[hautbois]

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Somewhat contrived to isolate the issue.

Contract is 6NT.

The lines of play I see are:
1) losing a diamond early cashing black winners before hearts, wins with 3-3 diamonds or hand with long diamonds having K♣
2) playing small to the Q♣, wins with K♣ with LHO
3) A♣ and a small ♣, wins with Kx♣ in either hand

The third line is a bit of desperation, but might be best on a club lead?

For the other two lines, what inferences from the lead or auction will sway you to take one over the other? (I know I haven't provided a specific auction.) Would the field matter in matchpoints?

If the north hand were QTx♣, how does that change your choice of play? (I think it makes line 2 the favorite on a diamond lead and inserting the T right on a club lead, but I don't know if it would change play on a major suit lead.)

[nige1]

hautbois, on 2013-July-17, 18:24, said:

Somewhat contrived to isolate the issue. Contract is 6NT. The lines of play I see are:
1) losing a diamond early cashing black winners before hearts, wins with 3-3 diamonds or hand with long diamonds having K♣
2) playing small to the Q♣, wins with K♣ with LHO
3) A♣ and a small ♣, wins with Kx♣ in either hand
The third line is a bit of desperation, but might be best on a club lead?
For the other two lines, what inferences from the lead or auction will sway you to take one over the other? (I know I haven't provided a specific auction.) Would the field matter in matchpoints?
If the north hand were QTx♣, how does that change your choice of play? (I think it makes line 2 the favorite on a diamond lead and inserting the T right on a club lead, but I don't know if it would change play on a major suit lead.)

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My guess ...

• When ♣K is singleton all lines are successful.
• Line 1 wins when the defender with ♣K has 3 or more ♦s.
• Line 2 seems slightly worse. It works when LHO has ♣K or either defender has 4+ ♦s and 5+ ♣s.
• But when dummy has ♣QTx, Line 2 seems better, working when LHO has ♣K or either defender has singleton or doubleton ♣J or 4+ ♦s and ♣J.

[JLOGIC]

It's a math problem but I'd be surprised if line 1 was not correct. I mean at the table my thought process would be something like 3-3 is like 36 %, and a little less than half of the other times, the squeeze will work (less because of empty spaces), so sounds like 65%ish. A club finesse is 50 % and I doubt 4+D and 5+C is 15 %.

Also, we can test one round of diamonds first to see if they're 6-0 so 65 % is probly too low. We could also try running 4 spades and seeing what they discard and making a decision that way (if LHO pitches an encouraging club quickly it's probably right to just take a club finesse). Of course with 4 solid hearts in dummy I assume they will just pitch heartslol.

[aguahombre]

Yeh, I think I will try line 1, without insulting the opponents

However, some might not notice they were being dissed.

[inquiry]

JLOGIC, on 2013-July-17, 21:15, said:

Also, we can test one round of diamonds first to see if they're 6-0 so 65 % is probly too low. We could also try running 4 spades and seeing what they discard and making a decision that way (if LHO pitches an encouraging club quickly it's probably right to just take a club finesse). Of course with 4 solid hearts in dummy I assume they will just pitch heartslol.

Cashing a diamond first is a bad idea. If West has four plus diamonds and the club king, he wins the diamond and returns the same suit. Now you can't execute the necessary Vienna coup as you entries are screwed up (the squeeze would still work if EAST is the hand with the minors). Don't duck a diamond, and the odds seem close to 64% which is just what you suggested,

[madongjun]

I think Line 1 is best,I would play that line.

[Fluffy]

Can't upvote Ben

The third desperate line in OP is wrong, If you were going to play for a the king to be doubleton (perhaps after a ♣J lead) it is much better to duck one all around (from hand better to induce a raise). Next you cash ♣A, and if it doesn't work yet, you have a nice minor suit squeeze to fallback.

[PhilKing]

Are we allowed to know what the opening lead is?

It may not matter to anyone else, but I'm a pedant about these things.

[JLOGIC]

inquiry, on 2013-July-17, 22:00, said:

Cashing a diamond first is a bad idea. If West has four plus diamonds and the club king, he wins the diamond and returns the same suit. Now you can't execute the necessary Vienna coup as you entries are screwed up (the squeeze would still work if EAST is the hand with the minors). Don't duck a diamond, and the odds seem close to 64% which is just what you suggested,

True that lol

[awm]

If dummy had QTx of club, you can lead a club up at trick two. If this loses you play for a minor suit squeeze. Seems like 50% (club finesse) plus 64% (diams not 3-3) times 25% (last club honor with the diams, and original club finesse failed) for a bit below 66%. Perhaps better than ducking a diamond. On the original hand I agree with Justin + Ben.

[gszes]

its just plain cooler to try for the 33 dia or vienna coupe LOP then
it is to lead up toward the club Q. I would chose this LOP even if
it was a slight underdog to leading up to the club Q. Here I have
the % on my side and I havent spent the last million years playing
this game in order to take a finesse sheesh.

[gnasher]

awm, on 2013-July-18, 09:03, said:

If dummy had QTx of club, you can lead a club up at trick two. If this loses you play for a minor suit squeeze. Seems like 50% (club finesse) plus 64% (diams not 3-3) times 25% (last club honor with the diams, and original club finesse failed) for a bit below 66%. Perhaps better than ducking a diamond.

Finding the other club honour doubleton adds a few percent. And you aren't giving yourself any credit for good guessing.

[gnasher]

On the original hand, doesn't it depend on the lead? On a heart lead the squeeze line doesn't work, because they can force us to cash our hearts before we've unblocked ♣A.