[benlessard]

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Great article from Kit Corner, i was posting a reply but their site is down now.

1D is 11-13 bal or 11-15.

[whereagles]

Trump. I think they'll have trouble making this with our side controling the side suits.

[phil_20686]

My instinct is a heart, but I see a case for the diamond ace and a low club and a trump.

I basically folllow forquets dictum of "What do you mean, why did lead that? I look, I pick I play, then I see what is happening". Which I assume means you just pick a card by instinct when your leading. Its too complicated for thnking about it for a long time to actually improve things. One tends to just fixate on unlikely layouts. Its different if the auction is very revealing.

[billw55]

Ops have bid game freely with at most 23 hcp, and likely only 21-22. Also there is no evidence of a strong side suit. All this suggests that they have ruffing values, especially dummy. So I guess I try a trump. On a lucky day partner has the ace and plays another. On an unlucky day we just solved a two-way finesse for declarer, but in that case he might have played partner for it anyway based on the opening bid.

[han]

Never a diamond. RHO has a stopper and if it is the king we need partner to lead diamonds. Dummy can also easily have a doubleton, that would be behind us.

Never a heart. This risks giving away tricks without much upside.

A club is certainly possible. We may need to take, or set up, tricks here before they go away on the hearts. The 10 makes it relatively safe.

A trump is also possible but they are in what sounds like a 4-4 fit with trumps splitting 3-2. It is not clear that we need to prevent a second ruff.

I would lead a club.

[phil_20686]

han, on 2012-January-31, 07:43, said:

Never a diamond. RHO has a stopper and if it is the king we need partner to lead diamonds. Dummy can also easily have a doubleton, that would be behind us.

Never a heart. This risks giving away tricks without much upside.

A club is certainly possible. We may need to take, or set up, tricks here before they go away on the hearts. The 10 makes it relatively safe.

A trump is also possible but they are in what sounds like a 4-4 fit with trumps splitting 3-2. It is not clear that we need to prevent a second ruff.

I would lead a club.

I think you are much to harsh on a diamond. A diamond lead, when its right, probably needs to happen immediately, on the other hand clubs or spades or hearts, if we dont lead them now there is a good chance our tricks are not going anywhere opposite two balanced hands. Obviously the downside is that we might give up a diamond trick. But in practice there are a million layouts where ace of diamonds doesnt cost, and partner can be finessed deep enough for all the remaining honours anyway.

While a heart has risks, all leads have risks. Not least among them not leading another suit when its right! I think its hard to forsee what will happen, but I chose a heart because it seems the most passive. Most likely declarer can pick up remaining heart honours anway since partner has opened the bidding.

[benlessard]

BW is still down --I was really wrong on this one because i thought the A of D was clearcut. North bid 4S without inviting despite being short in HCP so it suggest, hes a stiff or both M (45,55,54) or that hes got an invite with 5S/6S (bidding 2S over 2red). Since declarer denies 3H north isnt short in H. My thought was that if north has C shortness we have to try for a D ruff and if hes short in D i dont see how we can put this down. Pts are likely to be 11-15-6-8 but if north has 7pts or less hes highly favorite to have a stiff clubs or a 6th spades. Unfortunatly i dont remeber if it was imps or MP.