[pescetom]

MP

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Pickup partner with ten minutes of discussion.
1NT with singleton honour and then a merciful 3NT looked like the least of evils (no XYZ or NMF).

Lead ♠6, North contributing the K.

Plan your play?

[jillybean]

I would be in the same contract after opneing 1[diamonds, some partners don't like it when I rebid 1nt with a stiff.

I will hold up ♠Ace for 2 rounds, cash the ♥K then start on clubs.
With no indication to the contrary, I play low ♣ to Q.

Some Coast Salish people call this moon the Blackberry moon (pədgʷədbíxʷ) to signify the ripening of the fruit.

[WasWinM]

With the lead of a lower spade, it looks like LHO holds the length, if they are 5-3, so I hold up until the third round then run the club 10. If LHO has the Club K I don't think can make so my plan is to keep that hand off lead. If the club 10 loses to the J, I'll win the return in dummy (or hand if a heart) and try the diamond finesse. If that loses, I go back to dummy with the diamond K and lead the club Q. If the king is onside but the clubs are 4-1, I curse the bridge gods and go home.

[pescetom]

Biting my tongue to leave it up to other contributors.

The moon did not do wonders for blackberries or bridge here, but the figs are suddenly ripe.

[pescetom]

The experts seem to be on the fence until the full diagram arrives

MP

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I can imagine mikeh will chide me for not asking about NS carding agreements, but at this level it is often unproductive and the chances of a Director being ready to determine misinformation and act upon it are slim anyway. I decided it was better to play South for 5 spades.

So I held up twice, pitched a diamond on ♠A, unblocked ♥K and ran the ♣T (I don't think it can be right to play small to Q, jillybean, not that I was thinking as far ahead as WinM).

3NT-1 was a local bottom, with many in 3NT making (maybe on a hearts lead, which is not unreasonable given the auction). My partner was unhappy but I couldn't see what I did wrong, hence the post.

[WasWinM]

pescetom, on 2026-July-31, 09:15, said:

The experts seem to be on the fence until the full diagram arrives

MP

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I can imagine mikeh will chide me for not asking about NS carding agreements, but at this level it is often unproductive and the chances of a Director being ready to determine misinformation and act upon it are slim anyway. I decided it was better to play South for 5 spades.

So I held up twice, pitched a diamond on ♠A, unblocked ♥A and ran the ♣T (I don't think it can be right to play small to Q, jillybean, not that I was thinking as far ahead as winm).

3NT-1 was a local bottom, with many in 3NT making (maybe on a hearts lead, which is not unreasonable given the auction). My partner was unhappy but I couldn't see what I did wrong, hence the post.

You now get 1/2 MP as I'm there with you.

[mikeh]

Maybe you can explain to us why you thought it best not to cash the club Ace first. What holdings does running the 10, without cashing the Ace, pick up?

I went down in a contract by not dropping a stiff king about 40 years ago and haven’t made that same mistake since. Of course, there are often times when it’s better not to cash the ace…it depends on the hand but, here, knowing that we can’t let south on lead I don’t understand your line.

[pescetom]

mikeh, on 2026-July-31, 10:15, said:

Maybe you can explain to us why you thought it best not to cash the club Ace first. What holdings does running the 10, without cashing the Ace, pick up?

I went down in a contract by not dropping a stiff king about 40 years ago and haven’t made that same mistake since. Of course, there are often times when it’s better not to cash the ace…it depends on the hand but, here, knowing that we can’t let south on lead I don’t understand your line.

The same line that my partner endorsed, although he does not have anything near your curriculum.
All the same, I would be more easily convinced had you said it a day earlier.
All that I could calculate at the table (quite possibly wrongly) was stiff King 6%.
My instinct (FWIW) was that with clubs KJ in North being 25% a priori and only a little less after learning KQx in spades, cashing the Ace was a dubious prospect at MP.

With the benefit of hindsight, how about this holding?

MP

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[mikeh]

lol. I guess I’m well known for resulting


edit to remove snark:

To me, the central point, even assuming matchpoints which can distort percentages (sometimes it’s correct to risk a horrible result while that’s very rare at imps), is that one should play so as not to lose a trick to RHO. If he has the King, which is close to 50% if spades are 5-3, then your only hope is the stiff King.

But obviously that’s not the only consideration. Unlikely though it is, either defender could have the stiff king.

Plus if the 10 loses to the Jack, are you really going to run the Queen next?

[Kaitlyn S]

I would rather open 1NT than have to rebid 1NT - at least I show the correct strength.
Another advantage is that the bidding is easier after opening 1NT when you haven't discussed follow up sequences to a 1NT rebid.

[kerkido]

mikeh, on 2026-July-31, 18:11, said:

Plus if the 10 loses to the Jack, are you really going to run the Queen next?

Is there a reason you wouldn't? North is marked with the K in that case, else South would have taken the setting trick.

[mikeh]

kerkido, on 2026-July-31, 21:35, said:

Is there a reason you wouldn't? North is marked with the K in that case, else South would have taken the setting trick.

Maybe against you. Nor against 95% of people who play bridge. But if I held Kxx, as south, I’d certainly hope, and my partner would definitely expect, me to duck in tempo. The king is…silly. With AJ10xx he’d cross to dummy and hook clubs. So he lacks one of the AJ and in neither case should I be even thinking about playing the king.

