[Jinksy]

From a quick glance at https://en.wikipedia...e_probabilities, and discounting West hands with 5 hearts as too unlikely (even a priori, let alone after silent opps), the initial chance of opener being dealt a void is about 0.03, whereas the chance of him having a singleton is about 0.21, ie about seven times more likely.

[MrAce]

For Andy.

Here is the poll I set for the hand that you think opener would not move over 4♦

http://bridgewinners...m-2-x5j3bs1q1f/

Here is the poll where we are responder.

http://bridgewinners...m-2-1wk6pwzsin/

Of course numbers of votes matters, but I suggest to look at the actual voters as well. But so far, if these people are bidding 4♥ with E hand, perhaps bidding 4 ♦ is neither as clear nor correct as Arend says, when we do not see the West hand.

[msjennifer]

Personally,I would like to know if opener will bid 4C if missing the SJ.
The way we play,we like to go slow on strong hands to find out what responder holds as his 1H bid may be on 5/6 points which may or may not be useful to the opener for bidding a slam in Heart.Opener does never use a splinter in our system,although many will dissent this method.
We play Super Precision and the bidding for this particular hand went as follows,
1C (16plus any)--1NT ( no 5 or more card suit,no singleton,balanced 8 to 13 HCP,)


2C(please clarify)-3C (clubs and another four carder and 11 to 13 HCP)
3D (Relay) -3H ( Heart suit)
4D(Controls ask)--4NT(4 controls)
6Heart -Pass.
The slam is not a bad slam if the trumps are 3/2 .Even if the spade finesse fails,there is a good chance that the DQ will come down when you ruff a diamond in the hand after discarding one on spade Queen. Or if you dare cash the last Trump in dummy then the opponent if holding both the missing Queens will get squeezed.(depending on your choice).

[Fluffy]

Cyberyeti, on 2017-January-02, 18:01, said:

We actually play 1x-1y-3N as big 4441 with support, so all the other sequences show at least 5x. We have another way of bidding the sort of hand most people hold for this sequence.

What is 1x-1y-4x in your system? we use solid suit (AKJxxx or better) but shows up never.

[Cyberyeti]

Fluffy, on 2017-January-03, 02:29, said:

What is 1x-1y-4x in your system? we use solid suit (AKJxxx or better) but shows up never.

We essentially have 2 ways of bidding this, as we play 1x-1y-2N as GF unbal with a semi forced 3♣ relay.

One is 4y5x22 big hand, the other is a fit hand where you only care about aces in the short suits, so x/x or x/Kx in the short suits.

The big one suiter is handled by 1x-1y-2N-3♣-3x (or 3N if x=♣) thus the direct 3x rebid is limited

[wank]

MrAce, on 2017-January-02, 14:21, said:

Lord help these people!They seem to not understand W would have splintered with a K less than what he has.
Without ♥K 5 level would not be safe if E made a move.

the 4441 shape is a big negative. i wouldn't splinter on the west hand minus the king of hearts, buy yes there are hands where i'd be off at the 5-level with a poor split. still, not making 1 try is pessimistic in the extreme.

[billw55]

Is it such a great slam? Seems like we need trumps to break and one of two finesses, which is about 50% (albeit before the opening lead).

[Cyberyeti]

MrAce, on 2017-January-02, 14:21, said:

Lord help these people!They seem to not understand W would have splintered with a K less than what he has.
Without ♥K 5 level would not be safe if E made a move.

a) I prob wouldn't splinter with a K less
b) If I did the auction would go 4♣-4♦-4♥ end because partner would know I could easily be splintering on that

[GrahamJson]

I'm with MrAce on this. West holds an absolute monster yet slam is far from laydown. Maybe I'd bid 4D on the east hand, but with such poor trumps and most of my values in clubs I think I would ld probably sign off.

Incidentally, I'm surprised that no one has suggested opening the west hand 2C. I've seen worse 2C openers.

[msjennifer]

GrahamJson, on 2017-January-03, 11:20, said:

I'm with MrAce on this. West holds an absolute monster yet slam is far from laydown. Maybe I'd bid 4D on the east hand, but with such poor trumps and most of my values in clubs I think I would ld probably sign off.

Incidentally, I'm surprised that no one has suggested opening the west hand 2C. I've seen worse 2C openers.

Yes.We see many a player opening 2C with worse holdings.Why no one suggested it on this hand is they have not the machinery how to develop it further when responders bids 2D,

[MrAce]

Cyberyeti, on 2017-January-03, 08:02, said:

a) I prob wouldn't splinter with a K less
b) If I did the auction would go 4♣-4♦-4♥ end because partner would know I could easily be splintering on that

Ok I understand that.

But when people debate bridge hands they really do not care what Cyber plays. Or whether Wank made his comment because he was not expecting a 4441 hand to splinter.
These are your custom evaluations and are not anywhere close to what most people, including almost all good players play.

• A 4441 hand is a splinter hand for %99 of the people.
• A King less than this is a perfect textbook splinter hand for % 99 of the people.

This does not mean you two are wrong or right.

[GrahamJson]

msjennifer, on 2017-January-03, 12:33, said:

Yes.We see many a player opening 2C with worse holdings.Why no one suggested it on this hand is they have not the machinery how to develop it further when responders bids 2D,

True, although I have seen some, actually quite a few, rebid 2NT on 4441. Personally I prefer rebidding 2H. If you were a little stronger you would have no choice. I assume that you wouldn't open 1D on AQJx AKQX AKJx X.

