[thepossum]

I couldn't see enough chances to go past 6 but quite a few did
MPs
If so which strain?

Any better ways to bid without seeing North's hand - note +ve is described as 8+ points but could be distributional

My crude calculations put it slightly better than 50% (no idea how much) and 6+1 scored ok
EDIT Then I realised I had miscalculated and wondered how anyone bid 7

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[DavidKok]

I don't like your methods over the 5♥ asking bid. But I hate your jump to 4NT. Why waste two levels of bidding space on a slam auction? You know that you are going to be looking for the ace of spades, queen of spades, king of hearts and a source of tricks (e.g. something suitable in a minor suit). 4NT gets you the first two (first three with better responses) but not the last one. Just bid 3♠, by jumping you are often forcing yourself into an uncomfortable guess at a high level.

In my opinion it is a beginners mistake to first burn all your bidding space and then break out the old "I calculated it to be over 50%, partner". You would not have to guess if you took a slower route (e.g. 3♠ will or will not fetch a 4♥ control bid, or might even give you shape information). The goal is to get to the best contract, not to make the most impressive calculation.

[AL78]

 DavidKok, on 2023-July-03, 00:35, said:

I don't like your methods over the 5♥ asking bid. But I hate your jump to 4NT. Why waste two levels of bidding space on a slam auction? You know that you are going to be looking for the ace of spades, queen of spades, king of hearts and a source of tricks (e.g. something suitable in a minor suit). 4NT gets you the first two (first three with better responses) but not the last one. Just bid 3♠, by jumping you are often forcing yourself into an uncomfortable guess at a high level.

In my opinion it is a beginners mistake to first burn all your bidding space and then break out the old "I calculated it to be over 50%, partner". You would not have to guess if you took a slower route (e.g. 3♠ will or will not fetch a 4♥ control bid, or might even give you shape information). The goal is to get to the best contract, not to make the most impressive calculation.

How do you find out about useful fitting cards in the minor suits in order to be able to deduce extra tricks there? It is not clear to me how that information can be obtained after a 3♠ raise.

[Cyberyeti]

3♠ is obvious, not least because partner might cue a minor suit singleton, which if he does, would make it less likely he has ♥Kx if he then shows that K.

To AL78 there are various scenarios where you after partner denies a minor suit control can bid 6♣ asking for the Q (or a 3rd round control if that's your agreement)

The difficult hand is AQxxx, xx, xx, Qxxx, it's easy to reach the grand opposite K♥ and Q♣ but to not to reach it opposite one of them and mirrored length is harder.

[DavidKok]

 AL78, on 2023-July-03, 02:23, said:

How do you find out about useful fitting cards in the minor suits in order to be able to deduce extra tricks there? It is not clear to me how that information can be obtained after a 3♠ raise.

You won't, but if partner cues a minor we can deduce shortness. 4♣ in particular significantly raises my expectations of slam, since it increases the chance that partner has got diamond and heart length. Conversely, a 4♦ control is a red flag. You may still wish to bid 4NT RKC over that - no harm, no foul. And if partner does bid 4♥ we have a pretty good picture of the hand.

[thepossum]

Thankyou for the constructive criticism. I am fairly direct usually.

What's most embarrassing is miscounting my tricks

For some reason to me and others it looked a possible grand

But yes I forgot we were in a game force auction too

I learned to avoid 3NT opening but one auction was very efficient
3NT-4H(Texas)-7S

[Cyberyeti]

What was partner's hand ?

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

#1 sure, you are looking for a Grand.
#2 Given that you are playing the Robot System, your auction was ok, the GIBs dont play mixed cue bids,
i.e. a slower auction via 3S is not giving you a lot more information.
#3 You are playing MP. This means, if you assume, everybody is in a small slam, bidding the Grand req. just
a bit over 50%. The assumtion, that everybody is in 6, is a tall assumption, you will find 1-2 players,
that may not even reach game, i.e. getting to 6NT is bound to be a reasonable score.
Not great, but not bad either.

#4 An alternative approach is to bid 5NT, ..., I am not 100% sure, if this is specific king ask, or asking for
the number. The approach is risky, you have only a 9 card fit, but the drop will be successfull >50% of the time,
so you may find it acceptable.


With kind regards
Marlowe

[Gilithin]

As others have said, starting off with 3♠ leaves you more options. But that's already been talked through so instead I would like to focus instead on the 5♥ ask. I think the easiest way of playing here is for 5NT to show the trump queen and the highest king (in this case ♥K) with 6♠ showing the queen and no side king. That leaves 5♥ available to show the trump queen, no side king and an undisclosed useful extra, which here would most likely be the ♣Q. These simple methods, even without getting onto the more advanced SSAs will get you to a good grand the vast majority of the time.

[thepossum]

Apologies everyone

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As I said it's funny that I miscounted my tricks and estimated better than 50% grand on a finesse and that's what it was

[P_Marlowe]

 thepossum, on 2023-July-09, 23:48, said:

Apologies everyone

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As I said it's funny that I miscounted my tricks and estimated better than 50% grand on a finesse and that's what it was

I am not good at this, but the slam is better than this, it will always make,
when the 4th diamond is with the King of hearts.
Just switch the opponents hands.
The show up squeeze is one of those rare cases, when the squeeze is better than
the simple finesse.
The added percentages are not enough to bid the grand.

[thepossum]

I still hang out in NB most of the time

If you can trust North to have at least a Jack or Queen

EDIT For curiosity I ran South's hand through a DD sim and it was almost 99% small slam and around 50 (sorry 60-70+) something grand - beginner luck, only being able to count 11 tricks
EDIT 2 Another funny thing the variance on spades is much worse than NT - scrub that, just the extreme worst outcome


But there is absolutely no way I could estimate beyond my expected sure tricks and a possible finesse