[Fluffy]

RHO opens 1NT and it ends the auction

MPs, nobody vul


♠Q93
♥72
♦Q983
♣KQ52

[CSGibson]

Fluffy, on 2012-May-03, 15:28, said:

RHO opens 1NT and it ends the auction

MPs, nobody vul


♠Q93
♥72
♦Q983
♣KQ52

If I have methods like Smith available, I'm far more likely to lead passively, especially at matchpoints. Here I'm inclined to lead a heart as my passive lead, especially since they didn't push to a major suit fit. 2nd choice is the low systemic club.

[Phil]

♦3.

[bluecalm]

The problem with leading a heart is that partner has some pc and passed which means most hands with 6 hearts and many with 5 hearts are out for him (5-5's, 5-4's, maybe some good 5carders with 5-3-3-2 even). Same goes for spades but at least here we can hope to find 4 of them (still many hands with 4 spades are out, for example both majors and probably some others depending on what reopening X is).

Anyway, here is simulation results with all 6 card majors and 5M-4o removed (best lead trick wise out of 1000 hands):
3♠ - 588
7♥ - 715
8♦ - 719
3♦ - 707
K♣ - 601
2♣ - 553

Granted this is probably too aggressive pruning of partner's hand and some 5H-4m are still there but on the other hand diamond is more readable for partner which counts too.

Overall I think it's close with slight preference for D over H but I wouldn't criticize either.

[CSGibson]

bluecalm, on 2012-May-04, 01:49, said:

The problem with leading a heart is that partner has some pc and passed which means most hands with 6 hearts and many with 5 hearts are out for him

The problem with this analysis is that it assumes the point of leading a heart is to hit partner. I'm looking at the soft values in my hand, and the fact that I have both minors covered, and the fact that I don't have any 5 card suit to set up as a source of tricks, and am just trying not to pickle any of my holdings by leading away from my soft honors into the NT bidder.

Edit: By the way, I don't mean to say that I don't value what you did, especially with the sim. I find it really interesting that my 2nd choice, the club, rates to be the very worst lead, it gives definite food for thought.

[JLOGIC]

Diamonds and hearts are the only reasoable leads imo, I would lead a diamond personally, 2 small is just too hard on partner and the diamond spots are very good.

[gnasher]

CSGibson, on 2012-May-04, 13:21, said:

Edit: By the way, I don't mean to say that I don't value what you did, especially with the sim. I find it really interesting that my 2nd choice, the club, rates to be the very worst lead, it gives definite food for thought.

That may well be a consequence of using double-dummy analysis. For example, a double-dummy solver will always get it right with J9x opposite Axx, whereas a human will always go wrong.

Similarly, the double-dummy analysis will tend to overrate both red-suit leads, because they may save declarer a guess at single-dummy, but not at double-dummy.

[xcurt]

gnasher, on 2012-May-04, 16:47, said:

That may well be a consequence of using double-dummy analysis. For example, a double-dummy solver will always get it right with J9x opposite Axx, whereas a human will always go wrong.

Similarly, the double-dummy analysis will tend to overrate both red-suit leads, because they may save declarer a guess at single-dummy, but not at double-dummy.

On the other hand we're defending 1NT, and we have no idea what the trick target is, it could be anything from +2 to -2, so I don't think we can expect to defend perfectly after the opening lead. My instinct was to lead a diamond, because if we lead hearts and it's wrong, or even if it just blows an irrelevant tempo, we're going to be under pressure to pitch double dummy. If I lead a diamond and it's wrong, well, maybe I the third round of diamonds is immaterial or I was going to get squeezed out of it anyway on declarers putative heart winners. So I think we're going to get closer to the double-dummy number of tricks leading a diamond than any other lead.

[zasanya]

The most aggressive/ optimist lead is club.The most passive lead is heart .And the most effective lead is diamond . Strange isn't it?

[ulven]

http://viewsfromtheb...d-theories.html

[Fluffy]

I though chances of partner having 5 hearts were pretty small nobody vul at MPs.

The full hand looked something like:

---

Partner sadly played ♦J on first trick, but she is not an expert so no big worries for that.

