[lamford]

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Teams. International Event.

The great ARF leads the ten of spades against you. RHO (a strong player) wins with the queen and returns the 3. Which card do you play and why?

[cherdano]

In Universe 1 ARF led the ♠T from T9x like everyone else. But since he is ARF, we think he might have lead the T from ATx. We play the 8 and are the only declarer to go down.
In Universe 2, ARF is the only defender who found the T lead from ATx, and we go down when we go up with the J.

In reality, leading the T from ATx in partner's suit is quite common. But most of the times the tell will come from RHO - did he know his ♠Q was going to win the trick?
If RHO is really a robot, we have to play the odds - ARF would almost always lead the T from ATx or KTx, and RHO would always put up the Q from KQxxx, and sometimes from AQxxx. So I play the 8.

[Vampyr]

I guessed that Forrester had something like this, and got it right. But there is no law that says he couldn't have been dealt 109x. Also I didn't know that to 10 was a common lead from this holding. Declarer did get it right, as it happens; what happened at the other tables? Anything interesting? What about at yours?

[wank]

i would expect rho to falsecard from akq more than game theory suggests he should.

otoh LHO would often just be pissing a crucial trick or tempo away leading a pip - he's not to know if we have 9 cashers or not (we know he doesn't have a hugely negative holding like QX or KX of diamonds).

This post has been edited by wank: 2017-May-21, 00:08

[lamford]

Vampyr, on 2017-May-20, 19:44, said:

I guessed that Forrester had something like this, and got it right. But there is no law that says he couldn't have been dealt 109x. Also I didn't know that to 10 was a common lead from this holding. Declarer did get it right, as it happens; what happened at the other tables? Anything interesting? What about at yours?

Forrester did lead the ten from ATx and declarer got it right. Sometimes it pays not to be too good! At my table they led a club, but I eschewed the finesse and made ten tricks.

[cherdano]

wank, on 2017-May-20, 21:10, said:

i would expect rho to falsecard from akq more than game theory suggests he should.

Agree, I had come back to this thread to add this point only to find you had already made it

Quote

otoh LHO would often just be pissing a crucial trick or tempo away leading a pip - he's not to know if we have 9 cashers or not (we know he doesn't have a hugely negative holding like QX or KX of diamonds).

I don't think I agree - the risk of blocking the suit by leading low from ATx is just too high.