[wanoff]

lamford, on 2015-September-13, 17:25, said:

I would bid 4S. Slam might make opposite some 15 counts, but no room to explore. 4H rates to go down most of the time, but may be only 300. A sim suggested that we were making slam 24% of the time, and rarely going off in 4S.

Possibly a butchered sim. Need to know the nt range and how often 5♠ is down.

[helene_t]

Suppose p has AJxx-Kxx-x-AJxxx. This is very pesimistic since many would find this hand too weak, and we give him vasted values in hearts. Even then, we will stop in 5♠ after asking for keycards and we will make that more often than not I think.

On the other hand, opps' bidding suggests that they have some shape so we could suffer a club ruff or trumps could split 4-1.

So I dunno. If I make a slam try it will be RKC, not 5♦.

BTW the sim should tell us (assuming the choice is between 4NT and 4♠) how often
- 5♠ is one down and we miss two keycards.
- 6♠ makes and we miss one keycard.

[wank]

i made a move. i bid 5d which i thought must show something like this - one couldn't be bidding at the 5 level as a passed hand without a heart control imo. yes you could do off at the 5 level but it seemed to me you'd miss more making slams by bidding 4s than you'd get to 5s down 1.

just for the record, partner had kj8x xx jx akjxx which you may or may not consider to be a 3 spade bid, and 5s was a lucky make (everything breaks). 4hx which i hadn't even considered tbh would have been 500 and win 2.

[lycier]

wank, on 2015-September-13, 17:05, said:

---

imps

4♠?
I can't accept this weak bid,this is not a good description.

4N to ask RKCB?
No,I think 4N ask bid don't resolve this hand problem.

5♦?
If opener have too many wasted hcp in ♥,6♠ contract will be very in danger.

5♠?
Here 5♠ is not to ask ♠ trumph quality,its exact meanings is to ask whether secondary control in 4th suit ♦.

I will take more aggressive bidding - 5♥.
5♥= I have a singleton in ♥ or sometimes secondary control. Of importance,the meanings of 5♥ is to give partner a chance of evaluations on the hand :
If unlucky opener have too many wasted hcp in ♥,sign off at 5♠,otherwise 6♠ contract will be hopeful.

[gszes]

lamford, on 2015-September-13, 17:25, said:

I would bid 4S. Slam might make opposite some 15 counts, but no room to explore. 4H rates to go down most of the time, but may be only 300. A sim suggested that we were making slam 24% of the time, and rarely going off in 4S.

The real issue is not 4s but how often does 5s fail vs making slam. If 5s fails say 15% and makes slam 24% it would seem very risk/reward favorable to try for slam.

[gszes]

4n

Sometimes cue bids are used improperly and I feel this is one of those cases. If p can show me 3 key cars I will bid 6 else I am signing off in 5. The bidding makes it seem obvious p doe not have too many values wasted in hearts and my shortness is a great asset in that case. Slam appears to easily be in reach opposite all but the worst imaginable 3s bids. If there are any finesses to be taken they will be taken through LHO (the one that bid 2h) and if any squeeze/throw-in needs to be applied LHO would seem ripe since they rate to hold the vast majority of the opps power. Many many positives it seems only a tiny amount of negatives my kind of guess:)

OH and opposite Wank's partner forget about all this and sign off because they always overbid:)

[jogs]

If you're willing to bid pass 4♠, try 5♣. 6♠ may fail where 6♣ makes.

♠ AKxx ♥ xx ♦ Qx ♣ AKxxx
or
♠ AKxx ♥ xxx ♦ x ♣ AKxxx

Spades break 4-1 and clubs break 3-1.

[phil_20686]

It just feels like you need too much for 6S here. Partner needs to cover 4 black suit losers and one red suit loser. Your shape just gives you too many losers, even though you will also have lots of winners eventually. This means that its pretty easy to construct hands where you are just off too many tricks. AKxx xxx x AKxxx would give you slam on a 3-2 spade break, but KJxx KQx x AJxxx needs luck to make 5 spades. If I had AKJx xxx x AKxxx to make slam cold I would have bid more than 3S.

The problem is that your partner was under pressure already, Axxx Kxx x AKxxx looks like a pretty great hand over 2H to me, much too good to put in along side a weak nt with 4 spades. An easy 3S, and 5S is like 30%. Then again, I would try for slam trivially if I could do so below game though.

[mikeh]

I don't think we are worth a slam try. We have weak, short trumps, and our diamond honours are likely opposite relative shortness. Partner made the second weakest raise available to him. He could have bid 3H or 4S, to show, respectively, a powerhouse (not yet promising spades) or a very good playing hand with values and shape. 3S is invitational to game. It is not forcing to game, so slam is 3 levels beyond the level to which he forced us, and this hand isn't three tricks better than he played us for. Especially with these trumps.