[jogs]

Fluffy, on 2012-May-05, 03:58, said:

I though chances of partner having 5 hearts were pretty small nobody vul at MPs.

The full hand looked something like:

---

Partner sadly played ♦J on first trick, but she is not an expert so no big worries for that.

Found this from expert play.

--------♣ Q1093

♣ A84________♣ J2

--------♣ K765

♣3, ♣2, ♣5, ♣8.

Only an expert defender would allow the ♣8 to win the club trick.

[lowerline]

Fluffy, on 2012-May-05, 03:58, said:

I though chances of partner having 5 hearts were pretty small nobody vul at MPs.

The full hand looked something like:

---

Partner sadly played ♦J on first trick, but she is not an expert so no big worries for that.

I don't think it matters on this deal. EW always have +120 if they play it right, no?

Steven

[Fluffy]

lowerline, on 2012-May-07, 03:20, said:

I don't think it matters on this deal. EW always have +120 if they play it right, no?

Steven

double dummy they have 150 in the form of 2♠, 3♥, 3♦, 1♣ while you can only make 2♣, 2♠. This requires ♠J to be led and ducked, however on real life what hapened is that north didn´t find the club switch.

[Scoti]

It looks like I chose well with mid-diamond lead, if I understand the info from BLUECALM. But picking the best result, it bears explaining to look like more than taking a result peak, then voting. lol. To that end, let me also say, I would NOT have chosen the second best lead, being a heart. Simply because of discomfort with the Cohenistic idea many do follow, that my short suit is going to be my P's longsuit. I almost always prefer to lead against NT from either my long suit, or powersuit. Tho the latter is primarily a consideration vs 3NT, but not so much vs 1NT.

Anyway that tells why I avoided a H lead. Although I feel that ops would rate to be short on Majors, having not gone to them, and that leading mid-spade may make the Queen a winner ... just as likely they may win with a J!s and hold the A-K and then I've made my Q a loser.

I don't go with clubs because, 1)a four-card power suit vs 1NT isn't going to make a fast Set, 2)I WANT the RHO to win trick one if posssible without hurting us. (Because I feel it is going to be P's job to Set this contract if it is possible. Bidder leading trick 2 seems to make optimum situation that ops are not leading to their stronger hand, and are leading to my P having final say so for the trick. Also, If P happens to win trick one, he can lead to dummy weaknesses and being #3 I get to preserve strength of hand if my RHO happens to have a winner in trick 2. And 3) by leading from my strongest suit here, it decreases the chance that ops ever return to it. Additionally, winning in that suit does not tell me ops dont have that Ace.

And so I go with mid-diamond lead. Not 4th down as I have a prejudice vs leading 4th down in NT. And here P might have to use much more force than needed if he must try to win the lead trick while sitting in front of the op with all the hcp. Going with mid !d may make my Q good after one trick. Yet if not, and a Jack wins, the Queen is not certain of being wasted, as were the case for Spade Q. And as a generality vs NT, I lead from length, hoping to return lead to me later with by a winner in my strong suit. (You could say that is the basis of my NT defense. When possible, I generally play for that. An exception is when my Strong suit is just TOO strong so that they would obviously never lead back to it. Like if I held the Ace Clubs here as well. Then I must lead top of clubs. And hoping to make a 4th trick in the suit as well.)

My 2nd choice, well lead the Other Mid !d card! lol. Ok thats hedging things a bit. So let me say, the low !D.

Here's where it proves I didnt Peek ... my next choice was Clubs. King. Not the hotest. But leading from a suit of 2 like H is just too Anti-philosophy and risk seeming to me, even here where I expect ops are not holding 8 hearts. Anyway that is how I viewed it. Tho much faster since it was a largely a philosophical choice for me.

[jdeegan]

Just looking at the question, I think the opponents are a favorite to make 1NT based on a likely split of the remaining 15 or so HCP. I would try the ♥ seven as a passive lead. At IMP's it's a whole different story.

[dake50]

D8 (or D9) is better than D3 on this best-guess opening lead.
At least it doesn't surrender a spot loser.
Keeps us in the hunt for not losing a trick.
Not much for setting this, just don't lose overs.

[akhare]

I would choose a ♥, but can symphatize with a ♦ lead...