[Cyberyeti]

MrAce, on 2017-January-03, 12:54, said:

Ok I understand that.

But when people debate bridge hands they really do not care what Cyber plays. Or whether Wank made his comment because he was not expecting a 4441 hand to splinter.
These are your custom evaluations and are not anywhere close to what most people, including almost all good players play.

• A 4441 hand is a splinter hand for %99 of the people.
• A King less than this is a perfect textbook splinter hand for % 99 of the people.

This does not mean you two are wrong or right.

Which doesn't address point b), if you splinter on that, you have to adjust what you move with and the hand opposite becomes a clear pass over splinter/cue/signoff. As it happens the bigger hand doesn't sign off.

I didn't really go by what I play, because 4♣ is categorically a void splinter for us, but a stiff for most people.

[miamijd]

East can't really do much more than 4h, b/c as others have noted, West could be weaker yet still push to at least the 5-level over a 4d "Last Train" bid.

I think the problem is that the pair is putting too much pressure on the 4C bid. You can't have a bid that takes up more than two full levels and that could be anywhere from 16 to 21 HCP with a stiff/void. It's too wide a range. Since the splinter takes up a lot of room, the logical choice is for the splinter to take up the lower half+ of this range (i.e., go on only with a really good hand or with a magic fit), with the upper half handled by something like:

1D 1H
2S 3C (4SF)
3H 3NT
4H

Now East knows that West has a stiff/void club (has four in both majors, and with 4432, he'd have opened 2NT with 20-21 or raised to 4H immediately with 19) with a hand too good for an immediate 4C splinter. With East's hand, I think he can either use key-card or else bid 5H to ask about trump. Still, although it's a pretty good slam, it's not like it's one that I'm heartbroken if I miss; there's a decent chance it goes set.

Cheers,
mike

[cliffjenn]

Fluffy, on 2017-January-02, 03:38, said:

---

Use Dual-Forcing Bidding system in YJS (YANG's JUMP SHIFTS), which will be 2C* after series of bidding and requests, and will target a slam without any sweat;

2C* (19-21 points; Unbalances; 2D* opening is 22+ or 8 1/2 QWTs); 2D* (Waiting Bid)
This 2C* (19-21 ponts; )opening will SAVE lots of funny missing game (such as 19 point vs 4,5 points; and 21 points vs 3,4 points in natural bidding systems)
CASE 1.
1. 2H (5+ Hs)
2. 2S (5+ Ss) -> 2NT* (asking for 2nd suit)
CASE 2.
2NT (No 5-card major) -> 3C* (Asking)
CASE 3.
3D* (4-4-4-1 singleton in C) -> Many asking bids follow

YJS has many weapons in targeting slams...

[cliffjenn]

TEST ONLY

[msjennifer]

MrAce, on 2017-January-03, 12:54, said:

Ok I understand that.

But when people debate bridge hands they really do not care what Cyber plays. Or whether Wank made his comment because he was not expecting a 4441 hand to splinter.
These are your custom evaluations and are not anywhere close to what most people, including almost all good players play.

• A 4441 hand is a splinter hand for %99 of the people.
• A King less than this is a perfect textbook splinter hand for % 99 of the people.

This does not mean you two are wrong or right.

A 2D opening played as multi serves no purpose as practically all opponents know how to counter that.A weak 2D opening is also useless against any but novices and beginners.It was and still now my "personal" opinion to use it as is used in the Blue Team Club System for any 4441 hands with 17 to 24 HCP.It obviates the necessity to use splinters which only describe a 4441(any) but does not describe the exact values in the 3 suits.If the 2D opening is used as above then it is the responder who describes his hand and the opener
Is enabled to reach the right contract.

[wank]

msjennifer, on 2017-January-04, 01:15, said:

A 2D opening played as multi serves no purpose as practically all opponents know how to counter that.A weak 2D opening is also useless against any but novices and beginners.It was and still now my "personal" opinion to use it as is used in the Blue Team Club System for any 4441 hands with 17 to 23 HCP.It obviates the necessity to use splinters which only describe a 4441(any) but does not describe the exact values in the 3 suits.If the 2D opening is used as above then it is the responder who describes his hand and the opener
Is enabled to reach the right contract.

i predict a sharp mrace response.

[cherdano]

msjennifer, on 2017-January-04, 01:15, said:

A 2D opening played as multi serves no purpose as practically all opponents know how to counter that.

Not true.

Quote

A weak 2D opening is also useless against any but novices and beginners.

Not true.

[Cyberyeti]

msjennifer, on 2017-January-04, 01:15, said:

A 2D opening played as multi serves no purpose as practically all opponents know how to counter that.A weak 2D opening is also useless against any but novices and beginners.It was and still now my "personal" opinion to use it as is used in the Blue Team Club System for any 4441 hands with 17 to 23 HCP.It obviates the necessity to use splinters which only describe a 4441(any) but does not describe the exact values in the 3 suits.If the 2D opening is used as above then it is the responder who describes his hand and the opener
Is enabled to reach the right contract.

A multi is used because it frees up other bids, not because it's a brilliant bid in itself, it's the ability to use 2M for other hand types that makes a multi worth considering as part of an overall package. When I used to play one regularly, we used the strong 4441 as one of the multi options.

Weak 2♦ can work well, particularly if you play it VERY wide ranging. It causes a particular problem where the next hand is say 4234 and just below a 2N overcall.