[Fluffy]

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Click on next to follow the play, opps play std carding if it matters.

[ycos]

W have 4 or 6 diamonds. If they play dont or capp, he could bid the diamonds if he have 6. I bet for J♦ on E.

[Fluffy]

ycos, on 2015-June-23, 06:01, said:

W have 4 or 6 diamonds. If they play dont or capp, he could bid the diamonds if he have 6. I bet for J♦ on E.

Given that you can only trap ♦J on East when diamonds are 5-3 I don't think your line is very good.

[nige1]

Fluffy, on 2015-June-23, 01:44, said:

Click on next to follow the play, opps play std carding if it matters.

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(Guessing) Run it. Ruffing it wins only if RHO started with a trebleton knave. Assumes that LHO is capable of passing 1N with 12+HCP, entries, and a good minor suit.

[gszes]

It is right to ruff this trick only when rho began with Jxx in diamonds.
It is right to NOT ruff this dia anytime rho began with xx(very unlikely due to no dia bid) xxx xxxx.

There is NOTHING in the bidding or play that appears to alter these odds. I prefer to go with the odds (how many times have I regretted saying that) and NOT ruff this trick. Even if I lose I might still win the post mortem in the forums:)

[MrAce]

gszes, on 2015-June-23, 09:33, said:

There is NOTHING in the bidding or play that appears to alter these odds. I prefer to go with the odds (how many times have I regretted saying that) and NOT ruff this trick. Even if I lose I might still win the post mortem in the forums:)

George...follow the play again. RHO can not have xxxx. LHO already followed 3 diamonds and discarded one.

However you are right that he is unlikely to have xx because no diamond bid AND, with 2263 hand LHO could easily set us by playing 2nd spade after ♠A (trump promotion) on 3rd spade)

So RHO has either xxx or Jxx.

[mikeh]

there isn't a lot to be going on, but the diamond spots are a little suggestive.

RHO played the 4 at trick one, which I assume was a suggestion that he didn't really want any switch, which is reasonably consistent with the subsequent play.

LHO, tho, played the 3, on the discard, and now the 6. Where is the 5?

Assuming our cases are RHO with J42 or 542, he has to play as he did, but with the former, LHO has the 5 and 6 available at the key trick, and could have played either. If he was lazy, then he'd play the 5 more than 50% of the time. Meanwhile, if RHO had 542, LHO has no choice...he is forced to play the 6.

Thus on restricted choice reasoning, I place LHO with AKJ63 and RHO with 542.

Those spots...it is easy to miss them (assuming I am correct)

[MrAce]

mikeh, on 2015-June-23, 12:14, said:

there isn't a lot to be going on, but the diamond spots are a little suggestive.

RHO played the 4 at trick one, which I assume was a suggestion that he didn't really want any switch, which is reasonably consistent with the subsequent play.

LHO, tho, played the 3, on the discard, and now the 6. Where is the 5?

Assuming our cases are RHO with J42 or 542, he has to play as he did, but with the former, LHO has the 5 and 6 available at the key trick, and could have played either. If he was lazy, then he'd play the 5 more than 50% of the time. Meanwhile, if RHO had 542, LHO has no choice...he is forced to play the 6.

Thus on restricted choice reasoning, I place LHO with AKJ63 and RHO with 542.

Those spots...it is easy to miss them (assuming I am correct)

True but OTOH, people usually make a suit preference signals when pd cashes the dummy's singleton on opening lead. RHO has a preference on spades than he has on clubs and I do not think he expects pd to understand ♦4 as "no preference"
Then why did he not play 5 from 542 to be a little bit more clear? Perhaps he has J42?

[mikeh]

MrAce, on 2015-June-23, 12:46, said:

True but OTOH, people usually make a suit preference signals when pd cashes the dummy's singleton on opening lead. RHO has a preference on spades than he has on clubs and I do not think he expects pd to understand ♦4 as "no preference"
Then why did he not play 5 from 542 to be a little bit more clear? Perhaps he has J42?

1stly, it isn't clear that he has a spade preference. He played the 9 on the first round, but this isn't clearly QJ109x(x), since many would play the Q with that holding, so maybe he has J109xx(x). Even with the QJ109x(x), he doesn't want partner to shift away from the spade A.

Secondly, while we can see that declarer holds the 987 of diamonds, RHO doesn't have a clue about where the spots are and may in any event automatically choose the 4 from 542 as the 'middle one', even if, on reflection, he doesn't worry that partner has, say AK987, and so think the 5 to be suggesting spades.

In addition, I think the inferences from LHO's spots are simply more compelling, tho not conclusively so, than the uncertainties about RHO.

Finally, this was a fluffy problem which means that there is a real answer that is not merely guesswork, and your points about RHO are too uncertain, imo, to be the basis of a fluffy problem (which is a compliment to Gonzalo, btw )

[Fluffy]

My main goal here was that people here would learn that when diamonds are 5-3, ♦J is not 5/8 on our left, because ♦AK are known cards, and it is like if diamonds were 3-3 actually and the ♦J is 50% (When they are 5-3)

Once I took that into account I think there is another issue, LHO has no count on diamonds. Mikeh says he has a choice of spots from 65, but he is forgetting he also has a choice with J6, he doesn't know where the ♦7 lies, and that is a really important issue, since not covering with that holding could be a big disaster.

So I was wondering if the principle of "they don't cover, they don't have it" was a sound principle to apply on ruffing finesses from hand. The more I think of it the more I believe it applies.

[mikeh]

I don't understand the argument about the 7.

Surely RHO gave a count card with the 2? So LHO knows S's length, and no way did S play the 8 at trick 1 from Q985 Now, if the opps don't know how to give remaining count, I accept that there is logic in the argument, since maybe opener had Q98 tight. However, players who know what diamond to play to discourage any shift probably know how to give count, so I just don't think that there is any holding where LHO should expect that it is important to cover with J6.

[WesleyC]

I think more information about the opponents skill level, style and methods over 1NT would be valuable here. I'd also like more information about their agreements on carding when there is a singleton in dummy.

I don't fully agree with mikeh's restricted choice argument, because the argument that LHO would usually play the 5 from 65 leaves RHO with a choice from 542 in a spot where it looks like they will often have spade preference (assuming that's what the card meant).

If LHO didn't have a way to show [A? xx AKJxxx xxx] then I'd be afraid to go against the odds and would take the finesse, but if that hand isn't possible my gut tells me to play RHO for ♦Jxx.

[Fluffy]

mikeh, on 2015-June-23, 17:46, said:

Surely RHO gave a count card with the 2?

Remaining count from J72 is to play the 2. He wouldn't want to show his remaining doubleton by playing the jack from J2.

Even when they should know the count, sometimes people just fail to give proper count on suits were it might help declarer.

[ycos]

Fluffy, on 2015-June-23, 07:19, said:

Given that you can only trap ♦J on East when diamonds are 5-3 I don't think your line is very good.

The only chance is to play for 6 diamonds on W, u right . E played 4 2 , W played A K .

[gszes]

MrAce, on 2015-June-23, 10:20, said:

George...follow the play again. RHO can not have xxxx. LHO already followed 3 diamonds and discarded one.

However you are right that he is unlikely to have xx because no diamond bid AND, with 2263 hand LHO could easily set us by playing 2nd spade after ♠A (trump promotion) on 3rd spade)

So RHO has either xxx or Jxx.

SIGH getting OLD I could have sworn lho pitched a spade not a dia so my :odds: have taken a huge dump but still favorable to let it ride. TY for correction