[AL78]

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Always ominous picking up a big hand in fourth seat, there is a good chance I will have to enter the auction at the three or four level. What do you do now?

[DavidKok]

4NT, pick a minor suit. I think I'll settle for the 5-level, I have a bad track record playing partner for shortness in spades on this auction.

Incidentally I expected partner to pass the double with most balanced hands - this is often percentage, contracting for 5 tricks rather than 10(+) with a weak hand. It's curious that partner is not interested in hearts.

[Tramticket]

If you are confident that you have agreed 4NT as pick a minor on this specific auction, then I agree that this seems best.

Otherwise, I just raise to 5♦.

[AL78]

I dismissed 4NT as my partner being inexperienced would not appreciate it could mean pick a minor and she would probably take it as Blackwood. I made the practical bid of 5♦ and we missed one of three slams available:

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Pre-empts work, I was expecting two spade losers to be likely if partner couldn't bid 3NT but we have 12 tricks off the top in either minor or NT and the grand is there as well. You can see who held the heart suit.

Bonus question: This was one board of three in the round and on each board someone picked up a 20+ HCP hand (partner picked up a 23 count next board then LHO opened 2NT with a 20-count on the last one). What are the odds of that happening?

[Cyberyeti]

AL78, on 2023-September-08, 08:53, said:

Bonus question: This was one board of three in the round and on each board someone picked up a 20+ HCP hand (partner picked up a 23 count next board then LHO opened 2NT with a 20-count on the last one). What are the odds of that happening?

And how does that compare with the odds of the same player picking up 12 cards+ in 2 suits on consecutive boards (Axxxxx-v-v-AKQ10xxx and partner opened 1♠, then AJxxx, AJxxxxx, v, x) which we had at harrogate

[AL78]

Cyberyeti, on 2023-September-08, 09:01, said:

And how does that compare with the odds of the same player picking up 12 cards+ in 2 suits on consecutive boards (Axxxxx-v-v-AKQ10xxx and partner opened 1♠, then AJxxx, AJxxxxx, v, x) which we had at harrogate

You could work it out from here:

https://en.wikipedia...e_probabilities

Hand pattern probabilities. The odds are going to be extremely small as in a once in multiple lifetimes event.

[pescetom]

AL78, on 2023-September-08, 08:53, said:

I dismissed 4NT as my partner being inexperienced would not appreciate it could mean pick a minor and she would probably take it as Blackwood. I made the practical bid of 5♦ and we missed

Not sure why you were reluctant to bid 4NT if it would be taken as Blackwood (which I think is likely at any level, Pick a minor in this particular situation seems a bit weird unless your agreements firmly point that way): it doesn't matter if she replies plain Blackwood or RKCB 0314 as there is only the spades Ace missing, and if she has it then the clubs Queen should be no problem given seven spades on your left.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

I understand 4D, but ...3NT instead of 4D, should at least be considered.
4NT over 4D should be RKCB, how else do you check KC? There maybe an argument
for natural, but KC looks as good as this.

I hate to go down, so I would raise 4D to 5D.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[DavidKok]

I sometimes struggle to see strong players suggest that many 4NT bids must be asking for aces. On a typical hand, especially after being preempted, I have much more pressing concerns. Typically these include finding out what the optimal strain is, or asking for extras (similar to last train) after setting trumps. To have a shot at slam I need a trump suit, trick-taking potential, control in every suit and enough aces - typically in that order. Some of these also help on non-slam hands, and by frequency are much more useful to learn about than four or five specific cards in partner's hand.

P_Marlowe, on 2023-September-08, 11:32, said:

how else do you check KC?

I do not. It's just a convention, and not a particularly vital one. Other matters come first.

[pescetom]

DavidKok, on 2023-September-08, 11:40, said:

I sometimes struggle to see strong players suggest that many 4NT bids must be asking for aces. On a typical hand, especially after being preempted, I have much more pressing concerns. Typically these include finding out what the optimal strain is, or asking for extras (similar to last train) after setting trumps. To have a shot at slam I need a trump suit, trick-taking potential, control in every suit and enough aces - typically in that order. Some of these also help on non-slam hands, and by frequency are much more useful to learn about than four or five specific cards in partner's hand.

I do not. It's just a convention, and not a particularly vital one. Other matters come first.

I agree on principle and while not even a strong player, few of my 4NT bids ask for keycards (and none ask for Aces). Here a direct 4NT instead of Double would be two suited. But if I double and partner bids diamonds then our agreement is that 4NT is RKCB diamonds. Even if an artificial 4♥ (be it control or RKCB) was the only bid setting trumps with slam interest, I would expect 4NT to be pick one of the other two suits (clubs or hearts) rather than pick your own or my (better) minor. But the important thing about agreements is to sing on the same page.

[P_Marlowe]

DavidKok, on 2023-September-08, 11:40, said:

I sometimes struggle to see strong players suggest that many 4NT bids must be asking for aces. On a typical hand, especially after being preempted, I have much more pressing concerns. Typically these include finding out what the optimal strain is, or asking for extras (similar to last train) after setting trumps. To have a shot at slam I need a trump suit, trick-taking potential, control in every suit and enough aces - typically in that order. Some of these also help on non-slam hands, and by frequency are much more useful to learn about than four or five specific cards in partner's hand.

I do not. It's just a convention, and not a particularly vital one. Other matters come first.

In general I agree, but in the specific case I disagree:

I asked p to tell me, which suit he prefers, he did, but now I need another bid to recheck?
As I have written, you could sell me a natural 4NT in the given seq., you cant sell me 2-places to play in the given seq.,
and I do play 4NT quite often as 2-places, and I only play KC asks in a limited way.