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The future of the Euro What is your opinion?

Poll: What do you think will happen with this currency in the forseeable future? (75 member(s) have cast votes)

What do you think will happen with this currency in the forseeable future?

  1. All these current problems in the EuroZone will be relatively fast fixed and Euro will remain the strong currency (23 votes [30.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.67%

  2. All members remain in the zone, but Euro will be a weak currency with strong volatility for a long time (16 votes [21.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 21.33%

  3. Several countries will be pressured to leave the zone (21 votes [28.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 28.00%

  4. All Euro-countries will return to their old national currencies (4 votes [5.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.33%

  5. Others (11 votes [14.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.67%

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#241 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2011-November-17, 17:35

View Posty66, on 2011-November-16, 09:02, said:

Ground Control to ECB ... take your protein pills and put your helmet on.


The pressure to make ECB to a sort of the bad bank which buys unlimited all these "junk" bonds grows from day to day. Merkel still try to fight against this, but she cant stand it very long IMO.
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#242 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2011-December-07, 11:07

Merkel’s Path: Brinkmanship for Debt Crisis

Posted Image

I love this part:

Quote

Despite her global prominence, Mrs. Merkel, an East German physicist turned politician, cuts a modest figure in Berlin. She still lives with her media-shy second husband, a quantum chemist, in the same apartment in the central Mitte District that they lived in before she became chancellor. Her daily commute carries her across the former path of the Berlin Wall, a reminder of her years trapped behind it.


Modesty is not in fashion at all over here.
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#243 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2012-January-14, 14:57

Poor standards by Standard & Poors? In Europe grows angry at the US rating agencies. No doubt, they have too much power and they have used it excessively during last 2 years. Which sort of the political game they play? Whatever the Europeans do to consolidate their debt problems( and they do a lot in last couple of months),these three companies response to it always with new downgrades ( 9 countries yesterday.) What's the name of this game?>>>>>Protecting the power of the US$ as the leading world trading currency at any cost? Damning Euro as a smokescreen for the real shape of the dollar? Its about time for the Europeans to opposite this pratice seriously and to cut definitely the power of these "big three", the power they don't deserve.
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#244 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2012-January-23, 18:15

View Postkenberg, on 2011-October-31, 13:31, said:

Yes, sefinitely there is more. Still, it surprised me to find that Greek workers put in more hours than German workers. If nothing else, the statistics warn me off of fruitless paths.


Well, if all Greek men worked 35 hours per week, all German men worked 40 hours per week, all Greek women stayed at home, and all German women worked 20 hours per week, this statistic would have German workers working an average of 30 hours per week and Greek workers working an average of 35 hours per week, non? (Uhm assuming equal numbers of men and women that is.)
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#245 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2012-January-23, 18:18

View PostAberlour10, on 2012-January-14, 14:57, said:

Poor standards by Standard & Poors? In Europe grows angry at the US rating agencies. No doubt, they have too much power and they have used it excessively during last 2 years.


And why do they have so much power? Oh, right, because governments (especially European ones) write so many regulations forcing institutional investors to act on S&P's ratings. In the bond discussion forum for private investors which I frequent, noone gives a sh*t what S&P and co. think. So if European politicians are upset at how much power S&P has... well... they are the only ones who can change it.
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#246 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-February-21, 11:52

Isn't this fun?

Posted Image

Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, who leads the group of euro zone finance ministers, showed the strain on Tuesday after all-night talks on a Greek bailout.
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#247 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2012-February-21, 12:18

Yes, lots of fun. Bought some more Greek bonds (maturing March 20th) today.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
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#248 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2012-February-21, 14:03

View Posty66, on 2012-February-21, 11:52, said:

Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, who leads the group of euro zone finance ministers, showed the strain on Tuesday after all-night talks on a Greek bailout.
<br /><br />The face of the tired man, who works very hard, but not more belives that this process will end successfully.
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#249 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-February-25, 16:07

Whats the problem?

Balance of payments?

Spoiler


or budget deficit?

Spoiler


Source: The great one.
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#250 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2012-February-25, 17:02

FRANKFURT—European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned beleaguered euro-zone countries that there is no escape from tough austerity measures and that the Continent's traditional social contract is obsolete, as he waded into an increasingly divisive debate over how to tackle the region's fiscal and economic troubles.

In a wide-ranging interview with The Wall Street Journal at his downtown office here, Mr. Draghi reflected on how the region's travails were pushing Europe toward a closer union. He said Europe's vaunted social model—which places a premium on job security and generous safety nets—is "already gone," citing high youth unemployment; in Spain, it ...


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Until Greece is willing to free up its labor force, which will be painful, I dont see how the economy will grow to any degree.

In terms of labor freedom, Greece is ranked close to the bottom in the world. Yeman and Ethiopia have much more labor freedom than Greece.
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#251 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2012-February-26, 11:42

I note with interest that Krugman's piece (Source: The great one.)
was a data driven narrative conclusion while the Wall Street Journal offers a narrative explanation with no confirming data.

Reality may indeed lie somewhere between these two views, but I am prone to think reality is more likely reflected in data than dreams and thus if reality is between these extremes it lies closer to the left boundary than the right.
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#252 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-February-26, 13:11

Reality is a crutch for people who can't handle lies. (paraphrasing Lily Tomlin)
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#253 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2012-February-26, 13:39

View Posty66, on 2012-February-26, 13:11, said:

Reality is a crutch for people who can't handle lies. (paraphrasing Lily Tomlin)



The authoritarian/individualist is hard to convince
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#254 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2012-March-07, 15:45

(Not so serious this time.) The european dream team in action, do they really know where does MS Euronic navigate ? ;-)

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#255 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-March-10, 10:14

My dream team looks more like Thelma and Louise with Christine Lagarde as Thelma and Angela Merkel as Louise. And Mario Monti as the Brad Pitt character.

Cool story about these 2 savvy babes here.
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#256 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2012-March-11, 18:15

So apparently investing in Europe now carries the same legal risks as investing in Ecuador. Good job, Mrs. Merkel!
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
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#257 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2012-March-11, 23:52

so the question becomes again keep the euro and bail them out or no?


As for Greece, clearly without more "labor freedom" nothing will improve.
With out more property laws that are clear and enforced, nothing will improve. If we dont know who owns the land and if they can sell it free and clear......forget it.
If we cannot fire,hire etc workers, increase productivity of workers...forget it.....


If countries such as Greece and France want to put more economic power in the same political hands fair enough...that is the debate.

I should add the USA.
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#258 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2012-March-12, 10:11

I was thinking about Merchant Marines. The US had at one time one of the largest, if not the largest, merchant fleets in the world. I suspect it was part of the engine that fueled our growth over the first 150 years or so the country was in existence. Now we have almost no US flagged ships? Why? Because government regulation made flagging ships in this country too expensive. Seems to me to be a case of "penny wise, pound foolish". That's just one example, of course. So I agree. In general, economic power does not belong in political hands.
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#259 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2012-March-13, 20:24

So Greece has defaulted on the privately held debt....33%...The other 67% held by gov agencies not allowed to default just yet.


So a default did not end the world or end Europe.......

I mean look at all I mean all of the posts that did not say just default.......


idots....
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Now if Iran is bombed this year.....that is another story.
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#260 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-May-14, 06:40

Krugman posted this yesterday:

Quote

Some of us have been talking it over, and here’s what we think the end game looks like:

1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.

2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.

3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.

3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing.

4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:

4b. End of the euro.

And we’re talking about months, not years, for this to play out.

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