often pass when you have ten tricks and if he raises you are in danger of making 12 tricks.

The risk of getting too high after an immediate 4♠ is probably less. 4♠ also shuts out 4♦ by LHO.

Rainer Herrmann

[helene_t]

rhm, on 2016-January-05, 03:46, said:

The risk of getting too high after an immediate 4♠ is probably less.

huh? 4♠ is stronger than 3♠.

But yes, if partner has a strong hand with long clubs we could get too high.

[Phil]

rhm, on 2016-January-05, 03:46, said:

Highly unlikely sounds to me like an overbid.
Partner will often pass when you have ten tricks and if he raises you are in danger of making 12 tricks.

The risk of getting too high after an immediate 4♠ is probably less. 4♠ also shuts out 4♦ by LHO.

Rainer Herrmann

I'd be more concerned with making 3 if partner passes and I'm far less confident of making 4 even if partner raises.

Shutting out diamonds doesn't seem to be much of a concern. If LHO were to raise diamonds partner gets to make a responsive x.

[rhm]

Phil, on 2016-January-05, 15:04, said:

I'd be more concerned with making 3 if partner passes

Don't we all once we languish in a part-score?

Quote

and I'm far less confident of making 4 even if partner raises.

Admittedly all depends where partner's values are.
If in clubs you may well be right, if in hearts you are certainly wrong and chances are almost equal where his values are.
Give partner for example ♠Jx ♥AQxx ♦xx ♣JTxxx and he will pass 3♠ (even with more), mainly because partner can not see a good fit. .

Quote

Shutting out diamonds doesn't seem to be much of a concern. If LHO were to raise diamonds partner gets to make a responsive x.

You miss the point. The question is not reaching 4♠ if LHO raises. The point is that you will be unlikely to be allowed to play there when you can make.
Over an immediate 4♠ LHO opponent has to take an immediate decision whether to sacrifice or not.
Over 3♠ you give them much more leeway.

I am well aware that this is not the hand partner expects when you jump to 4♠.
Unfortunately you do not always get the hand fitting your agreements.
I am not saying 4♠ is right and 3♠ is wrong.
What I claim is that the decision is very close and 4♠ can win in a number of ways.
The discussion here is, as it usually is, lopsided.

Rainer Herrmann

[lmilne]

rhm, on 2016-January-06, 05:14, said:

Give partner for example ♠Jx ♥AQxx ♦xx ♣JTxxx and he will pass 3♠ (even with more), mainly because partner can not see a good fit. .

Without stating my view on this hand, I don't think pass is automatic with the above hand opposite a vulnerable 3♠ overcall. I would at least think about raising at the table.

[rhm]

lmilne, on 2016-January-06, 06:27, said:

Without stating my view on this hand, I don't think pass is automatic with the above hand opposite a vulnerable 3♠ overcall. I would at least think about raising at the table.

Fair enough.
One can have different views how to act over a preempt, which makes this discussion difficult.

The only author I am aware of, who has written about this subject in some detail was Mike Lawrence. (e.g. Tips on Competitive Bidding)
He recommended when acting over a preempt overcaller should assume to find 7 HCP in partners hand, because otherwise you will often get stolen blind.
Accordingly advancer should not act unless holding more than 7HCP before considering further action.

As with most of Lawrence advice this sounds sensible to me.

The following is taken from one of the answers to http://www.michaelsl...es/005_frm.html

"You have more than the seven points partner expects and you have good heart support. Raise to 4H. The key is that when you have seven points with support, you realize that this is about what your partner is expecting.
The rule of seven says that when an opponent preempts, you may 'expect' your partner to have seven ordinary points. When you have more than seven, you bid. When you have seven, you pass. When you have less than seven, you go down."

The hand used for this explanation was ♠Q8 ♥K73 ♦ A73 ♣109763 after (3♦)-3♥-(Pass)-????

Rainer Herrmann