[Cyberyeti]

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At most tables this will be bid 2N-3N

3♣ (4th, 2nd from bad suits) is led to the 10 and A, plan the play at a) IMPS b) MPs (vul is EW)

This is another hard luck story from the national pairs, out opps were able to show this via a strong club auction as 18-20 and played 1N+1 for nearly 90% of the matchpoints. 3N can be made unless the defence is really hot, but not sure whether you should make it.

[rhm]

If you believe the lead, it is from queen fourth.
I expect a ♣ will come back at trick 2.

You will certainly not make the contract when West has the ♠K, because you will always loose 3♣s, the ♠K and the ♦A
So East will have to hold the ♠K and you might as well give him the ♦A to improve your chances, not only in ♦s, but also to avoid a third ♣ trick for the defense by ducking the ♣ return to the queen.
The chances for that are bleak, however, unless South was dealer.

Unfortunately this neither tells us the location of the ♠T, nor how the majors break.
I do not know what is best, but I see some scope for artistry. I suggest the following line of play:

If South was dealer:

I expect to get in with the ♣K at trick 3.
I would cash the top 2 ♥ honors from hand.
If the ♥J drops, finesse West for the ♠T.
Even if this finesse looses, assuming my assumptions are correct, I will get 3♠ tricks with the help of the spade finesse against the ♠king , 4♥ tricks and one trick in each minor.
Assuming no ♥J appears, I would put my faith in the ♠ suit and start playing ♠s from the top.
Hopefully East has ♠Kxx, in which case he will either have to give me a second entry to dummy or will be end-played on the third round.
He will have to return a ♦ and after I cash my fourth ♠, I will have to decide in the 3 card ending, whether East came down to a singleton ♦A, protecting his ♥s, in which case I end-play him with another ♦, or whether ♥s broke all the time or to finesse against the ♥J.
At least I will know how the ♣ and ♠ were distributed before making a decision.

If East has passed in front of South I would give the ♦A to West:

To make the contract now you must assume West to have the ♠T and you need 4♥ tricks.
If West has ♠Tx anybody can make the contract by running the ♠J. So let's assume ♠ are 3-3.
Win the ♣K at trick 3.
Play 4 rounds of ♥s, discarding a ♠ and neither East nor West can afford to discard a ♠.
If West discards his ♣ you can afford to give up a ♠.
More likely West will keep his high ♣ and he will have to come down to Ax in ♦ in the six card ending.
Play a ♠ to the ♠Q and exit with a ♦ honor to West. West can not afford to duck, since you would continue with a small ♦.
If West cashes his last ♣, East will be squeezed between ♠s and ♦s.
If West does not cash his ♣, but exits with his last ♦, East gets thrown in with a third ♦ to lead away from his ♠K.

Rainer Herrmann

[WellSpyder]

rhm, on 2012-March-22, 11:09, said:

If you believe the lead, it is from queen fourth.
I expect a ♣ will come back at trick 2.

It's curious we weren't told about trick 2, though, isn't it? Are we expected to unblock ♣K at T1 in order to create another entry to dummy? The disadvantage of this is that the defence can duck ♣Q to maintain communication, but maybe that won't matter if all we lose is ♦A and 3 clubs.

[Cyberyeti]

WellSpyder, on 2012-March-22, 11:14, said:

It's curious we weren't told about trick 2, though, isn't it? Are we expected to unblock ♣K at T1 in order to create another entry to dummy? The disadvantage of this is that the defence can duck ♣Q to maintain communication, but maybe that won't matter if all we lose is ♦A and 3 clubs.

I wanted to leave this as a possibility, because I believe it is a situation that a lot of players wouldn't even see, I don't know whether it's the right thing to do or not, and this was part of the debate I wanted to stimulate.

Say you divest yourself of K♣, and trick 2 is 9♣-> J, then trick 3 is J♠-K-A-3, now what ?

Btw, S dealt, there was no pass first.

[han]

The line that looks most appealing to me is after the first three tricks that you have posted (drop club king, spade jack to king and ace) is to cash the ace-queen of hearts and exit with a club. If west has 2 hearts he'll have to lead a spade or diamond.

