[Cascade]

---

Lead ♥ 6

3♥ was described as "loose could be a six-card suit".

How do you play?

[Hanoi5]

Is expecting diamonds to be 4-2 that bad???

[quiddity]

One possible line is to play for ♦QJ onside: unblock spades, ruff heart high, draw trump, diamond to the ten.
That's something like 47% if hearts are 1=7 (likely) and if I did the math correctly (unlikely).

[quiddity]

oops, i totally misread this. never mind..

Can we calculate this just based on open spaces - the chance of hearts 6-2 is the chance that West has the H4 given 12 empty spaces opposite 7?

It seems really close, since going for a diamond ruff may fail if West can discard his heart on the third round of diamonds. Maybe if I have time later I'll make a real attempt at doing the math.

[han]

I'd start by playing a low heart. Which heart does RHO play?

[Cascade]

 han, on 2012-February-02, 04:15, said:

I'd start by playing a low heart. Which heart does RHO play?

Damn I can't remember. Not the four.

[phil_20686]

You could also just win the heart K draw one round of trumps and play ace and another club. Later cross in spades and cash a heart and a club to pirch two diamonds. As long as rho has 7 hearts ate least two clubs and two or fewer spades you should be fine. Its 100% if rho has a singleton spade which is not unlikely. If RHo has eight hearts you dont really have that much play except to play lho for QJxx diamonds and strip his major suit cards and play a diamond up to the T.

[gnasher]

 phil_20686, on 2012-February-02, 05:44, said:

You could also just win the heart K draw one round of trumps and play ace and another club. Later cross in spades and cash a heart and a club to pirch two diamonds. As long as rho has 7 hearts ate least two clubs and two or fewer spades you should be fine. Its 100% if rho has a singleton spade which is not unlikely. If RHo has eight hearts you dont really have that much play except to play lho for QJxx diamonds and strip his major suit cards and play a diamond up to the T.

I think you mean "6 hearts" and "7 hearts" respectively.

A variation on this is to lead a low club away from the ace, then unblock ♣A, cash two trumps, and try to cash two clubs. That works when RHO is 2-2 or 2-3 in the blacks.

[phil_20686]

Thanks gnasher i did count the hearts wrong :S

A third variation is to win the heart K draw trumps and exit with club to the ace and a club up. If LHO has QJxx diamonds and the club K he must concede tricks to you.

[gnasher]

 phil_20686, on 2012-February-02, 08:30, said:

A third variation is to win the heart K draw trumps and exit with club to the ace and a club up. If LHO has QJxx diamonds and the club K he must concede tricks to you.

That's worse than quiddity's line, which just needs LHO to have the diamond honours.

[whereagles]

My feeling tells me to do something stupid like playing ace of clubs and a club up LOL.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

 gnasher, on 2012-February-02, 08:40, said:

That's worse than quiddity's line, which just needs LHO to have the diamond honours.

After much agonizing thought, I too think quiddity's line is best.

[phil_20686]

 gnasher, on 2012-February-02, 08:40, said:

That's worse than quiddity's line, which just needs LHO to have the diamond honours.

Yes, it was more stream of consciousness than anything else. Nothing stands out beyond some variation of putting lho on lead in a minor. There are other lines, like playing for rho to have two diamonds and the club K. In that case You are cold if you cash spades and two top diamonds and exit ace of clubs and a club. he must exit a rounded suit and you get two diamonds away. I mean, is rho the kind who would not open QJTxxxx without an extra card? If you ruff a heart high early you can confirm, if he has six hearts he is probably 100% to have the club K or serious side suit shape. Then you might try this line, hoping rho 6-4 1624 or so.

