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Coronavirus Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it

#1261 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-April-18, 16:21

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-April-18, 15:17, said:

It isn't as blunt as you think. You may have been a Dean Lukin https://www.mensheal...t-of-a-lifetime when you were younger - but when he lost weight, his BMI returned to something sensible.


Possibly if I actually did anything in particular to build muscle, I didn't, that was my natural state. I played a fair amount of sport of many types, but never pushed weights, the only times I went to a gym was for aerobic type exercises.

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My first publication used Bayes theorem. I learned it in High school then applied it a couple of years later.
I suspect it is only "obscure" to the people that write in the Guardian. On the other hand, most of my friends from High School became lawyers/politicians and probably never heard of it.
Just because you don't know something doesn't make it obscure; you just don't know it.
Embarrassingly, I think I got it wrong last year and was corrected (with varying levels of kindness) on this Forum.

I noticed that the Brits have something called SAGE (https://www.gov.uk/g...ergencies/about).

When I said elsewhere that 1/100 year events happen every year, SAGE was exactly the kind of body I fantasised would exist worldwide to help us keep safe.
The Americans seem to have this in a very fragmented way (e.g. NTSB) or the Pandemic Playbook - but it is not taken (as) seriously by the government.

Someone told me when I was a teenager that there are many things that can't be worked out from first principles; you just have to know them. Guessing doesn't work.


I did a statistics degree so studied Bayesian statistics, but I suspect most people haven't.

SAGE has taken a lot of abuse here because they screwed up in the early days of the pandemic in the eyes of many and didn't recommend a lockdown fast enough. There is another body called independent SAGE consisting of scientists who didn't get invited to the real one which has proposed more radical measures. I don't know which one is right.
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#1262 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2021-April-22, 02:44

Our friend Nick Triggle from the BBC is still at it, minimizing the acceptance of 30,000-100,000 additional deaths after most have been vaccinated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56830398
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#1263 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-April-22, 03:50

View Postcherdano, on 2021-April-22, 02:44, said:

Our friend Nick Triggle from the BBC is still at it, minimizing the acceptance of 30,000-100,000 additional deaths after most have been vaccinated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56830398


I don't see any minimising of it

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Some models suggest there could be in excess of 100,000 deaths over the coming year or so. But others say it may be no worse than a bad flu season with around 30,000 deaths.

When the next wave will come is also not clear. Eventually it is expected the virus will become seasonal like flu. But that cannot be a given for this year - hence the summer warnings.

It's why government scientists are insisting we move forward carefully.

But why in the long-run we can learn to live with Covid.


The implication is that after this year we can live with it, but we have to be careful this year, which seems a reasonable interpretation of what the scientists are saying. Also the 100K is probably from the model that suggested everything would be 2-3 times as bad as it has proven to be at every stage. Unless an apocalyptic new variant appears, 100K seems horribly unlikely as by the time of the predicted peak, the vast majority of adults will have had at least one dose of vaccine and a small majority will have had both.
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#1264 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2021-April-22, 15:31

View PostCyberyeti, on 2021-April-22, 03:50, said:

I don't see any minimising of it


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A rise in infections is sadly inevitable, (...)Some models suggest there could be in excess of 100,000 deaths over the coming year or so. But others say it may be no worse than a bad flu season with around 30,000 deaths.

He is implying another 30,000 deaths would be a success.

There is nothing inevitable about another wave of this magnitude. Vaccinations. Hand out N95 masks to everyone working along-side others indoors. Proper sick-pay for those who have to isolate due to a positive test or a contact-tracing call and cannot work from home. A serious improvement of ventilation in public buildings.
And finally, when case numbers are low enough, do proper contact-tracing - not just calling up recent contacts (and don't restrict yourself to silly 2m rules), but also find out where someone got infected, and who else could have gotten infected by that person (backward tracing).
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#1265 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-April-22, 15:47

View Postcherdano, on 2021-April-22, 15:31, said:


Proper sick-pay for those who have to isolate due to a positive test or a contact-tracing call and cannot work from home.


That is the one thing that will have the biggest effect.

Obviously I can't verify these calls, but I've heard several people claiming to work in test and trace phoning in to radio programs saying that people are simply putting the phone down on them when they find out where the call is from, or they suspect using caller display and not taking calls from them to avoid being told to isolate.
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#1266 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-April-24, 04:25

There is something truly strange about the world we live in when these two headlines appear on the same day:

https://www.bbc.com/...d-asia-56870410

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Indian hospitals say their patients are dying because of a shortage of oxygen as Covid case numbers and deaths set new records for a third day running.


and

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989797337/out-of-thin-air-nasa-rover-makes-oxygen-from-martian-atmosphere

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Out Of Thin Air: NASA Rover Makes Oxygen From Martian Atmosphere

non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
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#1267 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2021-April-24, 15:40

View PostCyberyeti, on 2021-April-22, 15:47, said:

That is the one thing that will have the biggest effect.

Obviously I can't verify these calls, but I've heard several people claiming to work in test and trace phoning in to radio programs saying that people are simply putting the phone down on them when they find out where the call is from, or they suspect using caller display and not taking calls from them to avoid being told to isolate.

It's nice to know that the US doesn't have a monopoly on sociopaths.
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#1268 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-April-24, 16:17

Good article in Vanity Fair about vaccine distribution

https://www.vanityfa...untries-in-need
Alderaan delenda est
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#1269 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-April-24, 17:04

Vaccine distribution in Australia is useless.
To date, the roll-out is risibly small https://www.abc.net....t/13197518?nw=0

Politicians claim all kinds of reasons for this - shortage of supply, poor production, mean Europeans.

