[akhare]

IMPs, all red, you open 1N (15-17) holding:

JXX KXX KQX AKJX

1N - (3♦) - X (GF, takeout)

It's your call.

[the hog]

3NT for me.

[yin970902]

3NT
why not?

[bluecalm]

3NT.
We don't have great defence. On a bad day they make it (7 diamonds tricks + AQ spades in dummy or something) and getting 800 seems far away. 3NT should be safe on the other hand, their diamond are useless in defense so it will be 11 tricks most of the time.

[gszes]

3n but i consider it close to pass. The main reason for choosing
3n is that I may be able to cut communications btn the two hands
by ducking the first dia lead it will all depend on what hits in dummy.

I am not overly concerned about them making 3d I am more concerned
about losing the vul game bonus. if I had KJx vs KQx I would pass.

[lalldonn]

3NT what am I missing?

[SteveMoe]

...what 7 tricks are we going to take to make passing worth while? While it's possible partner might be strong enough to give us 7 defensive tricks (1 in trumps and 6 outside?), I'm not sure it's likely - partner rates to be closer to 10 than 15 HCP and I have only 3 sure defensive tricks...I think the possibilities suggest we bid our game and forget defending.

[Phil]

lalldonn, on 2012-August-16, 11:02, said:

3NT what am I missing?

You might choose to take the money. If LHO has a surprise entry and partner has a stiff diamond, you could be in trouble.

OTOH, 3N seems kinds of obvious here and passing is a half-empty approach.

I wonder what Timo thinks?

edit: I'm outing Han from the poll results - please say why you are passing!

[Phil]

SteveMoe, on 2012-August-16, 17:45, said:

...what 7 tricks are we going to take to make passing worth while? While it's possible partner might be strong enough to give us 7 defensive tricks (1 in trumps and 6 outside?), I'm not sure it's likely - partner rates to be closer to 10 than 15 HCP and I have only 3 sure defensive tricks...I think the possibilities suggest we bid our game and forget defending.

Ahem, I'm not passing..., but

You don't need to be able to account for "7 tricks" to pass. All you need to do is to come up with a high enough frequency of 3N failing to swing the the decision to pass.

We aren't playing MPs.

[TimG]

I bid 3N because of the big spots.

[SteveMoe]

Phil, on 2012-August-16, 18:02, said:

Ahem, I'm not passing..., but

You don't need to be able to account for "7 tricks" to pass. All you need to do is to come up with a high enough frequency of 3N failing to swing the the decision to pass.

We aren't playing MPs.

Thanks Phil. Wasn't thinking deeply enough - I presumed partners double was based on values in the majors. Does seem that a side A and 3 diamonds with East can sink this one...unless pard holds the ♦10/J.

[rogerclee]

I dislike passing, it seems very wrong on average when partner has 5+ clubs, which looks fairly likely.

[MrAce]

Phil, on 2012-August-16, 18:00, said:

I wonder what Timo thinks?

You know the answer, don't you ? In a split second