[daveharty]

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West leads the ♣J; low, low, Q. When you cash a high trump, both opps follow low. What's the best matchpoint plan?

[wyman]

I know I'm going to regret this line once I commit to it, but I'm gonna play LHO for J10x(x) and play 3 rounds of clubs pitching a diamond and then run the H10, preserving the high spade as an entry to finesse again in hearts. I hope for 11 tricks this way.

If LHO ruffs the 3rd round of clubs, I'll be unhappy, but I'll overruff and exit a diamond toward hand. I think lefty should win this and exit a trump, but there's an off chance that the DAK are onside, as well as a chance that he won't exit a trump.

If all attempts at 11 fail, I have plenty of chances still for 10, which I expect will still net some portion of the MPs.

[wyman]

Blah, now looking at the holdings from which LHO would lead the J [I'm counting J, Jx, J10x, J10xx, J10xxx, J10xxxx], it looks like 15 are winning and 22 are losing, so if all are equally likely (they are not), I should just draw the other trump, heart to the ace, draw trump, club club pitching a diamond, and lob toward the ♥Q for a 50/50 shot at 11 and a guaranteed 10.

But I think things like Jx increase the likelihood that LHO leads from a more robust holding in a red suit. I'm not sure how to weight these holdings.

[MrAce]

There is a case for cashing 2nd ♠ and overtaking from dummy if LHO follows. If 3-2 ♠ we will be in good position. Clear trumps and play ♦ from dummy. If RHO wins this we are cold for 11 tricks, if LHO wins and they cash another ♦ we are still cold for 11 trix. If LHO plays a ♥ we go up with Ace and either

a- discard ♦ on 3rd ♣ and play a ♥ towards dummy and try to guess for 11th trick

b- Cash all remaining trumps and try for something to happen.

I would play the line A i guess.

[wyman]

MrAce, on 2012-February-24, 22:17, said:

There is a case for cashing 2nd ♠ and overtaking from dummy if LHO follows. If 3-2 ♠ we will be in good position. Clear trumps and play ♦ from dummy. If RHO wins this we are cold for 11 tricks, if LHO wins and they cash another ♦ we are still cold for 11 trix. If LHO plays a ♥ we go up with Ace and either

a- discard ♦ on 3rd ♣ and play a ♥ towards dummy and try to guess for 11th trick

b- Cash all remaining trumps and try for something to happen.

I would play the line A i guess.

Are you cold for 11 if RHO wins the first diamond and leads a club? You have entry problems. Seems like your line (w optimal defense) is always going to come down to playing for the HK onside. But maybe I'm missing something? Same problem if LHO wins the first diamond (not unlikely) and leads a club (not unlikely).

[gnasher]

wyman, on 2012-February-24, 13:26, said:

Blah, now looking at the holdings from which LHO would lead the J [I'm counting J, Jx, J10x, J10xx, J10xxx, J10xxxx], it looks like 15 are winning and 22 are losing, so if all are equally likely (they are not), I should just draw the other trump, heart to the ace, draw trump, club club pitching a diamond, and lob toward the ♥Q for a 50/50 shot at 11 and a guaranteed 10.

But I think things like Jx increase the likelihood that LHO leads from a more robust holding in a red suit. I'm not sure how to weight these holdings.

I think it's very unlikely that LHO has led from Jx. With a strong notrump on the right and a one-suiter on the left, that's a very unappealing lead.

If we discount Jx and assume that they'd always lead a club from the other holdings, that makes it about 50:50 whether the clubs will stand up.

[MrAce]

wyman, on 2012-February-25, 10:39, said:

Are you cold for 11 if RHO wins the first diamond and leads a club?

You are correct, i am not cold, i missed the fact that lead was ♣.

EDIT : In this case i wld take the 2nd ♣ cash 3rd one and discard a ♥ and ruff 4th ♣ and play 2nd ♦, now i am cold for 11 if rho takes it and i am on ♥ finesse if lho takes it (he has to play heart) Of course if everyone followed 3rd ♣, if not i wld discard a ♦ instead and hope for ♥ finesse

[JLOGIC]

I run good so I'd cash 3 clubs pitching a diamond and then lead a heart to the 9, then spade to the queen, heart to the queen.

[wyman]

bump for results [and yes, i know it's irrelevant, but still...]

[daveharty]

wyman, on 2012-March-08, 08:31, said:

bump for results [and yes, i know it's irrelevant, but still...]

Sorry Brian, didn't mean to leave you hanging! The full hand:

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At the table my thinking was similar to MrAce's; when West followed to the second spade I overtook in dummy, and now ten tricks was the limit.