But for the past 30-40 years, successive governments paid lip service to science.
Quietly dissipating and denigrating the pursuit of academic work while pumping money into "important" endeavours like the Australian Institute of Sport.

To give some perspective about the value that the world places on Science, it is worth remembering that this year the Nobel prize for Medicine is worth $USD 1,192,546 (converting SEK10,000,000).
The Nobel prize is typically shared between 3 people (the maximum permitted in the rules) who are not dead (also in the rules).

Each of the winners of the US tennis open will get USD3,800,000 this year.

Much as I understand that hitting balls with sticks takes practice, this disparity makes no sense to me.

One beneficial effect of the coronavirus was that, for a short while, there was no sport on the radio.

non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
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#1270 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2021-April-25, 17:18

View PostCyberyeti, on 2021-April-18, 04:20, said:



I guess I shouldn't have wasted 30 seconds scanning this article. I gave up reading any news publication (even "respected" ones) for anything science related early last year

I hope poor Bayes' spirit doesn't have access to a Guardian subscription
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#1271 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2021-April-25, 17:46

View Postthepossum, on 2021-April-25, 17:18, said:

I guess I shouldn't have wasted 30 seconds scanning this article. I gave up reading any news publication (even "respected" ones) for anything science related early last year

I hope poor Bayes' spirit doesn't have access to a Guardian subscription

LOL
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#1272 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2021-April-27, 12:40

If you have children that attend this school you should get them out of there before they are taught to be terminally stupid.

Miami Private School Won’t Allow Vaccinated Teachers Near Students, Citing Misinformation

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In a letter to faculty and staff sent last week and obtained by The New York Times, school co-founder Leila Centner reportedly requests that teachers who have already been vaccinated inform the school so they can be physically distanced from students. Teachers should tell the school if they get vaccinated before the end of the school year “as we cannot allow recently vaccinated people to be near our students till more is known,” or wait until the school year is over to be vaccinated. Centner adds that teachers who receive the vaccine over the summer will not be allowed to return until clinical trials on the vaccines have finished.

In a separate letter, sent to Centner Academy parents on Monday, Centner cites a false claim that “tens of thousands of women all over the world have recently been reporting adverse reproductive issues” from being near people who have received the vaccine.

“It is our policy, to the extent possible, not to employ anyone who has taken the experimental COVID-19 injection until more is known,” Centner writes.


Presumably this is a QAnon or Fox Propaganda screwball conspiracy meant for their most severely mentally incompetent followers.
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#1273 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-April-27, 15:36

View Postjohnu, on 2021-April-27, 12:40, said:

If you have children that attend this school you should get them out of there before they are taught to be terminally stupid.

Miami Private School Won't Allow Vaccinated Teachers Near Students, Citing Misinformation

Presumably this is a QAnon or Fox Propaganda screwball conspiracy meant for their most severely mentally incompetent followers.


No, the same people exist all over the world.
If you can believe the world was created in 6 days, you can believe anything.
non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
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#1274 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2021-April-27, 16:16

View Postthepossum, on 2021-April-25, 17:18, said:

I hope poor Bayes' spirit doesn't have access to a Guardian subscription

I may be biased because I consider the Guardian a less-terrible-than-average-British-newspaper, but I don't think the article does such a bad job.

But it's a bit disappointing that they start the article with "only 1 false positive in 1000" and then proceed as if that has a well-defined meaning. They should either spell out "only one out of 1000 tested non-Covid cases result in a false positive", or they should subsequently have written "it depends what 1 in 1000 is supposed to mean". As it is, they make it more obscure than needed.

Anyway, newspapers, even The Guardian, are not great sources of science news and background. So far I agree with you. Better to read Scientific American or New Scientist.
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#1275 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2021-April-27, 23:00

View Posthelene_t, on 2021-April-27, 16:16, said:

I may be biased because I consider the Guardian a less-terrible-than-average-British-newspaper, but I don't think the article does such a bad job.

But it's a bit disappointing that they start the article with "only 1 false positive in 1000" and then proceed as if that has a well-defined meaning. They should either spell out "only one out of 1000 tested non-Covid cases result in a false positive", or they should subsequently have written "it depends what 1 in 1000 is supposed to mean". As it is, they make it more obscure than needed.

Anyway, newspapers, even The Guardian, are not great sources of science news and background. So far I agree with you. Better to read Scientific American or New Scientist.


It was the stuff about obscurity and anomalies that got me

To be honest even the alternative publications you mention are no longer (sorry, never were) high on my list
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#1276 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2021-April-28, 12:19

If you don't think Bayes theorem is obscure, you should get out of your bubble a bit more.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#1277 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-April-28, 12:51

View Postcherdano, on 2021-April-28, 12:19, said:

If you don't think Bayes theorem is obscure, you should get out of your bubble a bit more.


FWIW, my department at work often uses a (better framed) version of this
same example as one of our early round interview questions.
Alderaan delenda est
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#1278 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-April-28, 12:51

View Postcherdano, on 2021-April-28, 12:19, said:

If you don't think Bayes theorem is obscure, you should get out of your bubble a bit more.


FWIW, my department at work often uses a (better framed) version of this
same example as one of our early round interview questions.
Alderaan delenda est
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#1279 User is offline   StevenG 

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Posted 2021-April-28, 15:06

View Postcherdano, on 2021-April-28, 12:19, said:

If you don't think Bayes theorem is obscure, you should get out of your bubble a bit more.

I was wondering what theorems the average Guardian journalist would not consider obscure.
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#1280 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-April-28, 15:20

If Bayes theorem is obscure then all hope is lost.
non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
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