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Is this slam biddable?

#1 User is offline   mikl_plkcc 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 15:48

This hand guarantees a small slam on N-S on both and , with 50% chance of making a grand slam depending on the position of K.

I opened a strong 2 on this hand and got overcalled 2. Partner doubled it and got immediately preempted to 4. I bid 5.



Scoring is MP. The contract distributions are following out of 17 tables:
6: 2
5: 3
5: 4
4: 2
4: 2
3: 1
3: 1
EW4: 1
EW3: 1

According to the double dummy solver, par contract is 7x-4 by E.

Out of the 2 tables who bid 6, one was an uninterrupted auction 2 - 2 - 3 - 3 - 4NT - 5 - 6, another was a direct jump 1 - (1) - 2 - (/) - 6.

Out of the 3 tables who ended up at 5, one was an uninterruption auction similar as the above but ended up at 5, the other 2 competed 5 over 4 and the opponents stopped.

I'm interested in experts' view of this hand.

In my case, is a slam biddable after my aggressive RHO preempted my partner's double to 4? Would it be different if my partner had bid 3 instead of X?

And how will you likely bid this hand?
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#2 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 15:54

I have no idea what the experts do. I'd open 1, but as West I'd overcall 4 so off you go.
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#3 User is online   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 16:00

The opponent' are showing lots of Spades

You have a void
Partner has values

It's pretty clear that you have slam
The real problem is identifying strain

I think that 5!C is lazy.
I think that I prefer 5N

I don't like 3!H by your partner
(Suit is way too weak)

I think that you're lucky that the opps only overcalled 2
Alderaan delenda est
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#4 User is offline   mikl_plkcc 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 16:31

View Posthrothgar, on 2021-August-09, 16:00, said:

The opponent' are showing lots of Spades

You have a void
Partner has values

It's pretty clear that you have slam
The real problem is identifying strain

I think that 5!C is lazy.
I think that I prefer 5N


How do you know that we have a certain slam after the sequence (/) - 2 - (2) - X - (4)? Especially I still don't know if we hold the A and K yet? I only treat the X here as a game-forcing bid which asks me to choose a suit.

Quote

I don't like 3!H by your partner
(Suit is way too weak)

I think that you're lucky that the opps only overcalled 2


Only one LHO did a jump overcall out of 17 tables, which was 1 - (2). This is clearly opening value (12 HCP) so neither would I preempt sitting at West, especially against a 1 opening. Some even allowed the bidding went uncontested.

If I sat at West, against a 1 I would call 1, against a 2 I would also only call 2. If I had 7 and not the K then I would preempt 3 over 1 opening, or 4 over 2 opening.
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#5 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 16:33

I too would have opened 1C.

But in your auction pard has enough to raise to 6 clubs. Give opps credit - they made it hard
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
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#6 User is online   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 16:39

View Postmikl_plkcc, on 2021-August-09, 16:31, said:

How do you know that we have a certain slam after the sequence (/) - 2 - (2) - X - (4)?


Slam isn't certain. However, I think that the odds are good enough that I am willing to risk it (and prioritizing identifying the right strain)
Alderaan delenda est
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#7 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 17:03

Try bidding it with certainty over 1-4-X-6 which is what would happen with me at the table at these colours, the K will be wrong if you do.
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#8 User is offline   smerriman 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 19:18

1 is light years ahead of 2 for me. There's no risk of it being passed out, and you don't want to be making your first natural suit bid at the 5 level (or higher..)

If you're lucky enough for the auction to not be at the 6 level next time around, then you're far better placed.
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#9 User is offline   smerriman 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 19:23

View Postmikl_plkcc, on 2021-August-09, 16:31, said:

This is clearly opening value (12 HCP) so neither would I preempt sitting at West, especially against a 1 opening. Some even allowed the bidding went uncontested.

If I sat at West, against a 1 I would call 1, against a 2 I would also only call 2.

