After a precision jump to game
#1
Posted 2015-May-10, 18:08
w/r, long matches
(1♠) - 2♥ - (4♠) - ?
1♠ is 10-15, 4♠ can be anything.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#2
Posted 2015-May-10, 21:17
X has to be right around 70% of the time to break even overall and I think one needs to be very optimistic to make that assumption.
Pass
#3
Posted 2015-May-11, 05:07
-- Bertrand Russell
#4
Posted 2015-May-11, 05:13
#5
Posted 2015-May-11, 05:39
Pass.
#6
Posted 2015-May-11, 09:56
Give opener at least 10, partner 11+ and look at our (soft, soft, ugly) 12, and RHO doesn't have one of those 10-12 semi-balanced 4♠ calls that can lead to a lucrative penalty double.
I am not familiar with the tendencies of good big clubbers when holding, say, 4432 hands with 6 hcp and 4 spades but I don't think that it can be long-term winning bridge to bid game at unfavourable!
So I reason that RHO has more or less the same type of crap that most standard or 2/1 players have. Now I can infer 0-1 spade over there and hope for some diamonds. I would always bid 5♦ here against standard or 2/1 players, since it is too dangerous to pass.
I've gone for numbers before. I'll go for more numbers in the future. But while I tend to be chicken, I have slowly learned that fortune favours the (thinking) brave, so 5♦ it is. I just hope there isn't a lightning double on AJ9x on my left
Btw, this call shows nothing about hearts. I saw an earlier post suggesting that bidding diamonds here implied heart tolerance, but I think that that is an interpretation based on wishful thinking. There is nothing about the auction that says we don't simply have 7 or 8 diamonds, and indeed I wish I did.
Further btw, pass has some attractions on the basis that maybe nothing makes, as helene suggests. However, my Qxx is in the lock if dummy has long spades, and it isn't too hard to come up with a double-game swing layout....partner is say void AQxxxx Axxx xxx: what do we expect him to do over 4♠?
#8
Posted 2015-May-13, 07:04
Once you've reached this conclusion, with no aces, an undisclosed 6 card suit and some great texture in hearts I think it's right to take insurance with 5D. Fairly often you'll be taking a phantom sacrifice, but if either 4S or 5D is making (which isn't at all unlikely) then bidding is likely to win big.
#9
Posted 2015-May-13, 09:36
WesleyC, on 2015-May-13, 07:04, said:
Why do people take me so literally?
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#10
Posted 2015-May-13, 13:13
foobar, on 2015-May-11, 11:00, said:
Oh, definitely.
I mean, I'm pretty sure that the best thing about playing strong club is the limited openings, and the 1♣ opening is something you live with so you can get the other stuff, but if you feel you actually gain on the 16-20 hands... well, good for you but I just have to suspect you're either wrong or playing against poor opposition.
-- Bertrand Russell
#11
Posted 2015-May-13, 16:22
WesleyC, on 2015-May-13, 07:04, said:
Once you've reached this conclusion, with no aces, an undisclosed 6 card suit and some great texture in hearts I think it's right to take insurance with 5D. Fairly often you'll be taking a phantom sacrifice, but if either 4S or 5D is making (which isn't at all unlikely) then bidding is likely to win big.
can be anything obviously overstating but in addition to the normal distributional raise in standard responder can have a very good defensive hand with no slam ambition planning on making 4♠. So when you bid 5♦ you could go for a number.
#12
Posted 2015-May-13, 16:53
#13
Posted 2015-May-13, 17:12
akwoo, on 2015-May-13, 16:53, said:
Probably not, they will be in 11-15 pt range which % wise is the most common range for standard 12-21.
#14
Posted 2015-May-13, 20:47
steve2005, on 2015-May-13, 16:22, said:
If you look at the HCP distribution around the table:
Our hand has 11 HCP.
Give the 1S bidder an average of 12 HCP.
Give partner's 2H bid, an average of 10 HCP.
That leaves the 4S bidder with about 7 HCP.
A reasonable opponent bidding 4S with minimal HCP values is likely to have a shapely hand and a big fit.
5D might still go for a number, but you shouldn't be worried about responder having a good defensive hand.
#15
Posted 2015-May-14, 10:05
WesleyC, on 2015-May-13, 20:47, said:
Our hand has 11 HCP.
Give the 1S bidder an average of 12 HCP.
Give partner's 2H bid, an average of 10 HCP.
That leaves the 4S bidder with about 7 HCP.
A reasonable opponent bidding 4S with minimal HCP values is likely to have a shapely hand and a big fit.
5D might still go for a number, but you shouldn't be worried about responder having a good defensive hand.
But in this case, Opener could have 10, the overcaller could have 8, and our 11 leaves 11 for responder. So while responder probably has distributional shape it need not be the case.
So this means we are largely on a guess with a three-sided coin of double, pass and 5!d.
Frankly our hand isn't that great. The sQ is worthless and its aceless. Maybe the best we can hope for is void AKxxxx Axx xxxx which looks like the nuts but how will it play on a spade lead? You are pretty much relying on 22 trump at this point although the h9 is crucial.
Against that partner may have x AKxxxx xx QJxx that probably gets 500 if we double and 5D is a phantom.
Partner actually had void Axxxxx AT xxxxx. Teammates went down in 4s at the other table on a spade misguess. 5D went for 1100 NV (should have been 800).
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#16
Posted 2015-May-14, 12:23
At worst expected: void...AKxxxx..AT....xxxxx
Never expected partner to have that hand. Now I know.
#17
Posted 2015-May-14, 15:32
Phil, on 2015-May-14, 10:05, said:
What did 1♠ opener and 4♠ responder have?
#18
Posted 2015-May-14, 19:28
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.