shyams, on 2021-June-14, 15:36, said:
Why does the BBC report the Govt. spin as if it were fact? The new article by Nick Triggle (
link) is merely parroting the party line without questioning a single statistic or hypothesis.
For example,
1. The much-touted herd immunity rate was somewhere around 65% of the population. England has already vaccinated 80% of all adults (which, probably is ~65% of the population). This number will rise by a further 2%-4% by June 21st. In effect, the herd immunity levels may have been reached -- so why is BBC not challenging the UK Govt on this point.
2. The original objective of the lockdown was "Protect the NHS". There is absolutely no indication that the infections are resulting in actual increase in ICU patients or in deaths or in any way stressing the NHS. If the very foundation of the lockdown no longer exists, why can't the BBC challenge the UK Govt about their rationale for deferring the normalcy date?
The BBC may not be in a position to assess if the deferral is merited or not. However, I find it really difficult to believe that the BBC has (over the past two weeks) only pushed the Govt's assessment of how a delay is important -- without giving any consideration to counter facts or counter arguments or robust challenges.
Annoying!
I am no fan of Nick Triggle, as is documented elsewhere in this thread. But this article seems fine.
0. The information given is not based on the government's "party line", but on the modelling done by independent scientists part of SAGE. I think this distinction is important. It's also roughly in line with what others have predicted based on simple extrapolations or more sophisticated models.
For the near future, it's really simple: cases are now growing fast, with a doubling time of 10-14 days. Hospitalizations are still following that growth - roughly, they are 4-5% of cases 10 days before.
Now to respond to your specific points:
1. Only 57% of adults have had both shots, one dose is less effective against delta, and the higher transmissibilty delta unfortunately raises the herd immunity threshold. Also, vaccinating by age means you effectively need a higher threshold, as most 20 year olds are more likely to hang out with other 20 year olds than with 70 year olds.
2. As I said, cases are rising fast, hospitalizations are starting to follow. The NHS could "cope" with a similar wave as in January, but it would mean it had to stop doing a lot of other things again. Not sure we really want to increase the NHS backlog.
Today's decision was really inevitable.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke