[eagles123]

In the club, slam bidding is really really bad and thus it's only worth bidding a grand slam when it's pretty much 100%, however i felt we should have got here on these cards. I've given our auction up to this point. my question is:

- how can we proceed from here so that grand is almost certain (i.e. i know it's already likely but that potential 4-1 Heart break is too risky for W (i.e. he doesn't know about HJ)

Should W make some other move over 6C apart from 6H or does E need to make the move??

---

Thanks in advance,

Eagles

ps for relevance, out of 15 tables, 11 were in game and 4 were in small slam, no-one reached the grand.

[Cyberyeti]

The simplest way is for E to Blackwood in spades, then bid 7N on finding the minor suit aces and ♠KQ.

Our auction:

1♥-1♠
2N(GF unbal)-3♣(semi forced)
3♥(stronger than immediate 3♥, really big hand)-3♠(not a cue at this stage, suggestion of place to play)
4N(KC ♠)-5♣(0/3)
5♦(Q?)-6♠(yes and absolutely nothing else)
7N

More awkward playing standard ish methods, I think I'd bid 3♠ over 3♥ anyway, partner can easily have something like AJ, AKJxxx, KQx, xx which is better in spades.

[wyman]

Can't west count 12 tricks without even setting up spades (as long as we don't lose a heart, which would be the case if: hearts are 3-2 or 4-1 and partner has the jack, or ...)? Should be an easy grand to bid.

[mikeh]

 Cyberyeti, on 2014-January-21, 10:46, said:

The simplest way is for E to Blackwood in spades, then bid 7N on finding the minor suit aces and ♠KQ.

Our auction:

1♥-1♠
2N(GF unbal)-3♣(semi forced)
3♥(stronger than immediate 3♥, really big hand)-3♠(not a cue at this stage, suggestion of place to play)
4N(KC ♠)-5♣(0/3)
5♦(Q?)-6♠(yes and absolutely nothing else)
7N

More awkward playing standard ish methods, I think I'd bid 3♠ over 3♥ anyway, partner can easily have something like AJ, AKJxxx, KQx, xx which is better in spades.

Not only are you providing an 'answer' that is of no use to anyone, since it depends on methods that aren't in use, but you have compounded the problem by suggesting that E use keycard when holding xx in a side suit.

How would your auction proceed if West were KJxxxx x QJx AJx?

Or KJxxxx x KQx AJx?

[ArtK78]

Before discussing bidding to the grand, you already mentioned a very good point: If you are already getting 85% of the matchpoints for getting to a small slam, why even consider the grand?

But since this is a learning exercise and not a lesson in how to win at the local club, I can suggest this standard auction:

1♥ - 1♠
3♣ - 3♠
4♥ - 4NT
5♣ - 5♦
?

Without any special gadgets, East has to jump-shift into clubs to create a game force. West knows that East's clubs may be fake, but just makes a descriptive rebid by bidding 3♠. East has already forced to game so he just rebids his hearts, which is nonforcing. West knows that there is a slam, so he bids RKCB in hearts (should be in hearts, as this is the suit that was last bid). East makes his response. Now West, knowing that the partnership has all of the keycards, asks for the ♥Q. Assuming that the trump queen inquiry promises that the partnership has all of the keycards (this is not true in all partnerships), East can now count 11 sure tricks - one spade, 6 hearts, a diamond and three clubs. From East's perspective, this gives West the two minor suit aces and nothing more. But West must have more for his committment to slam. The question is how much more? Unfortunately, there is no direct way for East to find out. Perhaps the best thing for him to do is just bid 6♣ to show the club K. West will have to decide if he is willing to bid the grand opposite a six card heart suit to at least the AKQ, knowing that he has a fallback position that the spades may run for 6 tricks.

An alternative would be for East to bid RKCB in spades over West's 3 spade bid. East will be able to account for West's two aces and the KQ of spades and will be able to count 13 tricks. The downside of bidding RKCB over West's 3♠ bid is that if West does not have all of these cards the partnership may wind up in spades instead of hearts or notrump, and that the 5 level may not be safe. For example, suppose West has QJTxxxx x xx Axx. The bidding would be the same through 3♠. But if East bids RKCB, the partnership will get too high.

So, this hand may be impossible to bid to the grand with certainty using standard methods with no special tools.

[eagles123]

 Cyberyeti, on 2014-January-21, 10:46, said:

The simplest way is for E to Blackwood in spades, then bid 7N on finding the minor suit aces and ♠KQ.

Our auction:

1♥-1♠
2N(GF unbal)-3♣(semi forced)
3♥(stronger than immediate 3♥, really big hand)-3♠(not a cue at this stage, suggestion of place to play)
4N(KC ♠)-5♣(0/3)
5♦(Q?)-6♠(yes and absolutely nothing else)
7N

More awkward playing standard ish methods, I think I'd bid 3♠ over 3♥ anyway, partner can easily have something like AJ, AKJxxx, KQx, xx which is better in spades.