Ok…your point is valid. I’m more used to being asked about the theoretical best line and I agree that there is a psychological reason for playing for a mistake.

[kerkido]

Ah. So if you start by leading a spade to the T and it loses to the J, but you wouldn't really run the Q next to pick up North's KJx because South may have ducked from Kxx and given you a chance to make, what would you do instead - play for Qxx diamonds onside?

[mikeh]

Well, it’s the club suit we are discussing. And in retrospect it would take strong nerves to go for the second undertrick, but I do believe that ducking with Kxx is the correct play. Not at imps maybe but definitely at mps. And, of course, if spades are 4=4, ducking in tempo is mandatory at imps. The fact that you are so certain that south would never duck the King means that you’re sure to run the Queen next time. Think about it….you seem convinced that nobody would duck, so why should I worry that you’ll change your line of play if north wins the jack?

[kerkido]

You're ignoring the question. You asked this:

 mikeh, on 2026-July-31, 18:11, said:

Plus if the 10 loses to the Jack, are you really going to run the Queen next?

That sounds like your answer would be 'no'. If your answer is 'no', what are you suggesting declarer should do instead (in the hypothetical where you decided to start by running the T), that is better than picking up KJx in North?

If your answer to your own question was yes, seems a strange question to ask. (And if it were yes, the question becomes, is the gain by picking up a stiff king better than the loss by no longer making this case - it may well be, I don't know, but you seemed to just ignore it and I don't know why.)

[Kaitlyn S]

This is matchpoints. 3NT by East is not a special contract, nor do I expect other declarers not to get a spade lead, so I want to play to maximize my total trick expectation. One normally doesn't make a safety play against stiff kings in matchpoints that could easily cost a trick on a normal layout. I will be the first to admit that on the actual layout in post #6 I would be down 1 and on most layouts where South ducks the ♣K, I will be down 2. I pay that price to get 4 club tricks when North has ♣KJx and when North has the king without the jack.
Nobody mentions what North leads back when she wins the ♣J. While I am almost ready to concede down 2 if South has the ♣K, what happens on the trick that North leads to may make it prudent to do something int he red suits. After all, the ♦9 can win the fifth trick! South may have dropped a heart honor on the first heart trick. Certainly a South defender that ducks king doubleton might be strong enough to withhold the ♦Q as well but if I believe that North has both heart length and diamond length, the odds are increased that South has the ♣K and perhaps I should be looking to the red suits to get my tricks.
Against that, there is a strong argument that if you run the club to North's ♣J, that you should play North for the king because if South has it, you are way behind the field at this point because many South players will have won the king and given the declarer the whole club suit. I have to think that argument wins the day so I'm running the ♣9 and and then playing North for the king. Actual hand, I'm down 1. Is this really a terrible result? I would expect almost everyone to be down 1.

[pescetom]

Kaitlyn S, on 2026-August-01, 18:09, said:

Against that, there is a strong argument that if you run the club to North's ♣J, that you should play North for the king because if South has it, you are way behind the field at this point because many South players will have won the king and given the declarer the whole club suit. I have to think that argument wins the day so I'm running the ♣9 and and then playing North for the king. Actual hand, I'm down 1. Is this really a terrible result? I would expect almost everyone to be down 1.

I agree with that argument.
You ask is down 1 really a terrible result? It was at local level, but nationally it was 40% with more people going down 1 than making.

An aspect that nobody has called into question is the discard from dummy on third trick (spades Ace). I figured that a club could not be right and a heart might cost an overtrick if an unlucky opponent held JT(x), so opted for a diamond: but in that case in my post #6 layout cashing clubs Ace not only costs a trick compared to running the T but two tricks sending us down.

[WasWinM]

It's closer than I thought originally. A singleton King is a 12.8% chance. Even if the singleton is RHO, you can still make 3 club tricks and your contract by playing Ace first. The only loss is precisely KJx or KJxx is RHO, which gives you a chance for an overtrick if KJx and making your contract with KJ87. I think the issue then is where to expect length. With the assumption that LHO has led from 5 spades, the likelihood is that any club length will be with RHO. With nothing more to go on, what is best given that reasoning? It is 6.4% for LHO to hold specifically K singleton. Is it still worth it to miss out on 4 club tricks when RHO has KJx to prevent that 6.4% from wrecking your plus score?

[pescetom]

WasWinM, on 2026-August-02, 11:32, said:

It's closer than I thought originally. A singleton King is a 12.8% chance. Even if the singleton is RHO, you can still make 3 club tricks and your contract by playing Ace first. The only loss is precisely KJx or KJxx is RHO, which gives you a chance for an overtrick if KJx and making your contract with KJ87. I think the issue then is where to expect length. With the assumption that LHO has led from 5 spades, the likelihood is that any club length will be with RHO. With nothing more to go on, what is best given that reasoning? It is 6.4% for LHO to hold specifically K singleton. Is it still worth it to miss out on 4 club tricks when RHO has KJx to prevent that 6.4% from wrecking your plus score?

I still think I was right (at least in this) at the table: a 4-1 split is 28%, so a singleton King is 5.6%, not 12.8%.

[mike777]

I do recall several write-ups over the years of top pairs playing in very top pairs events as practice for the big team event. They agreed to play imp style, safety plays matter, over tricks less so, etc
Bid close games, as opposed to stay out of close games.....
They go on to win the pair event.

Otoh perhaps the lesson was just there is not that much difference between long pairs events and long team game matches