[BunnyGo]

UDCA

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CLICK NEXT TO SEE THE PLAY UNTIL THE FIRST ACTUAL DECISION

Ok, I think that until you win the diamond queen, there is nothing to do. You give upside-down count at trick one, and then follow suit and try to look nonplussed about the diamond queen until it's too late for declarer.

Now what?

[vuroth]

Small spade. I'm either hoping we take the next 5 tricks in spades (say if declarer started with Jxx or Qxx in spades), or that partner has spade help and the ace of clubs, and can help me establish spades then return a spade to me when he gets in with the club.

I can't find a case where I need to lead the ten instead of small, but maybe there is one out there.

[inquiry]

What are our discard agreements (partner discarded low spade and low club).

Spoiler

Something to consider. The ♥8 is "4th best". So there are 3 cards higher than the "8". The dummy had the nine, so declarer has two of the following hearts (♥AKQJT) and partner has three. Start asking yourself what three heart honors might partner have and not lead an honor. For instance, if partner had ♥QJT8(x) he would lead the queen for sure, so Declarer's two higher hearts can not be the AK

There are not many heart combinations partner would have led the heart 8 from with three higher hearts. Try to work out what ones they might be (I will help with two: AQT8 is one, and AKT8 might be another). If partner held AKT8xx you can cash five hearts now to go along with your diamond queen and side ACE. But he doesn't have that hand, and pass over 1NT.

Three high heart holding by partner are
QJT -- he would have led Q
KJT8 would have led the JACK
KQT8 would have lead the Queen or King depending upon agreement
KQJ would have lead the king
AJT8 I would have lead the JACK (or maybe Ten, depending upon lead agreement)
AQT8 <=== likely, would lead the 8
AQJ8 would have lead the queen
AKT8 possible to lead the eight from this.
AKJ8 possible to lead the eight from this, but ACE or KING are both possible.

So if you look at the possible hand for partner, that is he holds AQT of hearts, or less likely AKT or AKJ lead hands..

What about how many hcp partner can have? West is 15-17 I guess (no announcement). So partner will have between 9 and 11 hcp. We think most of these (6 to 8) are in hearts. The defense seems clear. I WISH I had played the ♦7 on the first diamond (suit preference for spade that will become clearer). I will return the higher heart. If partner has only four hearts, we should still be able to grab 3♥, 1♦ and the ♠Ace. IF partner has five hearts we should be able to collect another heart too for down two.

All this of course depends upon a few issues.
1) We indeed lead 4th best
2) partners low spade and low club did not covey some special meaning

I have been wrong once or twice before, so this of course may not be right.

[wyman]

Spoiler

Exactly what heart holding do we think partner led from? 86 or 82 doubleton? And declarer has 7 hearts? Nope.

Counting points, partner has 9-11, and the spade 4 should be encouraging, so he has something there.

If that 8 wasn't 4th best, it's from 10862, and declarer has xxx/AKQJ4/Kx/xxx I assume, with at most 4 points in the blacks. If those 4 points are not the club ace, I need to hit spades now. If it's the club ace, I also need to hit spades now. I'll need 3 more spades and partner's club ace to beat this. HOWEVER, we shouldn't jump into this willy-nilly, since that would mean partner chose an honor-less 4 card major over a "chunky" 4-card major for the lead. That would be very weird!! So weird that I'm not playing for this.

So assume partner's 8 is 4th best, and now declarer can have a lot of hands. Partner has 3 of the 10,J,Q,K,A, but not a 3 card sequence. AKJ, AK10, AQJ, AQ10, AJ10, KQ10, KJ10. Declarer played the 4, which would be a weird false card, since it doesn't look like he wants me to think partner has the 2!, so pard probably has HHH82 of hearts here and a spade card. But this is a little weird too, since pard knows he only has one chance to signal me, and he gave me an encouraging spade. Ok, so I understand not pitching the H2 to encourage. But why not a high (discouraging) club? Because he also has like QJ10 of clubs and can't afford to? That seems unlikely. Anyway, declarer has 3 hearts left if I'm right, and I have the spade entry to lead them twice, so if pard has one of the 2 K-high sequences or the AJ10, he also needs the club ace (which he can't have if he has a spade card, so declarer is making with a heart shift) but if he has one of the other 4 hands, we set this with a heart shift.

Man this is kind of crazy. So if pard has KJ1082 or KQ1082 or AJ1082, I guess he has just enough room to have KJx4 of spades, so we can set it with a spade.

Honestly I think this is a toss-up, so I'm gonna trust partner and play a spade through.

[BunnyGo]

Sorry again for being slow to post the solution to this one. Below was the actual hand.

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You'll notice that I fell from grace and made the play that (double dummy, on this particular lie) is worst possible. I think Ben (Inquiry) got it exactly right with the heart return (taking the time to count the hand and place possible cards...always a good idea), although wyman and I both believed partner's signal in spades. I don't think I thought about it well at the table. I thought the situation might be one of the following two, which need a spade switch now:

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Note that only the spade return (whichever spade you think is most deceptive, probably the Ten is better than what I did) will give declarer even a chance to go down. I had fixated in my mind that the situation was like this, even though some patient thought would show it couldn't be.

Wyman's construction is another reason to lead a spade.

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This is more reasonable than what I was considering. In fact partner has made things a little more difficult than it should be by pitching an "encouraging" low spade.

What's the correct play? Ben would have won as the cards were (and is probably correct in general); Wyman had a reasonable thought that was incorrect this time; I was not thinking.

The main lesson again:

"Wrong thoughts are good. Correct thoughts are great. No thoughts are bad."

[the_clown]

Its beyond me why P didnt show majors over 1NT. With the actual hand a good declarer will take first round ♦, finess keeping you off lead.

[han]

Partner shouldn't encourage spades, he knows it is right for you to play hearts so he should make it easy for you. Wyman suggests that partner could hold 108xx, which may be true given the lead but partner should absolutely discard discouraging hearts with that. Bunny, you really need to consider partner's heart holding before you play at trick 1. If you start thinking about this at trick 5 then it is much easier to make the mistake to think that partner can hold AQ82, which obviously is impossible. It seems to me that you cannot make such mistakes at trick 1, another reason people always say that you should take your time at trick 1.

I agree with both comments of the clown, although what a good declarer might or might not do probably isn't very relevant. And you know what they say: Landy Every Day!

I agree with inquiry that we should play high-low in diamonds, but partner will get it right anyway: if we have the club ace declarer will go down anyway so partner will play spades.

[inquiry]

With actual hand, partner should have show a major two suiter over 1NT, AND SHOULD HAVE discouraged in spades and clubs, jus as han said above.

It is not at all unexpected that partner has AQT8(x). See the big arrow in my spoiler text above by that sequence.