Master Solvers BW Sept. 2005
#2
Posted 2005-August-13, 11:34
#3
Posted 2005-August-13, 13:05
#5
Posted 2005-August-13, 20:56
- hrothgar
#6
Posted 2005-August-14, 01:22
#7
Posted 2005-August-14, 01:44
Especially given the 3♠ bids that I've seen this week
#8
Posted 2005-August-14, 03:00
#9
Posted 2005-August-14, 03:26
mike777, on Aug 13 2005, 03:15 PM, said:
2S=P=3S=X
P=?
QT32=73=82=KJ752
Pard is supposed to have a spade void (weak 2 raise, they shd have a 6-3 fit).
In order to be able to double at the 3 level, he is supposed to have serious values.
Not only that, but, to double with a void, he must have primary honors that will take tricks if pard converts the double (when we make a takeout double with a void we must have compensating extra defensive values on the the side cos our pard leaves the dbl in more often and we can't lead trumps)
So the doubler's hand should be rich in AKs, something like:
void - AQxx- AKxxx- ATxx
With this handtype, I think 5C is a better bet.
Of course all these reasonings are based on 2S promising 6+ length; opps might have gambled a 5 suit weak 2, in which case leaving in the double should payoff
#12
Posted 2005-August-15, 08:51
Winston
#13
Posted 2005-August-15, 09:07
Chamaco, on Aug 14 2005, 04:26 AM, said:
This week only I have seen 2S-3S on 5-3, 6-2 and 5-2 fit (really true!) but I don't recall seeing it on a 6-3 fit.
- hrothgar
#14
Posted 2005-August-15, 10:25
5 club better bet but still requires Aces and a king.
So better take the almost certain + score by passing.4 clubs appears a reasonable alternative.
Do unto others as you would have others do unto you.
"Mediocrity knows nothing higher than itself, but talent instantly recognizes genius".
#15
Posted 2005-August-15, 10:41
Taking a sure plus which has a greater upside than anything except an unlikely slam..
#16
Posted 2005-August-15, 12:46
If I catch the ♠AKJ on my right, I have a double stop and this should make easily.
If I get the A(K)-J on my right, the suit blocks and RHO has to burn an entry to establish the suit.
Pass? Doesn't seem like the field call to me. Getting +500 is possible, but my pards like me to pull their takeout doubles. +300 rates to be real bad if 3N is making. I suppose if I had better spade spots, I might consider it more.
4♣ and 5♣ don't really appeal to me.
#17
Posted 2005-August-16, 10:22
helene_t, on Aug 14 2005, 07:22 AM, said:
I never studied the law, but I though for applying it you had to know how many ♣s and ♠s partner had, and I believe we have no clue here.
I would just bid 3NT, pass if I had only 4♣.
#18
Posted 2005-August-17, 06:51
pclayton, on Aug 15 2005, 01:46 PM, said:
If I get the A(K)-J on my right, the suit blocks and RHO has to burn an entry to establish the suit.
Pass? Doesn't seem like the field call to me. Getting +500 is possible, but my pards like me to pull their takeout doubles. +300 rates to be real bad if 3N is making. I suppose if I had better spade spots, I might consider it more.
4♣ and 5♣ don't really appeal to me.
I don't think the chief problem of this hand is lack of stoppers. It is lack of other tricks!
Good defenders will be able to read the spade position. If the lead shows worthless doubleton or tripleton, you can't count on declarer to play the remaining spades like crazy. If he has AKJxxx, he will gladly take the first spade and switch :-). With likely singleton on the table, you have exactly 0 spade tricks at the moment :-)
The biggest problem of this hand is getting 8-9 tricks in the side suits. Partner's distribution is most likely to be 1-5-4-3 or 2-4-4-3... If he indeed has 3 clubs, you need him to have the ace (AND hope for a good break. Q10xx behind you means you're dead.)
Of course, you COULD miss a 3NT if everything goes well. But, given your two longest suits, your best chance is in defending 3♠ doubled :-) - there the spade queen is a sure trick (and the 10 a chance for second) no matter what defense does, whereas in 3NT you rely on the defense to try and run the spade suit to make tricks for you in it... but if LHO happens to have a red 5card, RHO can take the first spade and make a deadly switch...
Quote
I never studied the law, but I though for applying it you had to know how many ♣s and ♠s partner had, and I believe we have no clue here.
No clue? Simple math. If you believe opps have 9card fit (or possibly 8card if they're really brave), statistically it is quite unlikely that your side has more than 9card fit in clubs... 8card fit is almost guaranteed. (In the 26 cards your line holds, there are at 4-5 spades, therefore you can have at worst 3x7 in remaining suits... but more likely have 8-9 clubs and 2x6 in red suits...
So the clues are here. At best, there would be 18 tricks, 17 is more likely. (That holds for suit contracts). So, if 5 clubs (11 tricks) makes, they will go 2-3 under - 3 being more likely, because of your spade holding.
I haven't studied LOTT for NT versus suit cases, but at first sight, the 5 clubs contract seems to get 2-3 tricks from spade ruffs, so you can expect the total amount of tricks to decrease by 2-3 - and since 3NT is 2 tricks less than 5♣, the same or better math applies
#19
Posted 2005-August-18, 07:14
ACTION=VOTES
4C--------12
3NT-------7
5C--------1
PASS-----7
A few comments:
Miles: 3nt, only way to get there
Wolf:3nt, run to daylight principle
Woolsey: 4c, Pass and 3nt are ridiculously unilateral
Rigal: 5c, partner may be stretching but I owe him a value bid.
Berkowitz/Cohen: Pass
#20
Posted 2005-August-18, 13:31