Hi, I really don't get 3 ♠ as suggesting a place to play, what if it goes all pass??

[mikeh]

The first thing to observe is that East should not rebid 3♥. He has 19, and a pretty good 19 at that, and 3♥ is non-forcing. Precise strength limits will vary slightly amongst good players, but I don't think anyone would include this hand in that range.

This is an awkward hand, for that reason. The usual way of bidding it, absent specialized agreements, is to jumpshift into 3♣. The sequence 1♥ 1♠ 3♣ 4♣ 4♥ (and analogous sequences with opener rebidding 4♥) shows very good hearts and is an offer to play opposite even very short hearts, and this is necessary because 3♣ is 'suspect' even in old-fashioned standard American.

So:

1♥ 1♠
3♣ 3♠

Seems like the normal auction so far.

Opener's next action isn't clear. Ax in spades is pretty good support, but AKQJxx in hearts is a pretty good trump suit, and West hasn't promised the spades he actually has and we haven't shown the quality of our hearts.

I think I would bid 4♥ but I wouldn't say 4♠ was an error.

Over 4♥, West has a great hand. His partner jumpshifted, and he has 5 controls and a potential source of tricks.

I think keycard is ok at this stage. I often use kickback, but this would be an exception, since West has clearly biddable spades and hearts have not yet been agreed upon. So in my partnerships, even using kickback, this is a 4N call.

East shows 3 keys, which is huge for West given his spades.

West now asks for the Queen and East owns up to it and the club K via 6♣.

So far it may seem as if I have really just replicated the OP situation, but there is a subtle difference.

East has jumpshifted, promising a hand too good to rebid 3♥.

Furthermore, East has bid 4♥, suggesting we play in 4♥ even opposite shortness and weakness: West hasn't shown any strength beyond an initial 1♠ response. This isn't a strong inference but when coupled with the jumpshift I think it enough that West can see that grand will have good play.

The decision as to whether to bid grand depends on the form of scoring, the strength of the field, and one's expectations about one's own chances in the event.

At mps, in a decent field, you should definitely bid the grand. It is very difficult to construct a jumpshift hand, that rebids 4♥, where grand isn't at least 65% or so (68.5 for the 3-2 break minus the odd percent for weird breaks, like a ruff in spades on the opening lead), which makes the grand worth bidding. In a decent field virtually no-one misses the small.

At imps I'd always bid it. It will range from almost cold to at worst about 65%, so you can't stay out imo

Only at mps in a weak field is there any argument in favour of taking the small. One would have to conclude that significantly more people miss small than bid grand, and that would be an appallingly weak field. So long as the great majority of the field reaches at least small slam, you should bid a grand that is significantly above 50%, and this one is.

[mikeh]

 eagles123, on 2014-January-21, 11:22, said:

Hi, I really don't get 3 ♠ as suggesting a place to play, what if it goes all pass??

in standard methods, 3♥ was non-forcing, but all non-game bids by responder are forcing, so 3♠ is definitely not an offer to play 3♠

[Cyberyeti]

 mikeh, on 2014-January-21, 11:05, said:

Not only are you providing an 'answer' that is of no use to anyone, since it depends on methods that aren't in use, but you have compounded the problem by suggesting that E use keycard when holding xx in a side suit.

How would your auction proceed if West were KJxxxx x QJx AJx?

Or KJxxxx x KQx AJx?

Hands moving faster than brain, 4♣-4♦ missing from auction

TBF I gave my auction then addressed more standard methods.

and when I said "place to play" I meant denomination, of course 3♠ is forcing (in my auction where I said that, it was already GF at 2N).

[Zelandakh]

To know if you can do it in your methods from the point of 6♣, I think a key question here is precisely what that 6♣ bid means. Or, more particularly, what 5NT would have meant. I assume 5♥ = no ♥Q; 5♠ = ♥Q + ♠K. What I play here is 5NT = ♥Q + ♦K and then 6♣ denies the ♦K. That allows 6♦ to be a Last Train-style grand try asking for something extra. East looking at ♥J and ♣Q has an easy accept of that. But many play 6♦ as showing the ♦K and then 6♦ over 6♣ has to ask for ♦K. In that case I think you are stuffed over 6♣.

However, perhaps the real answer is 2 rounds earlier. After 4♠, West could show almost their entire hand with 5♠. That would be a grand try and so automatically show first round control of diamonds plus the spade suit - in Ken's style it would specifically show 2 of the top 3 but in context it is difficult to see what else it could be. After this I think East should have enough to cooperate.

In any case, well done on at least getting to the small slam and thereby being in the top 27% for the hand. It surely will not be long before you are in a class of your own.

