gszes (reformatted to fit on a sensible number of lines), on 2014-June-28, 09:19, said:
Pass
Sure somedays you will get lucky and make something but who knows what you will do if you ever have a hand strong enough to actually bid here. Examining the evidence seems to make it abundantly clear that lho is ready willing and thoroughly able to pounce on your side for a monstrous penalty.
P has passed and for light opening bidders this has to be something of a wake up call as to how badly we can get slaughtered here. rho has a average 8 we have 15 so there are 17 hcp running around loose somewhere and with p dropping to an average of 6 due to original pass lho will average 11 positionally advantaged hcp that does not bode well for our side. Sometimes it may be better to let the preempt do its job and save your bidding for hands with a bit more potential.
I have some sympathy for 3s (going for the money) and 4c bidders but realistically these bids both seem to have less than a 30% chance of success and invite some really huge negative scores.
OMHO pass=8 4c =3 3s x = 2
I think x is really overrated since we need that bid to x and bid 4c to show a monster hand and some may abuse that concept over 3/4h from partner. I also think 4c showing clubs and spades is somewhat superior to a straight 4c and feel it is worth somewhere
between 4 and 5.
Thanks for the advice. In future I'll wait until I have 10 tricks in my own hand before I come in on this auction. The doubled undertricks are so much worse vulnerable, how silly of me to focus on the possibility of a vulnerable game, or even to fantasise that partner might choose a more favourable action such as 4
♠, 4
♦, 3NT, 3
♠ or pass over my double. In my dreams partner might be intelligent enough to work out that (3
♦)-dbl-3
♥-4
♣-4
♦ is available as choice of games to cater for me holding 3=3=1=6 or 4=2=1=6. Following your recommendation, it could be a couple of years before I do anything other than pass over a 3
♦ opening, but at least my partner won't be deceived into thinking that I hold a monster hand.