[inquiry]

I don't know, several lines suggest themselves, like:

• the lazy man, cash two spades then heart ace. This works if west has a doubleton in either major
• pull trumps, cash diamond ace and play a diamond (ducking if west plays low). This works if east is 2-6-2-3; 2-7-2-2. 1-7-2-3, etc with one diamond honor and the club king
• play spade to king, led club queen and hope east covers with the king, if not but the queen wins, cash club ace, enter dummy with trump, ruff a club (hoping to drop the king), now combine chances for 3-3 diamonds with endplay chances. Here you will have black suit count on east so can try to figure out how best to play diamonds (endplay east when he holds Hx of diamonds if he refuses to unblock, for example, or endplay west if it looks like he has five diamonds from the play in the other suits, by exiting low diamond.

I am worried about line 1,
line 2 requires east to have club king and precisely two diamonds to a high honor
so I will go with line 3.

[quiddity]

 gnasher, on 2012-February-02, 06:37, said:

A variation on this is to lead a low club away from the ace, then unblock ♣A, cash two trumps, and try to cash two clubs. That works when RHO is 2-2 or 2-3 in the blacks.

I like this line. But what do you do if the first club wins? I guess you have to try two spades and the heart ace; going after a diamond ruff runs the risk of RHO discarding his club on the third diamond. So there's a further requirement that LHO has a doubleton in either major. The line doesn't work when RHO has three spades (since LHO then wins the king on the first round) so hearts have to be 6=2.

edit - no, you can just cash the club ace and then go after the diamond ruff.

[quiddity]

 inquiry, on 2012-February-02, 10:46, said:

I don't know, several lines suggest themselves, like:

• the lazy man, cash two spades then heart ace. This works if west has a doubleton in either major
• pull trumps, cash diamond ace and play a diamond (ducking if west plays low). This works if east is 2-6-2-3; 2-7-2-2. 1-7-2-3, etc with one diamond honor and the club king
• play spade to king, led club queen and hope east covers with the king, if not but the queen wins, cash club ace, enter dummy with trump, ruff a club (hoping to drop the king), now combine chances for 3-3 diamonds with endplay chances. Here you will have black suit count on east so can try to figure out how best to play diamonds (endplay east when he holds Hx of diamonds if he refuses to unblock, for example, or endplay west if it looks like he has five diamonds from the play in the other suits, by exiting low diamond.

I am worried about line 1,
line 2 requires east to have club king and precisely two diamonds to a high honor
so I will go with line 3.

I don't understand these lines.
line 1: you need to shed two losers. How are you getting rid of the second one?
line 3: what if LHO wins the club king and returns a spade? Doesn't this just revert to line 1?

[Cascade]

 phil_20686, on 2012-February-02, 08:30, said:

Thanks gnasher i did count the hearts wrong :S

A third variation is to win the heart K draw trumps and exit with club to the ace and a club up. If LHO has QJxx diamonds and the club K he must concede tricks to you.

 gnasher, on 2012-February-02, 08:40, said:

That's worse than quiddity's line, which just needs LHO to have the diamond honours.

Worse in the sense it doesn't work.

LHO exits ♦Q and you have a second sure loser.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Re: quiddity's line ( post # 3 ):

 Cascade, on 2012-February-02, 12:42, said:

Worse in the sense it doesn't work.

LHO exits ♦Q and you have a second sure loser.

Am I reading something wrong? .... or are you ?
What is the 2nd loser?
Exiting with ♦Q sets up the ♦10 as a dummy entry to pitch the losing ♣ on the ♥ Ace .

[wyman]

 TWO4BRIDGE, on 2012-February-02, 13:20, said:

Re: quiddity's line ( post # 3 ):



Am I reading something wrong? .... or are you ?
What is the 2nd loser?
Exiting with ♦Q sets up the ♦10 as a dummy entry to pitch the losing ♣ on the ♥ Ace .

??

When west wins the CK and exits the DQ, he retains the DJ.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

 wyman, on 2012-February-02, 13:22, said:

??

When west wins the CK and exits the DQ, he retains the DJ.

quiddity's line does NOT touch ♣... and after drawing trumps, his FIRST ♦ lead is low toward the 10 .