Defend 3N
#1
Posted 2017-February-08, 06:57
mmy:
AK62
J4
T953
763
............QT54
............Q9763
............4
............A52
1N 2C 2D 2N 3N
IN is 15-17
Partner leads the cT. This will be from a 4 card holding or longer headed by the J or KJ, KT9, T9x, or shorter.
You hop Ace and declarer drops the Q.
What next?
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#2
Posted 2017-February-08, 18:48
Phil, on 2017-February-08, 06:57, said:
mmy:
AK62
J4
T953
763
............QT54
............Q9763
............4
............A52
1N 2C 2D 2N 3N
IN is 15-17
Partner leads the cT. This will be from a 4 card holding or longer headed by the J or KJ, KT9, T9x, or shorter.
You hop Ace and declarer drops the Q.
What next?
The hand for declarer that makes most sense to me in light of the bidding is: Jxx, Axx, AKxxx, KQ. I really wanted to find a hand where it was critical to switch to a heart, but those seemed too unlikely. although a falsecard with the Q is certainly possible. A really good declarer might even play the Q from Qx, hoping to feign strength in the club suit - although for that to matter here declarer would have to be 2262.
It feels wrong, but I think the right play is believe the Q a true card from KQ tight and to return a club.
#4
Posted 2017-February-08, 20:42
Kaitlyn S, on 2017-February-08, 20:35, said:
I always knew you were smart - just misguided.
#5
Posted 2017-February-08, 22:42
Winstonm, on 2017-February-08, 18:48, said:
You can also shift to a heart on this layout.
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#6
Posted 2017-February-09, 00:04
Phil, on 2017-February-08, 22:42, said:
But if declarer has 2 club trick and 2 spade tricks, he has to have 5 diamond tricks, perhaps Jxx, xx, AKQxx, KQJ, but I assumed in that case partner may not have led 10 of clubs. I thought it as likely that a heart switch would present declarer with a chance for his 9th trick with a hand like xxx, Kxx, AKQxx, KQ
#7
Posted 2017-February-09, 10:19
Winstonm, on 2017-February-09, 00:04, said:
Well, if partner led the wrong honor it will be a long ride home
xxx Kxx AKQxx KQ looks like an upgrade out of 1N to me?
Ill stop nitpicking. I waffled between hands with open clubs: xxx Ax AKQxxx Qx and hands with open hearts xx xxx AKQxxx KQ and figured the former was 6x more likely. At least.
Declarer had the latter.
Should partner track a heart with Jxx AKx xx JTxxx?
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#8
Posted 2017-February-09, 10:51
Phil, on 2017-February-09, 10:19, said:
xxx Kxx AKQxx KQ looks like an upgrade out of 1N to me?
Ill stop nitpicking. I waffled between hands with open clubs: xxx Ax AKQxxx Qx and hands with open hearts xx xxx AKQxxx KQ and figured the former was 6x more likely. At least.
Declarer had the latter.
Should partner track a heart with Jxx AKx xx JTxxx?
That's a good question and I'm not quite sure. Can we analyze the win/lose position of leading a heart honor? It would be really questionable to lead an honor from AK10 in this auction, but AKx does not seem so problematic.
I appreciate your problem as defender but I don't know if there is a genuine solution other than a different (not necessarily better) lead convention. I always remember that Hamman wrote about really hating lead conventions that give away too much information.
But I have yet to win a board against Hamman, so I need more information that he does, it seems.
#9
Posted 2017-February-09, 11:12
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
#10
Posted 2017-February-09, 16:32
Phil, on 2017-February-09, 11:12, said:
I certainly feel for your problem. I would not have made the right play at the table. Don't know if that helps.
#11
Posted 2017-February-09, 21:30
♥ might be our suit, but Q9xxx takes quite a bit in partner's hand to make the switch right. The opening lead has also removed our entry for long tricks in ♥ anyhow.
OTOH, ♣ Q looks like a real card probably from KQ. If declarer is smart enough to false card from KQJ to induce a ♣ return, I'll tip my hat to him/her after the hand.
Think I'll apply the Fred Will principle on this hand. I'll be more comfortable explaining returning a ♣ versus an unsure ♥ switch in the post mortem. Like Fred would have said "If my partner leads a suit, I return partner's suit unless there's a darn good reason to do otherwise."
#12
Posted 2017-February-09, 23:55
Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.