I'll pitch a spade on the 4th club.

[Cyberyeti]

han, on 2012-March-22, 14:34, said:

The line that looks most appealing to me is after the first three tricks that you have posted (drop club king, spade jack to king and ace) is to cash the ace-queen of hearts and exit with a club. If west has 2 hearts he'll have to lead a spade or diamond.

I'll pitch a spade on the 4th club.

I hadn't even considered that as a line, you're assuming E doesn't have ♣A98. But doesn't it leave you little chance anyway, say W returns a diamond to the 8 and Q. If you cross with the heart to take the spade hook then lead a diamond towards your K, E has a heart to cash as well as the A♦ to go with 3 clubs for -1.

[rhm]

Cyberyeti, on 2012-March-22, 12:59, said:

Say you divest yourself of K♣, and trick 2 is 9♣-> J, then trick 3 is J♠-K-A-3, now what ?

Btw, S dealt, there was no pass first.

After having spent some time on this frustrating deal I conclude: There is no good solution.

There are numerous ways of playing the hand. I see at least half a dozen.
All of them winning against some layouts and losing against others.
Evaluating which one of them has the best chance of success would require hours of computation and sometimes depend on the skill of the defenders.

It all depends how the majors are breaking, who has the ♠T and who has the ♦A and whether the ♥J will drop.
I am not convinced that creating an additional entry to dummy is really helpful here and compensates for the communication you give the defenders in the club suit.
Also if West has the diamond ace the unblock of the ♣K may induce a good East to switch to diamonds. This switch now looks attractive.
You are then reduced to playing for 4 heart tricks and East for the doubleton ten of spades.

If I unblocked the club king I would do that only if I assumed the diamond ace to be with East.
In this case I certainly lead a diamond, not a spade from dummy. The spades can wait.
Assuming the diamond is won in hand, I then would cash the 2 top hearts from hand and exit in clubs.
If West cashes his fourth club I discard a diamond from dummy and a spade from hand.
East is likely to come under pressure now and has no good discard.

Rainer Herrmann

[Cyberyeti]

rhm, on 2012-March-23, 04:12, said:

After having spent some time on this frustrating deal I conclude: There is no good solution.

There are numerous ways of playing the hand. I see at least half a dozen.
All of them winning against some layouts and losing against others.
Evaluating which one of them has the best chance of success would require hours of computation and sometimes depend on the skill of the defenders.

It all depends how the majors are breaking, who has the ♠T and who has the ♦A and whether the ♥J will drop.
I am not convinced that creating an additional entry to dummy is really helpful here and compensates for the communication you give the defenders in the club suit.
Also if West has the diamond ace the unblock of the ♣K may induce a good East to switch to diamonds. This switch now looks attractive.
You are then reduced to playing for 4 heart tricks and East for the doubleton ten of spades.

If I unblocked the club king I would do that only if I assumed the diamond ace to be with East.
In this case I certainly lead a diamond, not a spade from dummy. The spades can wait.
Assuming the diamond is won in hand, I then would cash the 2 top hearts from hand and exit in clubs.
If West cashes his fourth club I discard a diamond from dummy and a spade from hand.
East is likely to come under pressure now and has no good discard.

Rainer Herrmann

This is a very thorough analysis and sums up more or less what I felt subjectively.

The actual EW hands are:

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My view was that if you dispose of K♣ and survive getting a club return rather than a diamond, you are looking at 3 hearts, a diamond a club and 2 spades, so you will need to get 2 more tricks out of the 4th heart, another diamond and one or two more in spades.

After the first 3 tricks I gave earlier.

We cash the A♥ and if you get a true 9 from W, this is quite revealing, and he may well give you a true card as if he plays the 2, E might assume he has 3 and declarer AQ tight so E can afford to discard one from Jxxx.

I think most of the time W will be 3244 now (he might well have led a spade if he had 4), so if the 10♠ is onside, that will generate both the 2 extra required tricks. So small heart to dummy without cashing the Q just in case E has ♦A and run the 9♠, if E covers, back to the 8, diamond and you'll get to hand to cash the 4th spade.

Not sure how plausible this is, but I think only one declarer actually made it.