[gnasher]

There really should be a carryover.

[PhilKing]

gnasher, on 2015-August-24, 16:15, said:

There really should be a carryover.

Even with no carry-over, it's still important for your NGS rating.

[lamford]

FrancesHinden, on 2015-August-24, 14:35, said:

Really? Why?
I was only aware of the auction at four tables (two matches) before I read some of the replies to this thread, and at those tables there were 3 different opening bids selected and the modal one was not 3D.
Pre-empting style is hugely relevant. Opposite my regular partner I would pass 3S and not consider it even close; I'd simply be pleasantly surprised if 3S trickled one off.

We have to make certain assumptions or the reader cannot realistically make a decision. The auction was the same in both rooms up to this point in our match. I am sure that some will have opened partner's hand 4D or 1D, but those will not present the same problem.

If I give partner a forced hand such as x xx QJxxxx Jxxx which is about as bad as he can have, then doubling still rates to be a winner, although 3NT fades into obscurity of course. Opposite this junk, with the parameters I set, for better or for worse, the distribution is 0 4 85 11 0 starting with six tricks, so usually just one off. Of course, declarer play and defence is DD. Doubling compared with pass now gains only 2.42 IMPs. Did you really let through -790? Then you should clearly have been the second pair to defend 4S undoubled! Perhaps you were keeping your energy for the final, for which my congratulations.

[akwoo]

1) I'm surprised by that simulation result (w partner having x xx QJxxxx Jxxx), but not so surprised as to not believe it. I'm not too worried about the double dummy aspect there, because it really doesn't make too much of a difference. (Surely declarer will play you for the HQ and most spades if you double!)

2) The hand I'm worried about partner having isn't that one; it's x Kxx JTxxxxx xx (yes that's a favorable preempt in my book, at least against good opponents), where my lead of the diamond king blows the setting trick. (It might be instructive to do DD analysis specifying the opening lead of the DK.)

[rhm]

lamford, on 2015-August-24, 04:05, said:

https://app.pianola....9/Travellers/19 is the relevant link from the excellent Brighton Hub which uses Pianola to show all the results.

As you can see there were plenty of scores of -730 and +400 or +430 for NS. Of course one swallow does not make a summer and my simulation gave an expected score of +489 for double, +227 for 3NT and +131 for the supine pass. I lost the maximum of 16 IMPs when doubling the cold 3S against the 3NT bid on the same auction in the other room!

And in response to mgoetze, when I do the simulation again so that partner has at least five points in diamonds, it does not make much (relative) difference, the relevant figures being +599 for double, +377 for 3NT and +194 for pass. 3NT almost always makes, but is usually 3 or 9 in. Interestingly if partner has the ace of diamonds, 3SX only made once in 100 hands. Bridge Analyser gives a figure of +5.88 IMPs for double compared with 3NT. There were many 800s in the file I generated.

I am a fan of simulations, but in this case your simulation result will simply reflect your assumptions.
Do you assume diamonds to run?
Passing can hardly be right then.
My personal preferences are that a three level minor preempt opposite an unpassed partner should show a non-solid suit, but which should run opposite a doubleton top honor.
But this is nowadays hardly standard at these colors.
What about DBL?
Trouble is it depends a lot how short overcaller will be in diamonds and how long his spades will be.
Whatever you assume one thing is clear:
The shorter the diamonds the more attractive an overcall will look red versus white and the less attractive DBL becomes.
DBL is probably the long term winning action, the occasional double game swing against you notwithstanding.
The actual layout looks to me very unfortunate.

Rainer Herrmann

[phil_20686]

It seems pretty clear to double. Am prepared to concede 3sx, but seems like I have a good trump holding and we are going to have the balance of the points, so nine tricks by the opponents seem unlikely.

Hands that make it into a bulletin have a strong tendency to be hands where routine actions get you into trouble!