[wank]

west can count 14 tricks over 6c.

and yes east is too strong for 3h.

[ArtK78]

 wank, on 2014-January-21, 12:19, said:

west can count 14 tricks over 6c.

and yes east is too strong for 3h.

No, West cannot count 14 tricks over 6♣. He does not know that the hearts are running, because all that he knows is that the heart fit is xx opposite AKQxxx. If hearts are 3-2, there are 12 tricks known to West - 3 spades, 6 hearts, a diamond and 2 clubs. The ♣Q gives you 13 tricks if the hearts run. The fact that East has the ♥J is unknown to West.

The additional possibility of the spades running may be enough to make the grand a good bet, however.

[wank]

 ArtK78, on 2014-January-21, 12:44, said:

No, West cannot count 14 tricks over 6♣. He does not know that the hearts are running, because all that he knows is that the heart fit is xx opposite AKQxxx. If hearts are 3-2, there are 12 tricks known to West - 3 spades, 6 hearts, a diamond and 2 clubs. The ♣Q gives you 13 tricks if the hearts run. The fact that East has the ♥J is unknown to West.

The additional possibility of the spades running may be enough to make the grand a good bet, however.

akqxxx opposite xx is 6 tricks, no?

plus ak of clubs
plus a of diamonds
plus 5 spades, allowing for a ruff.
total: 14

yes if they lead a diamond and p has the singleton a of s it might not be very good because of blockages, but that's rather pessimistic.

[eagles123]

Hi Wank, please read original post: clearly AKQxxx opposite xx is 6 tricks usually, but i'm talking about virtually certain slam...

[wank]

 eagles123, on 2014-January-21, 13:34, said:

Hi Wank, please read original post: clearly AKQxxx opposite xx is 6 tricks usually, but i'm talking about virtually certain slam...

i would say that if you're worrying about that, you worry too much. yes at club level, it's not worth the risk, but in a proper tournament noone will be in game. if everyone is in slam, good odds for a grand at matchpoints are anything over 50% (ok i'm simplifying matters by ignoring choice of strain).

if you want to improve, ignore what's required to win in club games and just try to bid the right contract.

but as an aside, jumps in GF situations by hands which have already shown their strength (hence no need for fast arrival) can often be used to show solid suits. You could therefore bid 1H-1s-3c-3d-4h

[ArtK78]

I worry about AKQxxx opposite xx being 6 tricks. It is a favorite, but by no means a certainty.

And, to bid a grand slam, especially in a field where bidding the small slam rates to be a good score, you need a near certainly.

[Cyberyeti]

 ArtK78, on 2014-January-21, 17:08, said:

I worry about AKQxxx opposite xx being 6 tricks. It is a favorite, but by no means a certainty.

And, to bid a grand slam, especially in a field where bidding the small slam rates to be a good score, you need a near certainly.

TBF this one is around 90% without J♥ because just one of the majors has to break, although you may not know that. That's why I like rebidding spades at some point to show 6.

[ArtK78]

 Cyberyeti, on 2014-January-21, 17:22, said:

TBF this one is around 90% without J♥ because just one of the majors has to break, although you may not know that. That's why I like rebidding spades at some point to show 6.

No doubt. But there is no way to know. If West does the asking, he knows that East has AKQxxx or better in hearts and the ♠A. But he does not know that East has the ♥J or a second spade. And if East does the asking he takes a significant risk that the 5 level will be too high.

So it is a problem. But it is not unreasonable for West to do the asking and bid the grand, as it should have pretty good play if it is not cold.

[Cyberyeti]

 ArtK78, on 2014-January-21, 17:45, said:

No doubt. But there is no way to know. If West does the asking, he knows that East has AKQxxx or better in hearts and the ♠A. But he does not know that East has the ♥J or a second spade. And if East does the asking he takes a significant risk that the 5 level will be too high.

So it is a problem. But it is not unreasonable for West to do the asking and bid the grand, as it should have pretty good play if it is not cold.

I can't see a cast iron route after 1♥-1♠-3♣, but if 1♥-1♠-3♥-3♠-4♣ is conclusively a cue (which I think it should be, you'd have bid 3♣ otherwise), then after 4♦ there is no problem with E asking and it's trivial as you can place W with KQxxxx/A/A.

[ArtK78]

 Cyberyeti, on 2014-January-21, 18:10, said:

I can't see a cast iron route after 1♥-1♠-3♣, but if 1♥-1♠-3♥-3♠-4♣ is conclusively a cue (which I think it should be, you'd have bid 3♣ otherwise), then after 4♦ there is no problem with E asking and it's trivial as you can place W with KQxxxx/A/A.

Except that 3♥ is not forcing, and West can't afford to make a nonforcing call on his cards.