Agree with Aqua — any time a TD is using his judgment, he is not "forced" to any particular conclusion.
I think the "Probst Cheat test" is this: if a cheat would have done a certain thing (e.g., hesitate before playing a card) with the intent of cheating, then if a non-cheat does that thing, he should be ruled against. I don't know how, or even if, John would apply his test to "could have known". The only thing the test, as I understand it, says about "could have known" is that the cheat
will have known, and that's only implicit in the assumption of "intent of cheating". I think it's incumbent on the TD who is going to rule a player "could have known" something that he demonstrate
how the player could have known it. I don't believe that broad generalization (anyone could have known), or blanket assertion (obviously he could have known), or reference to someone else (the cheat could have known/did know) cuts the mustard. There has to be something specific that leads the player in question to have a reason to know whatever it is.
I do disagree with Aqua's "we have merely exercised the powers in Law 12A1". There has to be a legal route to 12A1. That law reads
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Law 12A1: The director may award an adjusted score when he judges that these Laws do not provide indemnity to a non-offending contestant for the particular type of violation committed by an opponent.
So there has to be a violation of law (some law other than 12A1), and that law has to fail to provide indemnity for the offense. So if you start talking about 73D1, then go to 12A1, you're saying there has been a violation of 73D1. It isn't sufficient to assert "there has been an infraction". You have to show
how there has been an infraction. 73D1 involves "could have known", so the TD has to demonstrate
how the player could have known that (in the case at hand) hesitating might lead to problems. "Could have known" is not "did know", so the TD would not be saying "clearly, you thought of this at the time", but rather more "clearly, based on <whatever it's based on>, if this thought had occurred to you (as it will have occurred to a cheat) then you could have known..."
Actually, 73D1 doesn't saying anything in itself about "could have known". That's in
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Law 73F: When a violation of the Proprieties described in this law results in damage to an innocent opponent, if the director determines that an innocent player has drawn a false inference from a remark, manner, tempo or the like of an opponent who has no demonstrable bridge reason for the action, and who could have known, at the time of the action, that the action could work to his benefit, the director shall award an adjusted score (see Law 12C).
This is the law that leads to Law 12 — we don't need 12A1 at all. This law has several parts: there must have been a violation of an earlier provision of Law 73 (73D1, in our case), there must have been damage to "an innocent opponent" (whatever that means
), an innocent player must have drawn a false inference,
and the offender "could have known…" All of those parts have to be demonstrated.
I also think that given Law 73F, Law 12B2 precludes simply jumping from 73D1 to 12A1. 73F provides rectification for a violation of 73D1 (when the criteria of 73F are met). We apply that rectification, or none.