[inquiry]

This is (at least imho) an interesting position after trick two. You are playing "udca" carding here. Since this one involves visualization and different lines of play potentially, I placed it in the expert area. I might have presented this one many years ago in postings on the forum as a declarer problem.

To view the play to the first two tricks, press the NEXT button twice.

Answer the these two questions in the poll?
Is there any reasonable layout of the unseen hands were you can defeat 6NT? (if so, describe)

Assuming that there is such a layout that will defeat the contract, what do you return at trick 3? Assuming that there is not such a layout, what return makes it hardest on declarer and why?

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This post has been edited by inquiry: 2014-May-28, 07:41
Reason for edit: to highlight the NEXT button issue

[Fluffy]

Lets do the basics first,
Declarer is cold unless partner has a red queen, wich is rare because declarer got control over 4♦ with 15 HCP, but there is no other chance.
If declarer misses a queen, and has 3442, he only has 10 top tricks regardles of the red queen missing, and no squeeze operates, so he is doomed.

So we must assume declarer has 2443 with ♣AQ and ♦K, missing only a red queen.

Now, if declarer misses ♥Q he can play for the finesse or a major suit squeeze, it is a 50-50 guess, but we can make it 100% if we return a spade killing his entry to hand for the criss-cross squeeze:

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(note that East has too many cards, and on previous trick he will have to discard a spade or a heart, letting declarer make)

So playing a spade he can no longer guess to play for the squeeze as we break. However there is hardly any need to kill it, playing for the squeeze is overcomplicating matters, yes, he might count everything by pitching 4th diamond on third club and count the hand to see it is a 50-50 guess, but why would he overcomplicate the matters?

Now if partner has ♦Q he is squeezed no matter what. The best hope here is to return ♦J to hope that partner has ♦Q9x and we break the comunications, or that declarer missguesses the lie out. But this would obviously be very stupid if declarer is 3442, so this play should be dismished.

Partner is squeezed if he has ♦Q, but declarer needs to do a very precise timing to achieve it. On a spade return he must win ♠A, cash ♣K, cash ♠Q, and overtake ♥J with ♥Q to squeeze partner on the 4th heart. This requires declarer to pay attention to the heart spots partner could have, and if he has ♥1098 he will need to make a leap of faith and overtake ♥J when a diamond honnor could still be singleton.

All in all I think a spade return is best.

[gszes]

I felt the second part of the poll was sort of useless since there
is at least one reasonable layout opener has AJx Qxxx Kxxx AQ where
declarer can score 3spa 4hea 2 dia and 2 clu and as long as we do
not pitch any diamonds along the way declarer will have to give us
our setting trick eventually. This might make zero sense if the 3d
bid showed 5 diamonds but I am not privy to that information.

If declarer has 5 diamonds (and p has the heart Qxx and spade Jxxx)
declarer can always make the hand by skipping the heart finesse
and doing a Vienna coupe with the heart T in their hand and hoping
the long spades (if any are stuck with the heart Q) a lot more fun
than a simple finesse. We might play a low heart and maybe possibly
give declarer pause but in the end I think it is futile.

SOOOOOOOOOOOOO we are back to assuming declarer has 4d and p the
heart Qxx and spade Jxxx is there anything we can do??? assuming
declarer has 3 clubs and 4 diamonds they also have 2 hearts and
2 spades and only need 1 more trick as fluffy notes above we can
kill a criss cross squeeze by return a spade with that requiring p
hold the spade JT (it appears his set up gives declarer the spade J
but then declarer has 3c 4d 3s and 2h with no problem)

That means that since we have to guess we should go with the play that has
a real chance to set declarer and go with the spade return just make sure
to avoid the dia in case we have this set by force.

[Fluffy]

gszes click on next on the original diagram to see what partner plays at trick 2.

[gszes]

Fluffy, on 2014-May-28, 01:03, said:

gszes click on next on the original diagram to see what partner plays at trick 2.

ok sorry didn't bother (I have to quit assuming information from somewhat
vague original descriptions) but if you drop the (my suggested) spade J from
opener that still leaves them with 15 and p can still have JTxx I was giving south
as much as possible yet still making it impossible for declarer to make.

[gnasher]

Fluffy, on 2014-May-27, 13:31, said:

Now if partner has ♦Q he is squeezed no matter what. The best hope here is to return ♦J to hope that partner has ♦Q9x and we break the comunications

We're talking about declarer having Ax Qxxx Kxxx AQx and partner J10xxx xxx Q9x xx ? Even on a diamond return, declarer can make on a criss-cross.

[Fluffy]

If my memory is right, I seem to recall that when the hand was put as declarer problem, Ben advocated to play for the finesse, because an expert defender should break the squeeze returning a spade.