mycroft, on 2017-May-10, 15:53, said:
The answer, of course, is that Preempts Work, and every time I get to open a weak 2 playing my "anything goes" style, there's a chance the opponents will go wrong in ways they won't when you pass the same hand. Sure, partner may go wrong, too; we might miss game (or bid a hopeless game), we might let them go quietly down 2 with 140 on our way, we might have just got partner off to the wrong defence. But when we preempt, the chances are that the hand belongs to the opponents, so if someone is going to go wrong, it'll be them more often than us.
That somewhat answers the question, but it kind of doesn't.
"But when we preempt, the chances are that the hand belongs to the opponents, so if someone is going to go wrong, it'll be them more often than us."
Generally speaking, if you have 2 aces, you already have 1/2 of the raw materials to upset a 4 level game bid, so why in this scenario, do you feel that "chances are that the hand belongs to the opponents"? I am especially asking this if the pre-empt is done from 1st and 2nd seat with two aces. 3rd seat, anything goes.
When you make a preemptive bid from 1st or 2nd seat, how do you know that the contract belongs to the opponents when you hold two aces in your hand? Your partner has not spoken yet. He could have 0 HCP, 10 HCP, 12+ HCP?
I am in awe of the clairvoyance, but to bid preemptively with two aces just so we can hopefully trip up the opponents before we trip up ourselves seems less about statistics, science, ability, and technique and more about psychology and going all-in on the zero-sum mentality of the game.
I think what has happened is the bridge community has lost faith in the value of the normal auction and are resorting to alternative, unorthodox methods just for the sole right to open 1st. A well-oiled bidding system can only do so much. . .after a certain point, you need sneakier methods to become the leader of the pack. And here we are looking for that edge in our preemptive bids.
Sigh.