[AAr]

In this holding, what is the percentage play to:

A: Win the first trick (Say, you don't have to run the suit for zero losers, but you must win the first trick in the suit to make the bid. If the opponents win the first trick, you're down.

B: If possible, run the suit for zero losers.

Dummy: QJxx.
Hand: K10xxx.

Thanks!

[inquiry]

AAr, on 2012-February-18, 14:50, said:

In this holding, what is the percentage play to:

A: Win the first trick (Say, you don't have to run the suit for zero losers, but you must win the first trick in the suit to make the bid. If the opponents win the first trick, you're down.

B: If possible, run the suit for zero losers.

Dummy: QJxx.
Hand: K10xxx.

Thanks!

Don't think I CAN, BUT IF I can have them make the ace an exposed card and force them to play it on someother suit before I play this one? OTHERWISE chance of zero losers is, well, zero.

[ahydra]

To win the first trick - it depends on the bidding, the contract, etc. For example, if you lead a small from hand towards dummy LHO may not want to play his Ace on nothing (and both players might hold up to deny entries if they don't know you have 4 of them).

But the second question makes no sense. How exactly can I run a suit, missing the Ace, for zero losers? Rely on opponents dropping the Ace under the table?

ahydra

[AyunuS]

A: It all depends on your opponents. If they choose, they can take the first trick, but some players will choose not to if you do it the right way, but there is no way to get a guarantee. Try to lead so that the opponent that has shown more strength from the bidding has to go second, and lead a low card. Hope that he has the A and doesn't play it, and then you take the trick. You could also try to get them to lead the suit and hope they don't use the A, but that's not very likely to work, either. In any case, there is no percentage anyone can give you for this.

B: It can't be done unless they drop the A offsuit. This is nearly impossible unless they somehow really get tricked into thinking they need to guard another suit or something like that, or get squeezed really bad, but that's also almost impossible from other suits when you have this big 9-card suit.

[daveharty]

AAr, on 2012-February-18, 14:50, said:

B: If possible, run the suit for zero losers.

You might try something like the "Wrigley's Coup" which I believe was once used against Ely Culbertson. Lead low toward the QJxx; if the trick holds, return to your hand in a side suit and lead a gum wrapper. You might catch LHO napping.