Posted 2015-November-23, 12:52
Yeah, I don't think anybody thinks that 2♠ isn't "demonstrably suggested by the unauthorized information". And it clearly will almost certainly work better than anything else. So it all boils down to "would a significant number of the player's peers think about passing this, and would a non-trivial number of them actually do it?" If the answer is "yes", then we roll back to 1NT making whatever. If the answer is "no", then we let 2♠ stand.
And the difficulty is, of course, determining the player's peers. I argued that I am highly likely to be not one because I play a weak NT by preference, and have a *lot* more experience than most with these auctions. I would also argue that it is likely I would open this hand, even at these colours, at MPs. My *guess* is that I'm also not likely to be this player's peer in sheer experience and play level (and neither would most of the commenters here) - but it could turn out that I'm wrong. [Edit: I am reminded that this is Flight A NAP final. Ignore this. Still, I wonder how you get to either 2500 MPs or "happy playing against minimum 2500 MPs" without knowing what to do over a weak NT with a borderline call. Oh wait, no I don't - they've learned exactly how to.]
I will say that were I to be playing with not my regular partners, I would treat this as a teaching moment of the "Sorry, partner, from your manner I thought *you* had it!" genre. I'd pass and once partner sees the bad score, explain that "you have to learn to pass flat 11s routinely. If you tell me bidding is safe with your hesitation, the TD will take a good score away from me if I bid, and let me have a bad one." Even though this hand is in fact borderline safe (which means that we think that bidding is "well, I can *see* people thinking about passing, but nobody's really doing to do it, right?"), it's also borderline "teachable".
When I go to sea, don't fear for me, Fear For The Storm -- Birdie and the Swansong (tSCoSI)