If partner wasn't a passed hand, then you might have a point over 1, but opposite a passed hand, what's the benefit in staying low in either case? You're not looking for slam, and at these colors it surely can't be right to sell out for anything less than 4 whatever your partner has. So you might as well put the pressure on.
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#10 User is offline   Gilithin 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 21:47

Can anyone suggest improvements on a start of: 1 - (4) - P - (P) -- 4NT? I guess the tough decision-making starts more or less from here.
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#11 User is offline   jillybean 

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Posted 2021-August-09, 22:07

I'll join the 1 chorus.
Searching for your own mistakes is the only way to learn this game. - Fluffy

And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly. - MikeH

SLOW DOWN! This is not a speedball :)
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#12 User is online   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-August-10, 04:12

I play a Multi2 with a strong minor option with 19+hcp, 22+ total points and 9+ playing tricks. (South has 10 playing tricks here)

If I didn't have that I would open 2 22+ w. 8.5+ playing tricks

North should be able to place South with a void if the 4 bid is based on LOTT so after South's 5 bid there are a maximum of 3hcp unaccounted for 40-8-10-19=3.

It has to be 6

With a 1 bid I don't think you can infer South's strength with the same clarity
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#13 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-August-10, 05:01

Inferring a void is a poor strategy, especially at this vulnerability. Also I understand the 40 (total HCP), 8 (North's hand) and 19 (promised by your 2), but what is the source for the 10?
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#14 User is online   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-August-10, 05:27

View PostDavidKok, on 2021-August-10, 05:01, said:

Inferring a void is a poor strategy, especially at this vulnerability. Also I understand the 40 (total HCP), 8 (North's hand) and 19 (promised by your 2), but what is the source for the 10?

If the 4 bid is made on the basis of LOTT then given North has 3s with no picture cards EW must have 10hcps in s



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#15 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-August-10, 06:10

Ah, so if the opponents checked the vulnerability and bid 1 higher than the LOTT suggests you are not just off one trick for the spade but a potential second trick as well if partner has a singleton honour? A poor gamble, in my opinion.
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#16 User is online   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-August-10, 06:37

View PostDavidKok, on 2021-August-10, 06:10, said:

Ah, so if the opponents checked the vulnerability and bid 1 higher than the LOTT suggests you are not just off one trick for the spade but a potential second trick as well if partner has a singleton honour? A poor gamble, in my opinion.

Possible although I guess it would depend how aggressive your opponents are especially opposite a strong only 2. With a singleton K/Q my hcp would need to be 1/2 higher so you end up only missing a Queen or Jack.
With the hands as they are 6 has ~97% probability and tweaking the hands, you still have over 50% for the small slam so in the long term 6 remains optimal. 7 is ~50%
My software bids it / unlikely that my partner wouldPosted Image
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#17 User is offline   HardVector 

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Posted 2021-August-10, 09:13

I'm actually ok with the 2 open. I'd be ok with a 1 open as well. The problem comes with dealing with the interference. Double usually shows a weak hand and should cause you to underbid. Opposite a truly weak hand, I'd actually expect 5 to be a sacrifice. If they bid 3 instead of messing around with the double, you will get to where you need.
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#18 User is offline   mcphee 

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Posted 2021-August-10, 13:17

having opened 2!C your partner has an easy 3!H bid and its hard to imagine not reaching 6
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#19 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-August-10, 16:13

View PostHardVector, on 2021-August-10, 09:13, said:

I'm actually ok with the 2 open. I'd be ok with a 1 open as well. The problem comes with dealing with the interference. Double usually shows a weak hand and should cause you to underbid. Opposite a truly weak hand, I'd actually expect 5 to be a sacrifice. If they bid 3 instead of messing around with the double, you will get to where you need.


2C actually makes this hand as presented easier as over the 5C bid north has an easy raise to 6C as xx is enough to support a 1-suited 2C opener.

But for the long haul, I think bidding over 2C is so clumsy that avoiding that opening as much as possible is wise.
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#20 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2021-August-11, 10:06

Opening 2C with a S void at red vs green is wanting to introduce your first suit at the 5-level if not higher because your opps were lazy to bid only to 4S (the 6-5 hand with almost solid spades should bid at least 3, then the other hand would go at 5 minimum). 1C followed here by 4NT would be a better description.

Anyway here, instead of bidding 5C, you can pass, which is obviously forcing, to see what partner does.

If they bid 5H (probably showing a decent 5-cd suit after the X of 2S), you can raise to 6 (7 might be there but you need HAK and DK and no accident, and partner would not bid 5 only with all that stuff).

If they bid 5m, you can show your S void, just in case, although even if partner has the HA, there might be just not enough winners / discards on the C for 7.

If they X, showing a non-offensive hand preferring to defend, you can now bid 5C that will show a really forward-going hand (you pass the bucket to partner, they chose, and you override their choice).

Here, partner could hope an A, a K, xx fit and a likely S shortage in your hand could be enough, or might push opps to save.
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