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I decided to pass this, though I was fairly sure they wouldn't pass at the other table (they didn't). Game may be unlikely, but the cost of missing game is high.
Pass was right this time, but I'm not confident about it. Was I just lucky?
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Was I just lucky?
#1
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Posted 2014-September-08, 04:28
Sectional swiss, average opponents.
I decided to pass this, though I was fairly sure they wouldn't pass at the other table (they didn't). Game may be unlikely, but the cost of missing game is high.
Pass was right this time, but I'm not confident about it. Was I just lucky?
I decided to pass this, though I was fairly sure they wouldn't pass at the other table (they didn't). Game may be unlikely, but the cost of missing game is high.
Pass was right this time, but I'm not confident about it. Was I just lucky?
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#2
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Posted 2014-September-08, 06:39
P being a passed hand makes a huge difference in the expected balance
of power as well as in the risk vs reward calculation. The RVR seems to
have mainly 4 spades as the target for the great score chance and since
partner has already passed at favorable the odds are they will need to
hold exactly 5 spades in order to make 4s feasible. That's a pretty darn
small target to hit.
P average hand rates to be around 6 while lho rates to be around 11 so
we have a small target of 5 spades and p needs to be well above average to
give us a real shot at game. Slim pickings with a fair amount of risk if
lho turns out to be the one with well above average power.
pass
seems reasonable under these conditions.
of power as well as in the risk vs reward calculation. The RVR seems to
have mainly 4 spades as the target for the great score chance and since
partner has already passed at favorable the odds are they will need to
hold exactly 5 spades in order to make 4s feasible. That's a pretty darn
small target to hit.
P average hand rates to be around 6 while lho rates to be around 11 so
we have a small target of 5 spades and p needs to be well above average to
give us a real shot at game. Slim pickings with a fair amount of risk if
lho turns out to be the one with well above average power.
pass
seems reasonable under these conditions.
#3
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Posted 2014-September-08, 07:06
I will try double. No special confidence but I hate selling out to favorable preempts with good hands.
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#4
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Posted 2014-September-08, 08:09
billw55, on 2014-September-08, 07:06, said:
I will try double. No special confidence but I hate selling out to favorable preempts with good hands.
You are not selling out by passing. On some occasions partner, even though he is a passed hand, will balance. It is clear that on those occasions it will be right to balance. There are others where it is right to be in the auction, but I suspect on balance your best action is to pass in direct seat. This is especially true if partner will open the bidding on any excuse.
#5
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Posted 2014-September-08, 09:11
humilities, on 2014-September-08, 04:28, said:
Pass was right this time, but I'm not confident about it. Was I just lucky?
I think you were both right and lucky...
Rik
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#6
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Posted 2014-September-08, 09:39
Well, you might be cold for 3NT opposite a simple hand like
Axx
Axx
xxx
xxxx
Not that game will be reached if you act, though...
The answer to whether or not you're right passing would require a sim. Without one, my feeling is that pass is ok. I would probably do it.
Axx
Axx
xxx
xxxx
Not that game will be reached if you act, though...
The answer to whether or not you're right passing would require a sim. Without one, my feeling is that pass is ok. I would probably do it.
#7
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Posted 2014-September-08, 11:55
It is either pass or DBL. Any other call is pretty bad imho.
It is easier to pass for those of us who opens very aggressively 1 level or preempts aggressively. But if your general style is very conservative at these colors, and we have a lot of players like this, then you are pretty much gambling with either action and this is another downside example of this style.
It is easier to pass for those of us who opens very aggressively 1 level or preempts aggressively. But if your general style is very conservative at these colors, and we have a lot of players like this, then you are pretty much gambling with either action and this is another downside example of this style.
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#8
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Posted 2014-September-08, 12:04
i double. don't need much from p to make 3nt. at this vulnerability it's far too big a position to take to pass imo, risk/reward, etc. on a bad day passers score -140 and score up with -600.
#9
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Posted 2014-September-08, 12:12
wank, on 2014-September-08, 12:04, said:
i double. don't need much from p to make 3nt. at this vulnerability it's far too big a position to take to pass imo. on a bad day passers score -140 and score up with -600.
At least we can blame our teammates for being -600 instead of -100 if that happens
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#10
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Posted 2014-September-08, 15:06
IMO passing is a joke.
Partner may have
Axxxx
??
??
(A/K)xx
and game is good. Playing partner for 2 cards here is just normal bridge.
Even if game is not there, on many hands both 3M will make.
Partner may have
Axxxx
??
??
(A/K)xx
and game is good. Playing partner for 2 cards here is just normal bridge.
Even if game is not there, on many hands both 3M will make.
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Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#11
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Posted 2014-September-08, 15:51
Playing my preferred style (light openings), it's a relatively easy pass, but it might be a much tougher choice between P and X depending on partnership tendencies.
#12
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Posted 2014-September-09, 00:05
VIP member has correctly said everything.I wish to add one more factor.One does not yet know what LHO hand is since his turn has to come still.Being vulnerable against not ,if you double ,you may be slaughtered for 800 plus.
#13
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Posted 2014-September-09, 00:55
Realatively easy pass for me as well. Put this as a problem opposite a non passed hand and it is much harder.
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#14
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Posted 2014-September-09, 02:13
Opposite a nonpassed hand I would think it would be a pretty clear dbl. Not a dbl I would be happy with, but it would be clear that the alternatives are worse imo.
Agree with pass here.
Agree with pass here.
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#15
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Posted 2014-September-09, 04:19
I would pass.
#16
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Posted 2014-September-10, 10:26
I don't think a weak NT with 3 cards in the other major is worth a double at 3 level.
#17
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Posted 2014-September-10, 12:46
yunling, on 2014-September-10, 10:26, said:
I don't think a weak NT with 3 cards in the other major is worth a double at 3 level.
Edgar Kaplan would disapprove calling this a weak NT. It has 15.80 of his knr points. 14.99 knr points is a maximum weak NT in his book.
knr = Kaplan @ Rubens points.
edit: I agree with pass for the problem.
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