[kenberg]

Edited a bit.

I played Friday in a two session event in Washington. This was a two session pairs game, with an upper limit of, I think, 10,000 masterpoints for entry. I would qualify to play if the limit were much much lower. We were the defense on the following hand, and I will say a few words about that later. But for now, I want to consider declarer's options. The hands are rotated so that S is declarer.

1♠ shows at most 4 spades

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Lho inquired about the alert of the 1♠, you explain that it shows a holding of at most four spades. Your partner expands on this, saying that it could be as few as 0 or as many as 4. Lho consults your cc, presumably noting that you are playing Flannery, and so from your minimum rebid of 1NT, along with your non-Flannery opening, he can infer that you do not have four spades. After a little thought, he leads the ♣ 3. Your right hand opponent plays the ♣J, then the ♣Q, then the ♣9. On tricks 3 and 4, lho takes his ♣A and ♣K. On the last club, rho has discarded the ♠3. At tricks 3 and 4 you have discarded the ♥6 (four heart tricks are plenty if you can get them), and the ♦7. Lho now plays the ♠2.

How do you see this going? It is true that at many tables the auction will begin 1♥-1NT(forcing) and N will declare, but I doubt this is relevant. You need to take nine tricks here, regardless of what happens at other tables.

If it matters, I doubt that it does, the opponents are playing standard leads and carding. But I suggest you do not make too much out of the spade 3 discard. Putting this another way, if you play low from the board and honor will appear on you right.

At the table, I was on lead and we did take the first four clubs. The discards were not exactly as I have described, but I think they should have been so I revised tampered with the truth a bit, hoping to make it more interesting.

You have 8 tricks on top, the defense has taken 4, so the position is tight. There are options but, so far, I have not seen an optimal line that will work against any lie of the cards. I think it doesn't exist.

[rmnka447]

If either red suit breaks 3-3 you have your ninth trick. You'll also have your ninth trick if the J doubleton falls. With split honors in both red suits, you can cash out the tops in one suit and then decide what to do in the other.

If you're familiar with squeeze play, you'll also note that you have 1 loser left. If you can find one player busy with guards in any two suits, you can squeeze them. The problem is sorting out what the squeeze might be. If the ♠ 3 is an honest discard, you might have some belief that West holds a ♠ guard. The ♠ 2 lead seems to imply 3 or 4 ♠ to an honor (unless the opponents lead small from xxx).

I'd duck the ♠ lead in dummy and win it in hand. If it's covered with an honor, you win K. If West has led from QJx(..), you'll be able to win with the 10 and have no further problems. Next I'm leading the ♠ 10 if East previously played an honor. If West hitches, you have to decide if West holds the honor or not. But most of the time, I'd expect West to cover (especially originally holding Q9xx to promote the 9) and then we win with dummy's A. Since all the honors A thru ten will have been played, dummy's eight be a threat. Note you'll also get to see East's play to the second round of the suit. If East held Jxxx in both red suits, then a red suit discard must be made on this trick, otherwise if East follows, he/she can't have guards in both red suits.

Now you have to guess which red suit honors to cash out first playing for somebody to guard ♠ and the other red suit. If your ♠ threat isn't established, then you have to cash out the other red suit and hope the squeeze worked.

[kenberg]

Starting as you suggest: It goes spade to the J and your K, spade Ten covered by the Q, taken by the Ace. Btw, the spade T might not be covered. You let it ride? Defender will not be hitching here, he had time to think. But in fact it will be covered so let's go with that.

I think you now want to go with diamonds rather than hearts. If the spade 9 lies with the long hearts in either hand, this will work. If, instead, you start with the hearts then on the third heart, W following, you have a problem. If E is about to sho out, holding four diamonds and the spade 9, he plays after dummy. Dummy cannot throw a diamonds, so dummy pitches the spade 8. Oops. We are squeezing the wrong dummy.

There are other options. Suppose you take the spade K at T5 but then play three rounds of diamonds immediately, tricks 6-8, pitching a spade from your hand.
Case 1. E shows out on the third diamond. Assuming that if anyone has four hearts it will be E (W could be 4=4=4=1 but this means an unlikely 6-1 split in spades) then we are home. E had to save his four hearts so he is now down to a single spade. We have A8 on the board, and the t in hand for an entry. In this case the A8 could be the A2 and we would be fine.E has abandoned spades, and we play three rounds of hearts squeezing W in diamonds and spades. the fourth diamond on the board is a threat, as is the spade 8

Case 2. W shows out on the third diamond. We cannot claim, but the situation is not hopeless. Assuming that W has four hearts to go with his doubletonm diamond, it is W that must now come down to one spade. If E has the guarded 9 or the guarded Q, we are going down. But if W started with Q92 he is squeezed.


How to compare these ways? And other ways? I'm not sure. I think a problem with your way is that the spade Ten may not be covered when it is led. Maybe it would be right to let it ride, maybe not.


Now here is what actually happened at the table. I was W, I led the club, we took four clubs. I'm on lead. I have a small doubleton in hearts to go with my four diamonds to the J. Declarer pitched a diamond and a spade, rather than a diamond and a heart. So I am thinking: If declarer can run five hearts he only needs the diamond K, likely on the bidding, to have 9 tricks. So I assume partner has four hearts including the J. I defend on the assumption that declarer has AK and three other hearts, and partner has the J and three other hearts. Given this assumption, it's 50-50 that partner has the T of hearts. So I led a heart. Partner has the J but not the T. Oh well. There was a little time left and I said something about considering a spade lead, maybe the Q, instead of a heart. Declarer assured me it wouldn't matter, that he was going to play to drop a red J and lacking that he would make it on a squeeze. But he has to choose the squeeze. He would. My partner also did not discard as I described. On the fourth club he pitched a diamond, not a spade. Declarer is very likely to now play me for four diamonds and my partner for four hearts, that is unless one of the reds is 3-3. As noted, cashing the top diamonds will now bring this in.

Playing the heart was wrong. I think the 50-50 reasoning for partner holding the T given the assumption that he holds the J and three others is right, but the problem is that even if he holds the JT declarer can still run the squeeze.


So I have to figure a way to help him choose the wrong squeeze. As mentioned, he had thrown a spade on the fourth club. Once I decide that I am going to lead a spade, the Q is as safe as the 3. If partner has the J, no harm is done. Having pitched a spade already, declarer no longer has the option of going up with the A on the board and leading toward his KT, since the T will fall under the A. And if declarer is holding KJ? He gets a trick, but he gets it if I lead the spade 3 also. As a practical matter, I think leading the Q is safe even if declarer had not pitches a spade. He could rise with the A and lead a spade toward his KT for a finesse, but would he? Of the various possible finesses he might take, this seems to be the least likely.

Nonetheless, he can make it regardless of which spade I play.

As the cards lie, I don't think we can beat this after we take our four clubs. So it's a shaggy dog story of sorts, but I found the hand interesting. If anyone has any good ideas as to what W should do at T5, I would be happy to hear them. Declarer can surely make this, we must find a way to get him to play it so that he doesn't make it.