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Lead to 3N

Poll: Lead to 3N (24 member(s) have cast votes)

Lead?

  1. Spade (1 votes [4.17%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 4.17%

  2. High H (systemic) (7 votes [29.17%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 29.17%

  3. Low H (6 votes [25.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 25.00%

  4. D (9 votes [37.50%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 37.50%

  5. AC (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. TC (1 votes [4.17%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 4.17%

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#1 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-21, 11:50



Pick a lead.
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#2 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-21, 13:00

yuck

heart, though club ace might work better
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#3 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2014-December-21, 19:14

Big Diamond!
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#4 User is offline   Cthulhu D 

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Posted 2014-December-21, 21:50

Trying a systemic diamond honor with no great conviction.
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#5 User is offline   chasetb 

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Posted 2014-December-22, 00:19

I think the MP lead would be a honor. However, I'm going to lead a , all or nothing.
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#6 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2014-December-22, 17:56

Why does everyone feel the need to get active on this hand? RHO has the minors stopped and LHO has the majors. LHO is probably 5-5 or 5-4 and their suits look like they are breaking poorly.

Its quite possible partner has spades wedged, but he didn't double, so I will try the 9.
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#7 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-22, 22:02

I can't remember the other hands for sure now, but I remember the actual outcome and GiB's analysis - they were from a Camrose match I kibbitzed (I'll try to reconstruct them below). Tony Forrester held the OP hand and led the K, which looked dubious to me.

According to GiB it was the only lead to let the contract through (and made making trivial in practice). Of the others, a heart lead was supposed to net an extra undertrick, a spade and club both took it one off. The full hand was very roughly this (though I'm not certain I've got either the honour layout or distribution quite right, never mind the pips :( ):


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#8 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-December-22, 23:07

I know the hand is revealed but I really would have led . I agree with Phil with the most part, but I think it is also obvious that pd can not double 3 NT and risk a big loss when I hold KQ and an A in minors.
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#9 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-December-23, 04:25

View PostMrAce, on 2014-December-22, 23:07, said:

I know the hand is revealed but I really would have led .


I preferred the heart because there's a chance that declarer has 2 spades, in which case he'll have to develop spades by himself anyway.

But sure, on a good day it can work very well and on a normal day it shouldn't compromise.
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#10 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-December-23, 12:07

I liked a low heart (obviously staring at all four hands at the time). Nice and passive, which is what I think we want, but I'd be slightly worried about carving P's honour doubleton and establishing a finesse position if I led the 9 or 8.
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