[ArtK78]

lrussell, on 2014-September-26, 06:53, said:

After 1♥ - 4NT I can see a few possible disasters

If 4NT is RKC
1♥ - 4NT - 5♣ - 5♦ - 6♥
(yes partner I have the ♥Queen) - how nice!
1♥ - 4NT - 5♦ (0-3 or 1-4)
do I bid 6♦ or pass?

When 4NT isn't RKC:
1♥ - 4NT - 6♦ (1 ace + ♦void)
this won't be a success!
1♥ - 4NT - 5NT (2 aces + ♦void)
will partner pass 6♦? will it make?
1♥ - 4NT - 5♥ (2 aces) DealMaster analysis shows
partner has ♠A and ♥A then 6♦ makes 27%
partner has ♣A and ♠A then 6♦ makes 57%
partner has ♣A and ♥A then 6♦ makes 76%
So that gives a combined probability of roughly 53%

After all that I'm NOT bidding 4NT - I'm bidding 5♦
1. If partner has 0 or 1 ace I'm not too high
2. If partner has 2 aces I've missed a 53% 6♦ (no big deal)
3. If partner has 3 bullets he might just bid 6♦ by himself
4 I've avoided a possible RKC or non-RKC disaster

I can't speak for those who play 4NT over 1♥ as RKCB, as that would be a silly bid to make on this hand.

But for those of us who play 4NT as Aces only Blackwood over 1 of a suit, there are certain principles that apply:

(1) We are asking for aces, not voids (in all likelihood, the 4NT bid is based on a solid 8 card or longer suit opposite the void).
(2) There is no suit agreement.
(3) With the exception of 5NT, the next bid by responder is the final contract.

I am not claiming that 4NT is the perfect bid on this hand. After all, partner could hold:

Axx
AKQJxxx
---
xxx

and we will wind up in 6♦. But I am saying that it is the bid most likely to get our side to the correct contract, which certainly rates to be either 5♦, 6♦ or 7♦.

As for partner bidding on if he has 3 aces, that is just wonderful. I hold:

x
x
QJTxxxxxx
xx

That gives us 10 or 11 tricks. So you may have just converted our plus score to a minus score. And this hand looks more like a natural 5♦ call than the hand given in the OP.

[neilkaz]

ArtK78, on 2014-September-26, 08:31, said:

I can't speak for those who play 4NT over 1♥ as RKCB, as that would be a silly bid to make on this hand.

But for those of us who play 4NT as Aces only Blackwood over 1 of a suit, there are certain principles that apply:

(1) We are asking for aces, not voids (in all likelihood, the 4NT bid is based on a solid 8 card or longer suit opposite the void).
(2) There is no suit agreement.
(3) With the exception of 5NT, the next bid by responder is the final contract.

I am not claiming that 4NT is the perfect bid on this hand. After all, partner could hold:

Axx
AKQJxxx
---
xxx

and we will wind up in 6♦. But I am saying that it is the bid most likely to get our side to the correct contract, which certainly rates to be either 5♦, 6♦ or 7♦.

Yes, this...exactly this. Art you posted your reply before I could.