[mycroft]

So South has ♦J-7th and out, and no more than 4, to be generous, clubs. North has 7 clubs at least, a diamond void, and what, 3-3 in the majors? Does North have a way to get out in his suit, or does he have to settle for -1400?

Realistically, West will actually have some clubs. Maybe not enough to be willing to pass, but I won't play for the 4x1 David has posted. Having said that, I probably wouldn't pass with the East hand either.

[richlp]

bluejak, on 2012-March-24, 15:04, said:

Clear? Are you sure?

Ok, I shall ask you a bidding query.

---

What do you bid? Remember that your partner has shown nothing in clubs, possibly a singleton in a 4441 hand.

If you pass, partner will have

---

and while 6♥ is on ice, you are not going to score very well here.

For it to be "clear" to pass 3♣ doubled I reckon a poll shoud be getting 90+% of players to pass, and opposite a double which is not penalties I do not believe it. For one thing, I certainly would not pass, so there's one vote for not passing.

You may mark it as "Why I lose at bridge" if you wish. If I have information that North has a tolerance for clubs, or that there is no agreement about the pass of the double, I would be very surprised to find myself playing 3C doubled. South presumably had a bid available to show a minor 2 suiter and would, I think, be loathe to play 3CX absent an agreement that it showed clubs. To my mind, I would completely discount the 11 card club fit you are postulating.

[bluejak]

That's ok, I was only postulating a worst case scenario, and in my experience ignoring worst case scenarios can be very costly. But a better approach is a poll so I have introduced one [with a deliberate error now fixed ].

[TimG]

Zelandakh, on 2012-March-26, 02:00, said:

Let me ask you a return question. What is the difference in our bidding agreements between:

P - P - 1♣ - 3♣
X - P - 3♥

and

P - P - 1♣ - 3♣
X - P - P - 3♦
P - P - 3♥;

One obvious difference is that if you pass, you might find yourself unable to bid 3♥ on the next round, while if you bid a direct 3♥ you know you'll get to bid 3♥.

[Zelandakh]

TimG, on 2012-March-27, 10:22, said:

One obvious difference is that if you pass, you might find yourself unable to bid 3♥ on the next round, while if you bid a direct 3♥ you know you'll get to bid 3♥.

Hence the part of my post which you snipped:-

Zelandakh, on 2012-March-26, 02:00, said:

P - P - 1♣ - 3♣
X - P - P - 3♦
P - 4♦ - 4♥

It would, for example, not be impossible to play an immediate 3M to show a one-suited hand and for pass follwed by bidding the major to show tolerance for the other major. Until we know what our agreements are then how can we possibly give a sensible answer to what the best course of action is? I actually thought it was standard to include the methods used in poll questions - is this incorrect?

[Trinidad]

I am changing my mind. I find Zel's argument pretty convincing. East does not need to bid 3♥ now. He expects to get another chance to show his hand if he passes.

So, it depends on the EW agreements whether East passes. If EW have an agreement about the difference between a direct 3♥ and a slow 3♥ (or 4♥), we follow that agreement. If EW don't have an agreement, I would say that East would tend to bid his hearts immediately. In that case, I would assign a weighted AS, based for 60% on a 3♥ bid and for 40% on a pass.

Rik

[bluejak]

As you will realise I have taken a poll. At the time of writing, 37.5% passed. I think this is evidence that a weighted score involving opener passing may be very reasonable, but a ruling assuming he passes 100% of the time is not.

[lamford]

gnasher, on 2012-March-17, 09:49, said:

I agree with adjusting to 3♣x by South.

I think the analysis of the play in 3Cx is excellent but it looks like a case of "Sentence first - verdict afterwards". If East would Pass 3Cx you would be right, but East knows South has diamonds, and partner is 5-7, balancedish (is that a word?) with whatever hand pattern he was dealt. Pass must surely be a suggestion to defend, even by my limited knowledge of Precision. A simulation had an average penalty of +317 and an average score when declarer is in the best contract of +592, even at love all. So, the statement by East that he would pass seems to be influenced by the West hand. As Dburn once said, "I would not pass on the East hand even if I had seen the hand record, as, if I did, people would know I had seen the hand record."

So the AC did an excellent job, and the TD decision was hopeless, in my opinion.

[Trinidad]

Did you read Zel's analysis about why East could/would pass (post #20) with the correct information?

Rik

[Vampyr]

wrong login

[lamford]

Trinidad, on 2012-March-29, 11:43, said:

Did you read Zel's analysis about why East could/would pass (post #20) with the correct information?

Rik

Yes, but I did not agree with it. The other worry is that South might have misbid (or even psyched) with 3C, intending it as weak, when he will pass and we will get no redress. Pass must surely suggest defending (now or later) and therefore suggests a more balanced hand.