[Winstonm]

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What do you do?

[mikeh]

Pass at mps, suppress my urge to puke, at imps, and bid a confident 3H

I’m a card-carrying member of the chicken bidders association, hence the pass at mps. But, red at imps, I can’t quite bring myself to pass. I’m confident that passing wins on a frequency basis, but (despite the very real risks of going for a number) the game bonus, vulnerable, is too tempting. In my dreams partner has something like xx Q10xx xxxx AQx, and I can ruff spades with high trump.

In my nightmares, partner has Jxx x Qxxxx Jxxx and his hand never takes a trick, so we lose 3 spades, a ruff, a diamond, 3 clubs and a heart, -1100 at the 3-level, lol.

[TylerE]

Partnership style is important here. How solid are partners direct bids over 2M?

[Winstonm]

TylerE, on 2021-August-12, 17:11, said:

Partnership style is important here. How solid are partners direct bids over 2M?

Sound

[jillybean]

14 chunky points, I can't resist 3♥ at any scoring. I'm a honourary member of the turkey bidders association.

[nullve]

3♥ at both MPs and IMPs. Would have passed in 2nd seat.

[sfi]

nullve, on 2021-August-12, 17:44, said:

3♥ at both MPs and IMPs. Would have passed in 2nd seat.

I'm on the fence about whether to bid (the four small spades are a warning), but I don't follow your logic here.

In 4th seat you know RHO doesn't have a spade fit and you know partner didn't act with likely spade shortage. Surely both of these mean it's more dangerous to act now rather than less.

What am I missing?

[TylerE]

Winstonm, on 2021-August-12, 17:19, said:

Sound

Given that I think you gotta bid.

[Winstonm]

Spoiler

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How it went at the table.

[DavidKok]

I would pass at matchpoints and probably bid at IMPs, but I think it's very close to a pass. To tell you the truth I'd rather pass at IMPs but I know my partner never would, and it's important to have partnership harmony.

I've seen the full hand now, this looks like a deal where anything can happen, depending on declarer play and defensive play. Not an easy hand at all.

[nullve]

sfi, on 2021-August-12, 17:52, said:

I'm on the fence about whether to bid (the four small spades are a warning), but I don't follow your logic here.

In 4th seat you know RHO doesn't have a spade fit and you know partner didn't act with likely spade shortage. Surely both of these mean it's more dangerous to act now rather than less.

What am I missing?

It's also more dangerous to pass now than in 2nd seat, because over (2♠)-P-(P) partner would be able reopen on many hands that are just too weak to double or overcall with in 2nd seat.

I strongly prefer to have at least a 6c suit when I overcall at the 3-level, which is the main reason I wouldn't overcall in 2nd seat. But partner's most frequent shapes contain 3 H and 1-2 S, so I expect us to have some kind of heart fit.

I expect there be only 15 or 16 total trumps (suggesting I should pass) but I hope my weak spades (a positive adjustment factor) will compensate for that.

[Cyberyeti]

sfi, on 2021-August-12, 17:52, said:

I'm on the fence about whether to bid (the four small spades are a warning), but I don't follow your logic here.

In 4th seat you know RHO doesn't have a spade fit and you know partner didn't act with likely spade shortage. Surely both of these mean it's more dangerous to act now rather than less.

What am I missing?

You're missing that RHO also doesn't have an 18 count which he could have if you're in second seat.

[sfi]

Cyberyeti, on 2021-August-13, 05:46, said:

You're missing that RHO also doesn't have an 18 count which he could have if you're in second seat.

A misfitting 18 count is probably still within range of a pass. Misfitting 16 counts certainly are.

[sfi]

nullve, on 2021-August-13, 05:40, said:

It's also more dangerous to pass now than in 2nd seat, because over (2♠)-P-(P) partner would be able reopen on many hands that are just too weak to double or overcall with in 2nd seat.

This isn't the same as reopening at the 1-level. You're a level higher and the opening bidder has defined their hand better (they might save you at the 1-level if they have something more to say). I'm not sure you want to be as aggressive in the passout seat on this auction. Of course, if you do reopen light routinely then I understand why you might lean towards passing with this hand in second seat.

[nullve]

Interesting.

GiB says there are 8 tricks in spades EW and 9 tricks in hearts NS. So there are 17 total tricks. But there are only 14 total trumps, so LoTT is off by no less than 3 on this deal.

For many this must be proof that LoTT is nonsense.

[nullve]

sfi, on 2021-August-13, 06:07, said:

This isn't the same as reopening at the 1-level. You're a level higher and the opening bidder has defined their hand better (they might save you at the 1-level if they have something more to say). I'm not sure you want to be as aggressive in the passout seat on this auction. Of course, if you do reopen light routinely then I understand why you might lean towards passing with this hand in second seat.

I agree.

The way I play, over

(1x)-P-(P)

a double or overcall is expected to be weaker than in 2nd seat, and ranges for all advances are adjusted accordingly.

Over

(2x)-P-(P),

a double or overcall is expected to have same strength as in 2nd seat, so ranges are not adjusted. However, a double or overcall will sometimes be made with less in an attempt to protect the score. And hopefully overbidding to a hopeless game as a result will be better than selling out to 2x.

[Cyberyeti]

sfi, on 2021-August-13, 06:03, said:

A misfitting 18 count is probably still within range of a pass. Misfitting 16 counts certainly are.

Depends if opener can easily have 9-10 in which case the misfit may not matter, you just make 3N on power.

[Gilithin]

nullve, on 2021-August-13, 06:09, said:

But there are only 14 total trumps, so LoTT is off by no less than 3 on this deal.

What are you talking about? There are 16 total trumps.

[AL78]

Gilithin, on 2021-August-13, 12:28, said:

What are you talking about? There are 16 total trumps.

Only if both sides play in their best fit. If they play in their major fits both are seven card fits so 14 total trumps.

[Winstonm]

AL78, on 2021-August-13, 13:10, said:

Only if both sides play in their best fit. If they play in their major fits both are seven card fits so 14 total trumps.

If you elect to play 4H in a Moysian and ignore your 9-card club fit you still have a 9-card fit for LOTT purposes.