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Scoring: IMP
4♥ - (4♠) - 5♥ - (X)
P - (6♦) - P - (6♠)
?
You are 100% certain that X is lightner. Do you?
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Now the tough part.
#1
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Posted 2009-September-06, 03:22
You might recognize the hand.
4♥ - (4♠) - 5♥ - (X)
P - (6♦) - P - (6♠)
?
You are 100% certain that X is lightner. Do you?
4♥ - (4♠) - 5♥ - (X)
P - (6♦) - P - (6♠)
?
You are 100% certain that X is lightner. Do you?
_____________________________________
Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.
Best Regards Ole Berg
_____________________________________
We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:
- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.
Gnasher
Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.
Best Regards Ole Berg
_____________________________________
We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:
- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.
Gnasher
#2
- World International Master without a clue
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Posted 2009-September-06, 04:59
oh my god, where is our second trick?, its either lightner or 7♥, but west's bidding looks so confident.
I'll get my cheap save thanks, will lightner the nest round.
I'll get my cheap save thanks, will lightner the nest round.
#3
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Posted 2009-September-06, 06:36
Why wouldn't you? You don't need a high percentage of success to warrant it.
"Tell me of your home world, Usul"
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
the Freman, Chani from the move "Dune"
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw
#4
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Posted 2009-September-06, 07:24
pooltuna, on Sep 6 2009, 07:36 AM, said:
Why wouldn't you?
teammates are rarely amused by a XX'ed vul slam in the out column
richard
#5
- Andy Bowles
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Posted 2009-September-06, 07:41
Assuming that they're in 6♠ undoubled at the other table:
If we pass and they make when they would have gone down after a double, that costs 1430 + 200 = 1630 = 17 IMPs.
If we double, they redouble, and it makes, that costs 6 x 60 + 50 = 410 = 9 IMPs
If we double, they pass, and it makes, that costs 6 x 30 + 50 = 230 = 6 IMPs
If there were no other risks, and we thought they'd always redouble when it was making, double would need to work just over 1/3 of the time to show a profit. If we thought they'd never redouble, we'd need it to work just over 1/4 of the time.
If we pass and they make when they would have gone down after a double, that costs 1430 + 200 = 1630 = 17 IMPs.
If we double, they redouble, and it makes, that costs 6 x 60 + 50 = 410 = 9 IMPs
If we double, they pass, and it makes, that costs 6 x 30 + 50 = 230 = 6 IMPs
If there were no other risks, and we thought they'd always redouble when it was making, double would need to work just over 1/3 of the time to show a profit. If we thought they'd never redouble, we'd need it to work just over 1/4 of the time.
This post has been edited by gnasher: 2009-September-06, 11:38
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#6
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Posted 2009-September-06, 08:44
gnasher, on Sep 6 2009, 08:41 AM, said:
... double would need to just over 1/3 of the time to show a profit. If we thought they'd never redouble, we'd need it to work just over 1/4 of the time.
That's good enough to persuade me to double.
Does the lead even matter? Probably (notwithstanding Fluffy's reasonable idea) it does, if we take the mere fact that the problem has been posed as a clue. But that aside I would expect 6♠ probably down with or without a double. The bidding suggests that LHO has two non-solid suits and RHO hasn't much in spades (double of 5♥), so partner may have ♠Qxx and a ♦ holding sufficient to make the suit unestablishable.
#7
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Posted 2009-September-06, 11:13
Someone really fears a XX after this auction?
I may fear 6 NT, but not a XX and I will double.
I may fear 6 NT, but not a XX and I will double.
Kind Regards
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#8
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Posted 2009-September-06, 11:27
gnasher, on Sep 6 2009, 08:41 AM, said:
Assuming that they're in 6♠ undoubled at the other table:
If we pass and they make when they would have gone down after a double, that costs 1430 + 200 = 1630 = 17 IMPs.
If we double, they redouble, and it makes, that costs 6 x 60 + 50 = 410 = 9 IMPs
If we double, they pass, and it makes, that costs 6 x 30 + 50 = 230 = 6 IMPs
If there were no other risks, and we thought they'd always redouble when it was making, double would need to just over 1/3 of the time to show a profit. If we thought they'd never redouble, we'd need it to work just over 1/4 of the time.
If we pass and they make when they would have gone down after a double, that costs 1430 + 200 = 1630 = 17 IMPs.
If we double, they redouble, and it makes, that costs 6 x 60 + 50 = 410 = 9 IMPs
If we double, they pass, and it makes, that costs 6 x 30 + 50 = 230 = 6 IMPs
If there were no other risks, and we thought they'd always redouble when it was making, double would need to just over 1/3 of the time to show a profit. If we thought they'd never redouble, we'd need it to work just over 1/4 of the time.
I agree, although I've never crunched the numbers like this.
I had a hand like this in Las Vegas with Gnome. I doubled and have up 1210. Strangely enough we had a very cheap sac.
I polled a few top players and the response was go ahead and double, even if you can't see the 2nd trick.
Hi y'all!
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#9
- enigmatic
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Posted 2009-September-09, 13:42
Well if they redouble, I can always change my mind and bid 7♥. So yes, I double for the ♦ lead.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
-gwnn
-gwnn
#10
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Posted 2009-September-11, 05:43
I would double especially since i have a hard time with slow pass "lightner".
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
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